DraftKings MLB Picks and FanDuel MLB Picks for 4/3/19

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Early slate

Pitchers

Corey Kluber FD 10200 DK 10900
Opponent - CHW (Carlos Rodon) Park - CLE
FD - 41.78 DK - 22.9

So pitching on the early slate is actually pretty tough today. There are a lot of decent pitchers going, and the highest total on in the first 6 games today is a meager 8.5. That of course means that you have a lot of pretty solid pitchers going, so where should we ultimately land? Right now the stars seem to be well aligned with Mr. Kluber. Vegas likes Kluber as the most likely pitcher to get a win on the early slate, and thinks the White Sox will score the fewest runs of any team. While they've mixed up their lineup a bit this year, the White Sox also struck out at the very highest rate against right-handed pitching last year as well. While there is some concern that Kluber is slowly giving back his once elite K rate after dropping down to just over a strikeout per inning last year, that shouldn't matter much in such an elite match-up. Be prepared to see Kluber as cash game chalk, particularly on slates that only consider the 12:35 and 1pm games.

Charlie Morton FD 8500 DK 9400
Opponent - COL (German Marquez) Park - COL
FD - 37.43 DK - 20.24

German Marquez FD 9800 DK 9500
Opponent - TB (Charlie Morton) Park - TB
FD - 36.33 DK - 19.35

Vegas sees this game as essentially a pick'em with a 7 combined total. That means we should see precious few runs given up by these two excellent pitchers. I'm highlighting both of them here because both are really pretty interesting big tournament plays on FanDuel and pitcher two options on DraftKings. Morton is one of the guys I'm most intrigued by this season. He just landed a two year, 30 million dollar contract with the Rays after two Cinderella story years in Houston. As we've seen recently, Houston seems to have the magic touch when it comes to reinventing previously plateaued pitchers. But can Morton keep it up in a new environment at age 35? His first start looked pretty good, and grabbing the Rockies on the road is usually a good thing.

As for Marquez, his story is really the opposite. He pitches in one of the worst historical places to pitch ever, and still managed a 3.10 xFIP in his age 23 season. That simply screams "superstar" in the loudest possible way. While I may have some concerns about him continuing to repeat that performance with 15 starts in Coors a year, I'm not at all concerned about him being able to get guys out in Tampa Bay, which is one of the friendliest pitchers parks in the majors. I'd actually take him as a hair safer than Morton here in spite of being a slight money line underdog. Also considered: Kyle Gibson as a pitcher two on DraftKings.

Team Cash Stacks

Cleveland Indians

Park - CLE
Opposing Pitcher - CHW (Carlos Rodon)
Vegas Implied Run Total - 4.1
Seeing the Indians as a stackable team will come as a surprise to basically no one who actually followed baseball in 2018. They possessed a top 8 wOBA against southpaws last year, while striking out the very least amount. And then there's Rodon. He is actually somewhat of a popular sleeper pick this year based on his prospect pedigree, and the fact that last year's lost season was somewhat injury related. But man, he was really bad last year. His 5.40 xfIP would have been the second worst in the majors if he managed to pitch enough innings to qualify, which is of course really hard when you're pitching that badly. He had a K/9 barely above 6, and walked more than 4 guys per nine as well, which is a terrible recipe for success against such a patient team like the Indians. Rodon looked good in his first start, but on a slate where great match-ups are at a premium I'll just take the Indians here.

Potential Players to Stack

Jose Ramirez (FD $4300 DK $5300)
Jake Bauers (FD $2400 DK $4300)
Hanley Ramirez (FD $2600 DK $4200)
The Indians often present pretty interest stacking opportunities thanks to the relatively extreme platoon splits they possess. Ramirez, of course, is just flat our one of the very best hitters in the game, and taking him against a left handed pitcher is sort of a no brainer. I also think his brother from a different mother Hanley is a phenomenal play here. He could move up in the lineup against the lefty, and he was .190 OPS points better against lefties last season. His overall line isn't pretty thanks to his poor performance against righties, but if you figure he gets 3 plate appearances against Rodon here you're sitting pretty. As for Bauers, he's a lefty that's better against righties, but he's awfully cheap and will likely bat between these guys. I am not sure if it's a cash game play, but it is a way to somewhat profitably punt a position.

Minnesota Twins

Park - KC
Opposing Pitcher - KC (Homer Bailey)
Vegas Implied Run Total - 3.79
I'd like to turn our attention to the Minnesota Twins and their lovely match-up with Homer Bailey. In case you missed it, Bailey managed to stick around in the majors for almost 200 innings in the last two seasons while sporting a 6.4+ ERA in that time. That's quite a feat! Scouts and managers continue to dream on Bailey and his big fast ball, which still sits just shy of 94 MPH. The problem, though, lies with his subpar secondary offerings and his incredible home run rates. His 1.95 HR/9 last season is the kind that makes you scroll up to see if you're looking at the value in the right column, and it makes him a perfect target to stack against, particularly for big tournaments.

