DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 4/8/19

Monday's MLB action brings us another series starting in Coors, a matchup between the Astros and Yankees, some daytime baseball and much more.

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Pitchers

Justin Verlander FD 10700 DK 10400
Opponent - NYY (Masahiro Tanaka) Park - HOU
FD - 42.05 DK - 23.69
Pitching isn’t pretty on this slate. We have some names and talent, but every single one of them is uncomfortable to say the least. Out of the top four arms, there isn’t a safe match-up. The Astros are deadly. The Cardinals and Padres are tough against southpaws. Even our top arm in Justin Verlander is in a risky match-up with the Yankees. They’re a lot weaker without Stanton, Hicks, and Andujar in the lineup, but still have some power.

Verlander struggled his last time out against the Rangers, but got BABIP’d to death and just didn’t have his K pitch. Going back home, where he pitches a lot better, he should be comfortable and back to his easy seven inning self. Verlander, at 35 years old in 2018, held a .260 wOBA against both sides of the plate while striking out 12 batters per nine. He’s still one of the best pitchers in baseball and it’d because he has the most efficient fastball in baseball. The Yankees are obviously dangerous, but they do strikeout 23.3% of the time against righties and are missing some of their most important bats. Verlander is the safest pitcher on a slate full of uncertainties at the position.

Madison Bumgarner FD 9200 DK 9300
Opponent - SD (Eric Lauer) Park - SF
FD - 37.6 DK - 19.75
Madison Bumgarner has been very solid to start the season and the Padres have one of the lowest implied run totals on the slate. Yes, they’re a lot better against righties and made a lot of improvements, but they’ll strikeout a ton (24%) and this ballpark really depresses power. Bumgarner is fairly priced and always has upside as one of the guys that can get stretched to 100 pitches early in the season. He isn’t the pitcher he once was, but a .290 combined wOBA with a 8 K/9 is nothing to whiff at. He is only 29 years old, so you never know when he could return to his superstar self. He’s still an elite arm and the Giants have to lean on him. He’s a cash game play on this slate, but is still a clear step down from Verlander for me.

Eric Lauer FD 7100 DK 7500
Opponent - SF (Madison Bumgarner) Park - SF
FD - 30.38 DK - 15.26
There isn’t much in terms of affordable pitching here. Eric Lauer already faced this Giants team once and failed pretty well. This is more about the Giants being absolutely terrible and less about Lauer being dominant. He's not terrible by any means, but he's a middle of the road pitcher that we wouldn't be paying attention to on a typical slate. We're grasping for pitching value and there's a good reason to with Coors on the slate. If Lauer can repeat his performance against the Giants last time, he'll give you the chance to roster 2 or 3 more bats in Coors Field or Camden. The ballpark is elite for Lauer, with Oracle Park (Formerly AT&T) ranking in the bottom three for power year in and year out. This game holds the lowest over/under on the slate and that's saying something when Tanaka and Verlander are facing off. Vegas doesn't expect many runs to be scored here and Lauer is only a slight dog. I love it if you want to pay up for bats.

Team Cash Stacks

Atlanta Braves

Park - COL
Opposing Pitcher - COL (Kyle Freeland)
Vegas Implied Run Total - 4.95

There are a ton of offenses that we can target on this slate, but let’s just start with the most obvious of the bunch. Whenever there is a game in Coors Field, there will be a double-digit total and we will want to focus in on the hitters. Kyle Freeland and Julio Teheran are both talented pitchers, but everyone is susceptible to the factors. Let’s touch on the Braves first. Kyle Freeland is a dynamic young arm who can strikeout 10. Even in Coors Field. With that said, this game's 10.5 over/under is the highest of the slate with the Braves and Rockies the only teams coming in at more than five implied runs. That should spell a lot of offense in this matchup and it could be worth it to pay up.

Potential Players to Stack

Ronald Acuna (FD $4900 DK $5500)
Josh Donaldson (FD $3900 DK $5000)
Ozzie Albies (FD $4600 DK $5200)
Johan Camargo (FD $3000 DK $4500)

The prices are all super inflated, so there's almost no way you're comfortably fitting in more than a couple of these guys. You can stack, but you'd be sacrificing in a major way elsewhere (most likely pitching).

Freeland is an above average arm, so you can't just stack willy nilly. Acuna tagged lefties in his rookie season with a .992 OPS and .415 wOBA. Meanwhile, Donaldson has career numbers against southpaws that you dream about. His .966 OPS and .296 ISO against lefties is about as good as you'll ever see over such a large sample size (almost 1K plate appearances).

Freeman is the best hitter in the lineup and was solid in his reverse platoon last season, posting an OPS over .900 and 11% walk rate.

