Charlotte Hornets guard Kemba Walker (15) grabs a rebound against the Utah Jazz during the second half in an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Jan. 27, 2016, in Salt Lake City. The Jazz won 102-73. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
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Speculation is a dangerous game in the DFS community but we really have no choice when we're playing the final day of the NBA season. There are so many injuries and so much resting going on, that we really won't have a good idea who to play until right before lineup lock. With that in mind, we're going to key in on guys who have something to play for, as those are really the only players we can trust. The teams we really want to key in on are the Charlotte Hornets and Detroit Pistons. These two teams are battling for the final playoff spot in the east and that makes them tough to fade.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 47.03 DK - 48.64
With Charlotte fighting for the final playoff spot in the east, Walker could be in for his best game of the season. The fact that the Hornets blew out the Cleveland Cavaliers on Tuesday only adds to Walker's intrigue, as his 27 minutes there should allow him to play at least 40 minutes of action here. A guy posting a 30 percent usage rate while averaging close to 25 shots per game is hard to fade when he's looking at 40 minutes, especially in a do-or-die game. Prior to Tuesday's blowout, Walker had at least 49 DK points in four-straight games and it's clear that he's in full takeover mode with everything on the line.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 47.12 DK - 48.89
It's unclear just how much Lillard will play here with Portland locked into the four-seed but he's a tough fade in this spot. What we really like about Lillard is this matchup, as he faces a Kings defense who ranks 26th in total defense while playing at the third-fastest pace in the NBA. That's just a small part of it, as they also allow the most fantasy points in the league to opposing point guards. That's crystal clear by the fact that Lillard is averaging 44 DK points per game in two fixtures against Sacramento this season. In addition, the Portland point guard is averaging 47 DK points per game across his last 17 games in total.
Also Consider:
Darren Collison has seen his price drop around $6,000 on both sites and is worth a shot against a Hawks team who ranks dead-last in points allowed and first in pace.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 40.31 DK - 40.32
The Spurs are trying to avoid landing the eight-seed in the west, so DeRozan should be safe to deploy. What makes him an enticing option here is his decreased price tag. This is a guy who's been hovering around the $9,000-range all season long but he's currently in the $8,000-range on both sites. A small recent slide is the main reason why but DeRozan is still averaging 39 DK points per game across his last 11 outings in total. Dallas really struggles with opposing small forwards too, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to them this season. Not to mention, DeRozan is averaging 49 fantasy points per game in three meetings with the Mavericks this season.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 36 DK - 36.63
Narrative plays are always dangerous but there's something to be said about a hall-of-famer playing the final game of his career. The biggest comp to Wade is Kobe Bryant and if Wade comes anywhere close to that usage, we would be ecstatic. In Kobe's final game, he took 50 shots and played 42 minutes. While we don't expect 50 shots from Wade here, 30 is not out of the question. Wade will also play close to 40 minutes, as he should be leaned on heavily with Josh Richardson sidelined. The narrative play is enough reason to use Wade but he's actually been balling out recently. In fact, Wade has at least 31 DK points in six-straight games, averaging 35 fantasy points per game in that span. Miami being eliminated from the playoffs on Tuesday only adds to Wade's value, as he's now free to take as many shots as he wants in a meaningless game.
Also Consider:
Tyler Dorsey has been starting in the absence of Mike Conley and is tough to fade in the $4,000-range.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 52.86 DK - 54.02
George just hit a game-winner in Tuesday's comeback victory against the Houston Rockets and that shows just what sort of heater he's on right now. Not only does George have at least 47 DK points in five-straight games, but he's also averaging 50 fantasy points per game in that span. What really makes him enticing here is the fact that Oklahoma City is battling for playoff positioning. A win here would guarantee the six-seed for the Thunder and they want to do everything possible to avoid the Golden State Warriors in the first-round. While Milwaukee has one of the best defensive units in the league, George collected 36 points, 13 rebounds, three assists and three steals en route to 66 DraftKings points in his one matchup with the Bucks earlier this season.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 37.18 DK - 37.7
Hezonja was scratched because of a sickness on Tuesday but he's nearly impossible to fade if he suits up. What's really encouraging about Hezonja is his sky-rocketing usage, as he's been starting at point guard recently. In fact, Hezonja is averaging 37.3 minutes and 18 shots per game across his last three games while approaching a usage rate close to 30 percent. His fantasy production is just as stellar, with Hezonja averaging 48 DK points per game in that span. All that makes Hezonja tough to overlook but if he ends up sitting, don't forget about Kevin Knox, who recorded a double-double in his absence on Tuesday.
Also Consider:
If Stephen Curry and DeMarcus Cousins sit like we expect them to, Kevin Durant could be a nice pivot if he returns to the lineup. If all the Warriors are out, don't forget about guys like Quin Cook, Damion Lee and Alfonzo McKinnie.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 46.46 DK - 48.71
Griffin had to depart Tuesday's win early because of a nagging injury but he's tough to fade in a game that means everything for the Pistons. A win here would secure a playoff berth for Detroit and it would be hard to imagine Griffin not suiting up for that. What really makes him an intriguing option here is this matchup, with New York allowing the most fantasy points in the league to opposing power forwards. That's evident in their first three meetings of the season, with Griffin averaging 43 DK points per game. Outside of that dud on Tuesday, Griffin's been rolling recently too, scoring at least 41 DK points in six-straight games while averaging nearly 50 fantasy points per game in that span.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 26.88 DK - 26.37
With the Knicks playing for exercise, they've decided to lean on Kornet heavily. It's done wonders for his fantasy value, with Kornet scoring at least 39 DK points in back-to-back games while dropping a season-high 47 fantasy points on Tuesday. That sort of performance shows the sort of upside this guy presents and it's hard to believe he's still in the $5,000-range. The role is hard to argue with too, with Kornet averaging 37 minutes and 12.5 shots in that two-game span. That usage alone makes him tough to fade and he's easily one of the best bets on the board to surpass 5X value.
Also Consider:
Thaddeus Young pops up highly in our projections, as he should succeed against a Hawks defense who plays at the fastest pace in the NBA. Don't forget about Dirk Nowitzki possibly playing his last NBA game after taking 31 shots on Tuesday.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 60.97 DK - 60.7
Drummond is in the same boat as Griffin, as he's one of the only players actually playing for something. In Tuesday's must-win game, Drummond collected 20 points, 17 rebounds, five steals and three blocks in 38 minutes of action. Those sort of lines has become commonplace for Drummond, who has at least 53 DK points in six of his last seven games. That sort of upside is hard to fade, especially when you consider the fact that the Knicks allow the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing centers. In Drummond's three games against this lackluster defense, he's averaging 48 DK points per game.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 28.56 DK - 28.84
With Dewayne Dedmon out of the picture, Len has recaptured starting center duties. In 30 starts this season, Len is averaging 26 DK points per game. He's been even better recently, averaging 32 DK points per game across his last 13 starts. What's really amazing about Len is the upside he presents, as he's scored at least 41 DK points 10 times this season. Most of those games actually came in starts and it's clear Len can get it done when given the minutes. He's actually had success against this tough defense too, averaging 24 DK points per game in just 22 minutes of action. If he can continue that 1.1 DK point per-minute average, Len should be looking at a 30-point floor in this expanded, which would be north of 5X value.
Also Consider:
If Karl-Anthony Towns misses this game, Gorgui Dieng is a nice bet in the $4,000-range after a monster line on Tuesday.
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