Still, Vegas is relatively unphased, and the Pacers are actually favored by three points here. We'll treat this game as any other in the meantime, and break down what we've seen from each team recently.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 29.11 DK - 29.25
The Celtics have consolidated their minutes for the playoffs, and Horford and Brown seem to be two of the biggest beneficiaries. I was close in deciding between Brown and Danny Green last game, but it seems clear that Brown is going to be more actively involved for the Celtics than I had assumed. Both are excellent value options on any site.
I'm not big on Kyrie or Tatum, but don't sleep on Gordon Hayward. He's looked oddly spry these playoffs, and is coming off of a game where he played 32 minutes. He didn't do a whole lot with it, but he's still pretty cheap at a somewhat thin position.
After those two, my Spidey-sense is going off about the rest of these pieces. We've seen the love-hate relationship with guys like Turner, Collison, and Sabonis, and I'd really rather not run any of those guys in cash.
Over/Under: 235
Vegas Projected Score: Golden State 123 - Los Angeles 114.5
Series: Golden State 2-1
So I guess we shouldn't pour dirt on the Dubs just yet? There's not much we learned from this one, unfortunately, since the Clippers couldn't manage to overcome a 33 point 4th quarter deficit this time around. The Warriors were still willing to rest their players, and eventually the Clips gave up. I think we should probably still use game 2 as our proxy for what to expect if things stay close, but whatever Vegas thinks about the total here we know that this one just might not.
One guy I'm keeping an eye on, though, is Andrew Bogut. He played 25 minutes in a blowout, and if the Clippers try and press the issue with Zubac he's got upside for more.
Vegas Implied Score: Toronto 107 - Orlando 103
Over/ Under: 207
Series: Toronto 2-1
One of round 1's most competitive series saw a new hero emerge in game three in the form of Pascal Siakam. We already knew that the Raptors were going to rely on him for 40+ minutes per game against Orlando's more than competent bigs, but it was pretty cool to see him pop off for 30 and 11 on 13-20 shooting and continue the dominance he started the series with in the first two games.
It was also a welcome sight to see another close game, since it looked like maybe Toronto was going to flip the script and generally just flip out on the Magic.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 23.38 DK - 24.04
Some of the less obvious value from the Toronto side, I guess. Lowry was a crime against humanity in game one, but it's clear that the Raps still want to run him for 38-42 minutes in close games, and you're getting him at a pretty deep discount on DraftKings in particular. It was nice seeing him hit double digit assists, and even if he's the third offensive option at this point he could be a decent value.
Danny Green is just a guy you play if you need a shooting guard. He's still cheap, and he's right there in the Jaylen Brown area. I'll take Brown on the basis of his minutes last game and his higher upside, but I think you can play both if you need to.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 28.5 DK - 29.69
Vuc will be something like an automatic play on DraftKings at these prices. The Magic are happy to let him outlast Gasol, and he presents a pretty sizeable offensive mismatch on Siakam. He dropped 22/16/6 with 4 defensive stats last game, and I think that's actually a reasonable proxy for what we can expect going forward.
Fournier has tailed off considerably after a very active game one, and was a huge part of the loss this last time around. Still, he's one of a small handful of Magic that can stretch the Toronto defense, and I think they are sort of priced in to continuing to give him 7 or 8 three point attempts per game.
Vegas Implied Score: Oklahoma City 114.75 - Portland 107.25
Over/ Under: 223.5
Series: Portland 2-1
The Thunder managed to get on the board on the back of inspired performances by Russ and Schroder, somehow dodging an auto-loss after George shot a horrid 3-16 from the field.
I'm honestly not sure how much we really learned from this game, though. It was nice to see the Thunder take a game, but I mean, they were 8 point favorites and all. Vegas has the Thunder by 6 here, so let's see what we've got if we're assuming that both teams will be able to follow through on their game plans.
We saw Kanter's minutes tick down, but that looked to also be because of foul trouble, so I think we can proceed with a 30+ minute projection here as well. All in all, our system prefers peripheral pieces like Al-Farouq Aminu and Enes Kanter, though it can tolerate Damian Lillard as well. I'd guess Aminu sees the most ownership for cash games thanks to positional scarcity.
The biggest takeaway on the Oklahoma City side was the resurgence of Dennis Schroder. The German looked to be a series staple after 36 minutes in game one, but people were understandably spooked after he saw just 20 minutes in game two's blowout. Bench guys are always going to be something of a question mark, but with George having so much difficulty creating right now the Thunder seem pretty reliant upon Schroder for the spark he brings off the bench. I think he's a high floor, high upside play.
Our system actually likes a number of Thunder today - Westbrook, Grant, Adams, and even George (though I'm skeptical there). Russ is probably the premier payoff option today, as his through-the-roof time of possession and the likelihood of a close game gives him as high a floor as any star on today's slate.
image sources
Daily Fantasy DraftKings and FanDuel NBA Picks & Projections Playing NBA DFS Nightly? Join one…
Week 9 NFL DFS plays for DraftKings and FanDuel
Packed slate of NBA action on FanDuel and DraftKings
Thursday night NBA picks for DraftKings and FanDuel
Daily Fantasy NFL Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 8 Sunday 10/27/24 Now’s…
A main slate of NBA DFS action on FanDuel and DraftKings.