Albies should hit leadoff here and also tuned up lefties in 2018. If you still want exposure to this offense and don't want to pay this much, Johan Camargo is a solid value play. He's smacked lefties over the last couple years and has been hitting behind the core against them.

Colorado Rockies

Park - COL
Opposing Pitcher - ATL (Julio Teheran)
Vegas Implied Run Total - 5.55

Potential Players to Stack

Charlie Blackmon (FD $4000 DK $5200)
Trevor Story (FD $4300 DK $5400)
Nolan Arenado (FD $4300 DK $5400)
David Dahl (FD $4200 DK $5100)

It seems basic, but I don't love the bottom of this order meaning we can concentrate our stacks firmly on the first few batters in the lineup. If you want the Rockies, your gems are in the top of the order. Blackmon has held a .380 wOBA against righties for years now and David Dahl is going to match that this season.

As for Story and Arenado, they prefer lefties, but mash righties as well at respective .361 and .370 wOBA's. Julio Teheran is only going to last 4 or 5 innings, and this Braves bullpen will struggle with Coors. Both of these teams are in play, but I think I like the next team we're about to touch on even more than both.

Oakland Athletics

Park - BAL
Opposing Pitcher - BAL (Andrew Cashner)
Vegas Implied Run Total - 5.37

Potential Players to Stack

According to Vegas, the Athletics are the best play outside of Coors Field. They’re projected to score 4.90 runs and are -120 favorites with a 9.5 total. Andrew Cashner is one of the leagues absolute worst pitchers and there is no debating it. He’s held a 5.00+ xFIP since 2016 and posted historically bad numbers in 2018. Against lefties, a .361 wOBA and 5.00 xFIP. Against righties, a .370 wOBA and 5.38 xFIP. Combine those with a laughable 5.82 K/9 and 3.82 BB/9 and you have yourself 32-year-old Andrew Cashner. He’s only getting worse every year and is already close to a 6 xFIP on the season. The Athletics have a ton of dangerous bats and it’s just a matter of how you want to attack Cashner with them.

Potential Players to Stack

Khris Davis (FD $4000 DK $5200)
Matt Chapman (FD $3700 DK $4800)
Stephen Piscotty (FD $3800 DK $4700)
Robbie Grossman (FD $2700 DK $4000)

The top of this order should be extremely popular. If they're not over 20% owned, I think you have an edge. People may stay away from the righty-righty match-up, but you don't need to. All three of these right-handers held .340+ wOBA's against opposing righties in 2018 and Davis was closer to .400.

Grossman is the switch-hitter of the group and while much better for his career against lefty arms, should still be at the top of the lineup in this matchup. Hitting leadoff has so much value in DFS that you can forfeit some of what he gives away in the worse side of his platoon.

Andrew Cashner is just as bad against righties as he is lefties, so feel free to ignore the platoon splits and pick the best hitters. Cashner seems to always find a way to escape these games, so let's hope the A's can get him out in the second or third inning.

Seattle Mariners

Park - KC
Opposing Pitcher - KC (Homer Bailey)
Vegas Implied Run Total - 4.92
I didn't think Homer Bailey should be pitching anymore, but he found a way to stay alive with a five-inning, eight K first start of the season. I'm going to let the larger sample size of him being terrible dictate his prospects going forward though. He’s been a bit unluckier than Cashner, but give off the same kind of vibe. Bailey allowed a .394 wOBA to lefties and a .382 to righties in ‘18, combined with a crazy 2+ HR/9. You have to love the Seattle power bats who shouldn’t be highly owned and have a ton of upside. He also gives up a 45% hard contact rate to righties, so there’s no reason to avoid any righties for the sole reason of platoon. Bailey gives it up to everyone.

Potential Players to Stack

Mitch Haniger (FD $4500 DK $4600)
Edwin Encarnacion (FD $3600 DK $4300)
Domingo Santana (FD $4100 DK $4300)
Jay Bruce (FD $3500 DK $4200)

It's usually a good sign when DraftKings priced way up. That algorithm seems to know what it's doing. Homer Bailey is going to have a hard time with this offense and the entire order is stackable. This is just where the main source of power lies. Encarnacion has been basically platoon neutral for his career, with a .844 OPS in that split (.868 against lefties). Meanwhile, Jay Bruce is coming off a very down season in 2018 but he still posted a good walk rate against righties (13%) even when things were looking rough. He's started this season much better with five home runs already.

Haniger also fared well against righties last season with a mid-.800's OPS. And Carlos Santana is among the most patient hitters in the game. He had an 18% walk rate in that split last season and took more free passes than strikeouts.

Bailey and his 15% K rate will struggle with these bats that either miss completely or make hard contact. If you're going to look cheaper, Omar Narvaez and Ryon Healy have a ton of upside together. On FanDuel, this stack is too cheap and worth pairing with another.

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