DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 4/10/19 - Early Slate

The early slate gives us a game in Coors with a hefty run total, plus Trevor Bauer looking to rebound from a disappointing (?!) no-hit bid last time out.

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Pitchers

Trevor Bauer FD 11500 DK 11000
Opponent - DET (Matthew Boyd) Park - DET
FD - 40.06 DK - 21.92
Bauer really struggled with the walks his last time out against the Blue Jays, offering up six free passes in seven innings while striking out eight. That being said, he had a no-hitter going when he exited in the 7th. So the truth lies somewhere in between. He’s clearly an ace arm, as evidenced by the 2018 campaign that saw him strike out more than 11 batters per nine, limit the walks to less than three per nine and rock a 2.21 ERA (3.14 xFIP). It all spelled top-tier ace level production and he’s in a great spot against a righty-heavy Tigers’ lineup. While *only* a -141 road favorite here, you have to like him as the overall top points play on the early slate of games.

Tyler Glasnow FD 8900 DK 9700
Opponent - CHW (Reynaldo Lopez) Park - CHW
FD - 36.58 DK - 19.77 Glasnow converted to a starter late last season and started this year with two solid performances. He’s pitched five and six innings respectively, allowing only one earned run and striking out ten. You love to see the 5:1 K:BB ratio considering walks had been something of a problem from when he came up with the Pirates a few years ago. Those seem to have gone by the wayside and he’s no exhibiting rather elite control in the short term. The White Sox start the year striking out at a 26% rate against righties which is along the lines of the preseason projections. This is a team with a lot of swings and misses in their bats. Glasnow is expensive to pair with Bauer on DK, though it’s possible if you sacrifice a bat or two.

Also Consider: Nick Margevicius (FD $6400 DK $7300) against the Giants. He didn't show it in his first start, but has had strikeout potential in the minors.
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Team Cash Stacks

Tampa Bay Rays

Park - CHW
Opposing Pitcher - CHW (Reynaldo Lopez)
Vegas Implied Run Total - 4.37
Reynaldo Lopez continues his run as one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball who is still gainfully employed by a ball club. He finished last season with a 5.22 xFIP over 188 innings with a 7 K/9 rate. He’s started this season in much the same fashion. His first nine innings have him walking more batters than he’s struck out and an early 8.22 xFIP. I usually wouldn’t call out small samples like this except that they simply reinforce his career trend. He’s clearly a pitcher we can stack against and I suspect the Rays are somewhat popular on this early slate.

Potential Players to Stack

Austin Meadows (FD $3000 DK $4100)
Tommy Pham (FD $3400 DK $4500)
Ji-Man Choi (FD $3200 DK $3800)
The Rays aren’t a team we typically think of stacking on big slates, but they are in a great spot on Wednesday. They are out of their home park that depresses power and into Guaranteed Rate Field (this thing has changed names like 1K times) which allows power at an above average rate.

Meadows is coming off a huge day, reaching base five times with a home run and four RBIs. Our system doesn’t take that kind of short term result into account, but it’s always fun mentioning. He’s shown incredible patience to start the season and should continue to hit leadoff when the Rays are facing righty pitching. He’s coming a solid, mid-tier pricing on both sites and could be a very popular play on these early slates.

Pham has been better against lefties for his career, but was good in the reverse split last season sporting an .815 OPS and .352 wOBA against righties. His 11% walk rate nods to the patience and we aren’t worried about stacking him against the righty platoon on Wednesday.

And finally, Choi is proving quite the pickup. Between the Angels ad Rays last season he finished with an .862 OPS and 10 home runs in a little north of 200 plate appearances. He was even better against righties with a .908 OPS and 146 wRC+.

Atlanta Braves

Park - COL
Opposing Pitcher - COL (Jeff Hoffman)
Vegas Implied Run Total - 5.51
While there’s no early line on this game, one has to assume the Braves come in with the highest implied run line of the early slate. That’s what happens when you face an arm like Jeff Hoffman in Coors. Dude really struggled in 2017, finishing with a 5.19 xFIP over 100 innings with the Rockies and striking out only 5.19 batters per nine. He spent most of 2018 in the minors but is back to make a spot start on Wednesday. It won’t be a walk in the park (not at this altitude at least).

Potential Players to Stack

Freddie Freeman (FD $4900 DK $5700)
Ender Inciarte (FD $3700 DK $4800)
Josh Donaldson (FD $3800 DK $4900)
Freddie Freeman is the obvious play here, though he’ll cost you. It could be worth it. He finished with close to a .900 OPS in 2018 highlighted by a .388 OBP and is off to a torrid start this season. If there’s a bat to pay up for on this slate, it’s Freeman. He’s already incredibly difficult to strike out which bodes well in his matchup against Hoffman.

Ender Inciarte will likely hit in the leadoff spot and is a heavy favorite to make contact in this matchup. He struck out only 12.6% of the time against righties last season and has the speed upside (50 steals combined over the last two seasons) that really helps to raise the fantasy floor.

Donaldson and Acuna are in the worse sides of their splits, but should hit second and fourth respectively which gives them about as good plate appearance expectation as you’ll find on this slate.

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