Potential Players to Stack

C.J. Cron (FD $3200 DK $4500)
Eddie Rosario (FD $2900 DK $4700)
Max Kepler (FD $2500 DK $4400)
The theme here is not transcendent upside, but instead excellent value. Max Kepler is dramatically under-priced against righties because he's so awful against lefties, but his near .800 career OPS against righties makes him more than tolerable at a near-minimum price batting near (or even at) the top of the order. Rosario has been a 25 and 10 guy over the last two seasons because of his ability to hit northpaws as well, with an over .800 OPS against them for his career. Cron is a platoon neutral slugger who is capable of getting a hold of one, as evidenced by his 30 homers last year. Is this stack going to win tournaments? Maybe not, but it can certainly help you in cash games.

Also considered for the early slate: Stacking the Reds against Freddy Peralta. I'm a bigger believer in Peralta than most simply because it's harder to teach pitchers how to get more Ks than it is to teach them to walk fewer batters, but I still don't think he's there yet, and as mentioned, this is a very competitive slate for pitchers.

Main slate

Pitchers

Ross Stripling FD 9300 DK 10200
Opponent - SF (Derek Holland) Park - LAD
FD - 35.25 DK - 19

Stripling has started the 2019 season in the same way that put him on the map in 2018: striking out a lot of batters while walking almost none. He didn't qualify for the league leaders last year thanks to various ailments and the Dodgers' cautious approach with their young pitching staff, but if he had, he would have ranked fifth in the majors in xFIP. He would have been the fifth pitcher in the majors to finish the season with an xFIP under 3, in fact. That's ace's ace, top tier pitching - and you're getting it at a fraction of the cost of the big names. Sure, Stripling is fairly unlikely to throw a complete game, but at these prices 6 innings and 7 Ks is a bargain. And did you see the match-up? The Giants were pitiful last year, ranking fourth worst in terms of wOBA against righties while striking out the 4th most times. This year they rate to be older and worse. This is a great play in all formats.

Jameson Taillon FD 8900 DK 7900
Opponent - STL (Miles Mikolas) Park - PIT
FD - 32.16 DK - 16.74

Vegas believes that this match-up is a mirror of the Morton/Marquez match-up, without the alliteration. Me? I'm not quite as impressed. Miles Mikolas has all the makings of a guy who could turn back into a pumpkin this season. It's all well and good to live dangerously in the strike zone when you're not getting punished for it (the way he was last year), but this year could look a lot different from him. So what's the have to do with Taillon? I just think the pick'em status of this one is kind of a joke. Taillon shaved a walk per 9 off his track record last season while maintaining nearly a strikeout per inning, and he's still just 27 years old. The Cardinals were basically a league average match-up for opposing righties last season, but Taillon is just cheap (especially on DraftKings), and I think there is great upside here.

Also considered: Gerrit Cole. He'll be chalk if it turns out people can afford him, as the upside is truly ridiculous and the match-up isn't terrible.

Team Cash Stacks

Houston Astros

Park - TEX
Opposing Pitcher - TEX (Mike Minor)
Vegas Implied Run Total - 5.44
Mike Minor has picked up just where he left off last season by being generally lousy in his first start of the season. He was bad in what have become pleasantly predictable ways for him, too, by giving up a lot of hard hit balls (including a homer) while striking hardly anyone out. The Astros had the highest wOBA of any team in the majors against left handed pitching last season, and Arlington is one of the friendliest places to hit in all of the major leagues. This is one of those easy stacks that you don't think too hard about - you just play as many guys here as you can afford.

Potential Players to Stack

Alex Bregman (FD $4400 DK $5400)
Jose Altuve (FD $4100 DK $5200)
Carlos Correa (FD $3200 DK $4800)
We made room for these three in cash games on Tuesday night as well, and if you're getting the opportunity to play them up the middle of the order on the better part of their platoon split, you generally want to do it. Bregman and Altuve are the stars, sure, but the 24 year old Correa has plenty he can offer against lefties as well. He was plagued by injuries last season, but he's still .030 OPS points better against southpaws for his career, and it's easy to forget that he was a $4,000 player before his slumps last year. If you think the BABIP comes back up (and it should) he'll return to those prices in short order.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Park - LAD
Opposing Pitcher - SF (Derek Holland)
Vegas Implied Run Total - 3.83
So Vegas isn't as high on the Dodgers as I am today, which could very well make them a big tournament stack instead of a cash game stack. Holland was improved last season, sure, but how sustainable were those gains in his age 31 season? He added two strikeouts per 9 to his resume while only slightly increasing his walk rate, and while he certainly had a lot going for him (a better home pitcher's park and a better pitching coach to be sure) I'm still not so convinced he isn't the generally terrible pitcher he was for his entire career leading up to that moment. I mean the guy had back to back 5+ xFIP seasons in 2016 and 2017, which is no small feat. The Dodgers were slightly better than average against lefties last season, but they also feature a couple of lefty mashers at reasonable prices as well.

Potential Players to Stack

Kike Hernandez (FD $3800 DK $4200)
David Freese (FD $2200 DK $3700)
Justin Turner (FD $4400 DK $4400)
A.J. Pollock (FD $3700 DK $4600)
The Dodgers are seriously bringing the platoon heat right now, with four players who were put on Earth to mash left handed pitching. Hernandez sports a career OPS .180 points higher against lefties. Turner topped a 1k OPS against southpaws last season. Freese's career OPS is more than .100 points better against lefties, which is basically the only reason he's made it this far in the majors. Pollock is only slightly better against lefties, but he's also too cheap. You can happily play any combination of these guys that wind up toward the top of the order.

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