DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 4/7/19

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Pitchers

Mike Clevinger FD 10800 DK 9900
Opponent - TOR (Marcus Stroman) Park - CLE
FD - 39.97 DK - 21.51

We’re just focusing on the main slate, so keep that in mind here at pitcher. On the all day slate, you add options like Blake Snell and Chris Sale to the mix. On the main slate, it’s between Max Scherzer and Mike Clevinger at the top. Clevinger is not as good of a pitcher as Scherzer, but he’s going 100+ pitches and sees a phenomenal match-up with the Blue Jays. Clevinger is still one of the best pitchers in baseball, though, sporting a . 286 combined wOBA allowed with a near 10 K/9. He faces off with an offense that has already proven how ugly it is and that’s not going to change all season. Justin Smoak and Grichuk are going to have some big games, but it’s a lineup that will maintain the 23% K rate and bottom five team wOBA. Clevinger is as safe as it gets and you can play him for cheaper than Scherzer.

Max Scherzer FD 11900 DK 11900
Opponent - NYM (Zack Wheeler) Park - NYM
FD - 47.71 DK - 27.26

The leader in terms of raw points, Max Scherzer is facing off with the New York Mets. He dominated them in his first start of the season, going 7.2 innings and striking out 12, allowing just 2 runs. The Mets have been playing well, but they held a 23% strikeout rate in '18 and we know Scherzer can K as many as anyone. The Mets will split righties and lefties, and only a couple of lefties are any good. They still K and I think the 12 strikeouts on opening day is repeatable. Clevinger is a bit cheaper and has similar upside, but Scherzer has guaranteed strikeout upside and could be lesser owned.

Brad Keller FD 7600 DK 7200
Opponent - DET (Tyson Ross) Park - DET
FD - 26.19 DK - 12.6

If you’re looking to save some salary at pitcher, I love Brad Keller. In the same price range, I think most will prefer German and Newcomb. Newcomb is having trouble throwing strikes right now and German is a pure GPP play. Brad Keller was a 2017 rule 5 draft player and has impressed ever since joining the club. He’s a true sinker ball pitcher, which we don’t see much of anymore. Think Dallas Keuchel from the right side. He won’t strike many out (7 K/9), but he’ll limit damage and can afford the walks ( 3 BB/9) with the double-play always looming. After a miserable 2017, the Detroit Tigers have started this season as the 3rd worst team in baseball with a .238 team wOBA. Keller may not be one of these youngsters with double-digit strikeout upside, but he’s consistent and has a match-up tailored for cash games. I prefer paying up in cash games, but couldn’t blame anyone for using Keller.

Team Cash Stacks

New York Yankees

Park - BAL
Opposing Pitcher - BAL (David Hess)
Vegas Implied Run Total - 5.21
We’re just focusing on the main slate, so keep that in mind here at pitcher. On the all day slate, you add options like Blake Snell and Chris Sale to the mix. On the main slate, it’s between Max Scherzer and Mike Clevinger at the top. Clevinger is not as good of a pitcher as Scherzer, but he’s going 100+ pitches and sees a phenomenal match-up with the Blue Jays. Clevinger is still one of the best pitchers in baseball, though, sporting a . 286 combined wOBA allowed with a near 10 K/9. He faces off with an offense that has already proven how ugly it is and that’s not going to change all season. Justin Smoak and Grichuk are going to have some big games, but it’s a lineup that will maintain the 23% K rate and bottom five team wOBA. Clevinger is as safe as it gets and you can play him for cheaper than Scherzer.

There are a ton of offenses to choose from on this main slate and none of which are the wrong way to go. There are only two teams outside of Coors Field today that hold an implied total over 5, the Yankees and Astros. Let’s focus on the Yanks first, who’ll be facing off against David Hess and the Orioles bullpen. Vegas thinks they will score 5.07 runs. Hess has actually looked pretty good to start the season, no-hitting the Jays through 6.1 and going 2 scoreless vs the Yankees. With that being said, he’s by no means a good pitcher. Hess gave up a combined .350 wOBA in 2017 and allowed 22 home runs in just 100 innings. Unless Hess has completely changed his game and arsenal, it’s fair to expect big things from the Yankees. The bullpen is trash and the starter has immensely struggled against both sides of the plate. He gives up a ton of hard contact and relies on swings outside of the zone for success. If the Yankees are on their game, They’ll make quick work of Hess.

Potential Players to Stack

Aaron Judge (FD $4600 DK $5600)

Judge smashed two homers last night and looked like his normal self. With Stanton out of the lineup, he's in a tier of his own. David Hess is terrible against righties and we know Judge is just as good, if not better, vs same handed pitching. If you can afford him, Judge is the top bat on the slate.

Luke Voit (FD $4800 DK $4800)
Gary Sanchez (FD $4100 DK $5200)
Gregory Bird (FD $3200 DK $4500)

All of these guys are C/1B, so you'll have to get this right if you stack the Yankees. Voit is the most expensive, but he's positioned behind Judge and has the best shot at a homer. He's great against righties (.386 wOBA) and is my favorite pick after Judge for a dinger. Gary Sanchez and Greg Bird are both phenomenal pivots and especially if you're going to be rostering the bottom of the Yankees lineup.

