FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Monday 4/1/19

 
Well, it’s April Fool’s Day and that can often feel like what we are dealing with on a nightly basis when it comes to the late season NBA minutes, rotations and injury news. It feels like we are playing roulette each evening with who is going to play, and how much. It means paying attention to news is as critical as ever and there is a quite a bit to wade through for Monday’s slate.  

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Point Guard

Goran Dragic FD - $6000 DK - $6500
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 33.01 DK - 34.84 The Heat will once again be without Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson in the back court, leaving (presumably) another heavy workload for Dragic on Monday. He’s played 37 and 38 minutes respectively over the last two games and put up a total of 31 shots. He struggled from the field against the Knicks on Saturday, but is only a game removed from a triple-double (23 points, 12 rebounds, 11 assists) against the Mavericks on Thursday. The matchup against Boston isn’t ideal, but with the Heat still very much fighting for a playoff spot, few other players have the kind of minutes safety as Dragic on this slate (which is saying a lot considering he’s on the Heat).

Jalen Brunson FD - $5500 DK - $5400
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 24.48 DK - 25.8
Trey Burke FD - $3600 DK - $4000
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 27.02 DK - 27.42
I’m assuming Luka Doncic sits out again as a precautionary measure on Monday and that should leave a bulk of the point guard minutes to Brunson and Burke. On Sunday, Burke was the fantasy darling playing 31 minutes and finishing with 25 points on 10-18 shooting and eight assists. The price didn’t have a chance to move overnight, leaving him as a crazy value once again. It’s always a little tough to trust bench minutes for cash games, but Burke’s opportunity feels safe enough considering the situation and salaries.

Meanwhile, Brunson was fine in his 30 minutes on Sunday, though a bit underwhelming considering his price tier. He still isn’t all that expensive and should continue to at least see low 30’s minutes with Luka off the court. If anything, I think we could see the minutes land in the mid-30’s on Monday. He sees a 7% usage bumps and 15% boost in assists with Doncic off the court this season, leaving him as a higher-floor play against the Sixers.

Obviously, continue to consider Damian Lillard (FD $10500 DK $10000) in the upper tier as long as C.J. McCollum is off the court.

Shooting Guard

Jimmy Butler FD - $8500 DK - $7900
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 46 DK - 45.03
With Joel Embiid off the court for this road trip, Butler remains one of the beneficiaries (from a fantasy perspective). He took 17 shots on Saturday against the Timberwolves and does see a 12% jump in usage with Embiid off the court this year. The rebounds tick up about 13% as well and he’s just a much (much) more viable fantasy option when the Sixers are playing shorthanded like this. They’ll be facing a compromised (and quasi-tanking) Mavericks’ squad but have shown an inability to pull away from teams this season, especially when Embiid is off the court. That being said, Philly doesn’t have all that much to play for at this point, basically locked into the three-seed in the East.

Dion Waiters FD - $5500 DK - $6000
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 27.67 DK - 29.24 Much like Dragic, there have been plenty of backcourt minutes for Waiters over the last couple of games with Richardson and Winslow out of the mix. Waiters played 37 against the Knicks on Saturday and put up 28 points and six assists. It was his best fantasy performance of the season (he also chucked in some steals and a block) and one should expect at least similar run on Monday. Dude has taken an average of 19 shots per game over the last three and that kind of chucker attitude likely persists into this game considering the amount of usage the Heat have off the court right now.

Keep an eye on the Bucks situation when it comes to Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton. There could potentially be some shooting guard value opening up depending on the status of these guys.

Small Forward

Ok, small forward is terrible on Monday, especially on FanDuel. Every other position (seemingly) has a ton of value coming in at nearly every price tier. Except for this one. I’ll run through some of the considerations you might want to take into mind as well as some of the injury situations that could open up some breathing room.

If Giannis sat again then a guy like Bonzie Colson (FD $3500 DK $3000) could be the punt play to run. Dude played a ton on Sunday against the Hawks and if both Giannis and Middleton sat again we could be looking at a chalk night for Colson.

DeMarre Carroll (FD $4400 DK $4600) would simply be a price play if nothing else opens up. The Nets are still in kind of fighting for their playoff lives and have played somewhat tighter rotations in the short term. Joe Harris (FD $5000 DK $4800) is interesting in this respect as well and the Nets could be without Kurucs on Monday.

If Kevin Love sat again then I would love Cedi Osman (FD $6300 DK $5900) against the Suns.

Power Forward

Jonah Bolden FD - $4500 DK - $4500
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 25.12 DK - 24.53 With Joel Embiid off the court, Bolden drew the start on Saturday and played 31 minutes. He was excellent, scoring 19 points and grabbing eight rebounds. If he’s going to be the *answer* at center (and not Boban) then I think we are definitely rostering him at these price points. Considering the makeup of the Sixers’ starting lineup, a guy like Bolden will rarely but a big usage guy, but that’s somewhat negligible if he can play minutes into the 30’s at close-to-punt prices. I suppose there’s some chance Philly switches up the starting lineup again, but considering Dallas doesn’t run all that big, we should see Bolden in that spot again on Monday.

Richaun Holmes FD - $6500 DK - $4500
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 29.27 DK - 27.48 DeAndre Ayton is going to sit this one out with a sprained ankle and that should open up a bunch of center minutes for Holmes. The latter sat out Saturday with a headache, but isn’t on the injury report for Monday. If we believe he grabs a majority of the big man minutes for the Suns, then this could be an easy cash game play. Holmes is a fantasy-points-per-minute beast with the only issue being the actual run. Per 30 minutes this season, he’s averaging 15 points, eight rebounds with some blocks thrown in as well. That kind of line is more than enough to hit value on DraftKings where he’d be an overwhelming chalk play as long as he’s confirmed in the starting lineup. I suppose it’s a little closer on FanDuel where he’s price much more aggressively.

Center

Enes Kanter FD - $6400 DK - $6600
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 33.75 DK - 36.06 After putting together and underwhelming line in his first start for the injured Jusuf Nurkic, Kanter came back on Friday and got the job done. He finished with 20 points and 15 rebounds in 34 minutes against the Pistons. I do think, in the right game script, these are the kind of expected minutes for Kanter and he makes for another strong cash game play against Karl-Anthony Towns and the Timberwolves on Monday. Kanter’s price hasn’t come close to correcting for his newfound opportunity with Nurkic off the court and the former has always been able to get the job done on a per minute basis when given the run.

Thon Maker FD - $3600 DK - $3800
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 22.6 DK - 22.19 Blake Griffin has already been ruled out of Monday’s game against the Pacers and Maker should get the start once again. In the last two games Griffin has missed, Maker has started and played 33 and 28 minutes respectively. He isn’t going to see anything close to Griffin’s usage (averaging 7 shots per game in those two) but the court time should make up for it from a fantasy perspective. He’s coming cheap enough to take the risk. Meanwhile, Andre Drummond (FD $10700 DK $9700) is, of course, in a great spot here with Griffin of the court. Dude’s played 38 or more minutes in three of the last five games and is averaging 20 points and 19 rebounds in the last two. He’s a force and the minutes’ floor should be plenty high with the Pistons playing without Griffin in the front court.

If he started again, Mitchell Robinson (FD $8000 DK $6300) would make for a great play on DraftKings.