Brett Gardner (FD $3600 DK $4300)
Gleyber Torres (FD $4000 DK $5000)

Rounding out the Yankees are Gardner and Torres. They're both great hitters against righties (Torres .347, Gardner .361). Torres will be the hot pick after hitting two homers a couple nights ago and following it up with another good game last night. Gardner is just as solid of a play, hitting before Judge, giving him all of the opportunity in the world. He's going to get pitches to hit, and will be driven in when on base. He can also hit home runs in this ballpark without much issue. Torres is a bit more risky and Gardner is the safe option of the two.

Houston Astros

Park - HOU
Opposing Pitcher - OAK (Mike Fiers)
Vegas Implied Run Total - 5.2

The 'Stros come in as the other obvious stack on this slate. Facing off with Mike Fiers, they're projected to put up 5.2 runs, the second highest on the slate outside of Coors Field. Mike Fiers is an all-around below average pitcher and he struggles against both righties and lefties. In 2018, he posted a .332 combined wOBA, but it was backed up by an ugly 4.51 xFIP. He allowed a 39% hard contact rate and now moves from the spacious Oakland Coliseum to Minute Maid Park. The Astros lineup is lethal and there are a ton of ways we can attack.

Potential Players to Stack

Alex Bregman (FD $4300 DK $4600)
George Springer ($4200 DK $4300)
Jose Altuve (FD $3900 DK $4600)
Carlos Correa (FD $3600 $4400)

I could do the exact same thing with the Astros that I did with the Yankees. The entire order is in play and it just comes down to your personal roster construction. If you can spend up and have no salary restrictions, here are the top four. Alex Bregman rakes righties (.390 wOBA, 22 HR in '18) and is probably the Astros' best overall hitter at this point. Springer is the riskiest of the bunch with his all or nothing swing, but he also gets the most at-bats and has great hitters to drive him in, so it almost makes up for it. Altuve and Correa have dropped in price a bit on FD and are plug and plays for me. They are still the same exact hitters and a series or two of struggles is absolutely nothing to worry about, After these core four, Brantley, Gurriel, and Reddick are all elite value plays. They'll be scattered across my lineups and shouldn't be highly owned with so many ways to go on this slate.

Chicago White Sox

Park - CHW
Opposing Pitcher - SEA (Wade LeBlanc)
Vegas Implied Run Total - 4.63

On the surface, Wade LeBlanc didn't have too bad of a 2018. He put up a 3.72 ERA and held both righties and lefties to a .308 wOBA. However, all of his peripherals were trending downward and things should start to crash and burn this year. His xFIP was almost a full point higher at 4.47 and righties mashed almost three home runs per nine innings. Things are only getting worse at 34 years old and we already saw him crumble in his first start. I'm having a hard time finding just four White Sox to get excited about.

Potential Players to Stack

Jose Abreu (FD $4000 DK $4200)
Yoan Moncada (FD $4300 DK $4500)
Tim Anderson (FD $3400 DK $4100)
Welington Castillo (FD $2500 DK $3700)
Leury Garcia (FD $3500 DK $3900)
Eloy Jimenez (FD $2300 DK $4300)

There is a lot to unpack here. On the surface, Moncada is obvious. He just stinks vs lefties and is so expensive. In 2018, he sported a .262 wOBA against them and didn't hit the ball hard very much. With that said, if the Sox beat up LeBlanc, that's 6 or 7 innings of right-handed bullpen arms anyways. Moncada may be the key to this stack, whether you play him or not, since his high profile hot start this year has a lot of people looking at him. Jose Abreu is the must on both sites and I won't have a Sox team without him. On FanDuel, Eloy Jimenez is too cheap and a must on that site. Other than that, you can mix and match. Anderson and Garcia both prefer lefties, and are hitting better than ever before. Castillo is a career-long platoon man and always has a good shot at a homer for cheap. This White Sox lineup has a ton of upside and you shouldn't find anyone over 15% owned.

Kansas City Royals

Park - Comerica Park
Opposing Pitcher - DET (Tyson Ross)
Vegas Implied Run Total - 4.18

I think the Royals may be a bit off the board here, or at least I'm hoping so. Tyson Ross has been off and on his entire career, but he is now just absolutely pitiful against lefties. In 2018, he allowed a .368 wOBA and 9 home runs in 70 innings. Tyson Ross is also terrible at holding runners, allowing the ninth most steals in baseball since 2015 on a 75% success rate. This Royals team is going to lead the league in stolen bases and it's an easy way to rack up fantasy points.

Potential Players to Stack

Adalberto Mondesi (FD $4500 DK $4600)
Alex Gordon (FD $3800 DK $3500)
Ryan O'Hearn (FD $4100 DK $3700)
Billy Hamilton (FD $2300 DK $3900)

The 9-2-3-5 stack is a very weird one, but we're trying to take advantage of Ross and his weaknesses. His biggest weakness, holding runners, is going to be taken advantage of by Hamilton and Mondesi. If either get on base, they will be running. Ross isn't a very good pitcher and I don't think either will have much trouble getting on. At least not any more than usual in the case of a guy like Hamilton. Gordon and O'Hearn have a ton of power and I expect some ducks to be on the pond when they get up. O'Hearns posted a .400+ wOBA against righties in '18 and it doesn't look like it was much of a fluke. There are a ton of teams to stack on this slate, so the Royals shouldn't be too popular at all.

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