DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 3/31/19

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Pitchers

J.A. Happ FD 9300 DK 10100
Opponent - BAL (Dylan Bundy) Park - NYY
FD - 41.5 DK - 22.35

Happ is not going to be the same pitcher he was last year for very much longer. He has struggled mightily in spring training, but the Yankees are expecting him to turn it around in the regular season. Vegas agrees. It has a lot to do with Dylan Bundy, but the Yankees are -355 favorites, giving you as close as it gets to a guaranteed Happ victory. He struck out over 9 batters per 9 innings against both sides of the plate in 2018 and only struggled with right-handed power. This Orioles lineups is up there with the Marlins and Giants as the worst in baseball and we'll be taking advantage of them all season long. They don't have much of a power pop and strike out over 23% of the time as a group. Happ is cheaper than both Carrasco and Corbin and has a much higher floor than both.

Patrick Corbin FD 9800 DK 10000
Opponent - NYM (Zack Wheeler) Park - WSH
FD - 36.4 DK - 19.76

This Mets lineup is going to underwhelm all season long, and I think we'll end up targeting them against lefties. Michael Conforto and Robinson Cano are their two best bats and both are much worse against lefties. They'll instead rely on Pete Alonso and Wilson Ramos, who are more than volatile bats. Patrick Corbin is a legitimate superstar when healthy and is probably the best number three in baseball. He struck out 11 batters per 9 innings in '18, while holding an elite 2.61 xFIP. The bottom of this order is high-upside and low-risk, with strikeouts aplenty and homers barren. If Corbin is on his game, he will go six or seven innings and could reach double-digit strikeouts. Corbin is my favorite tournament pitcher on the slate.

Jon Gray FD 7900 DK 9400
Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - MIA
FD - 36.01 DK - 19.08

Outside of a tough outing in his last game, Jon Gray had one of the best spring trainings in the league. With a 22:1 K:BB ratio, hes obviously hitting his spots and is fully healthy. He now gets to match-up against the worst lineup in baseball in Miami. And he's in Miami! Marlins Park is one of the best pitchers ballparks in baseball and the Marlins will have a hard time getting more than a run or two off of Gray. He struck out almost 10 batters per 9 innings and was serviceable against both sides of the plate. He's safe for his price and should be popular across the board. Pitching is weird on this slate and Gray can easily go six or seven innings with an easy win. If you think the Rockies get to Alcantara, Gray is a cheap cash game lock.

Michael Pineda FD 7700 DK 7400
Opponent - CLE (Carlos Carrasco) Park - MIN
FD - 32.88 DK - 17.32

Pineda is a guy I'll never play in cash games. It will just never happen. He's always at risk for a blow up and it can come at any time, no matter how good he's been up to that point. When it's the first start of the season and we have even less of a current track record, you'll definitely want to reserve him for tourneys. Fortunately, we have Gray for cash games in this pricing range. Pineda did strikeout 13 in 15 innings in the spring and said he feels better than ever, so there's that. You never know how much to take from ST results. I'd rather look at 2018, where Pineda struck out 22% of batters and wasn't weak against any one side of the plate. He struck out just 5% of his batters and had a much better hold on his fastball. This Indians lineup is not like it has been in previous years and Pineda will have every opportunity to have a solid outing.

Team Cash Stacks

New York Yankees Park - @NYY Opposing pitcher - Dylan Bundy Vegas implied run total - 6.31

Dylan Bundy has had one of the wildest pitching careers for a 26-year-old we've ever seen. Let's take a quick look at this timeline. In 2013, he was the best pitching prospect in baseball. He then went down with Tommy John, delaying everything 2 years. He struggled after coming back in 2015, but still climbed his way up the ranks and ended up in the majors in 2016. Ever since, he's disappointed. After a serviceable 2017 where he was average at best, he plummeted in '18. Against lefties, he's allowed a monstrous .399 wOBA and 5.50 xFIP. He also gave up 41 home runs in 170 innings to both sides of the plate, coming in over 2/HR per 9 innings. He now enters the most dangerous ballpark in baseball: the home of the Yankees. Like we saw yesterday, a team like this can go cold at any point. Yesterday will hopefully keep a few people off of this lineup, but the 6.31 implied run total they hold is far ahead of even the second-place Cubs (5.04). You are going very contrarian if you don't have at least two or three Yankees in your lineup. Bundy is more susceptible to the long ball against righties, so Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are the top two hitters on the slate. Neither have homered and three games in, I think it's time. Luke Voit and Gary Sanchez are both at the same position and you may be able to get Sanchez at rather low ownership and price. With Bundy being so terrible against lefties and having to pitch with the right field short porch, Brett Gardner and Greg Bird deserve attention as the two lone lefties. Andujar, Tulo, and Torres are all elite lineup stuffers that will have RBI opportunities and a high likelihood of getting driven in once on base. Once Dylan Bundy leaves the game, we're working with a bottom-5 MLB bullpen. The Yankees are going to have every opportunity to bounce back today and I'm not going to bet against them.

Potential Players to Stack

Aaron Judge FD 5100 DK 5400
Opponent - BAL (Dylan Bundy) Park - NYY
FD - 16.88 DK - 12.53
Giancarlo Stanton FD 4500 DK 5300
Opponent - BAL (Dylan Bundy) Park - NYY
FD - 16.44 DK - 12.26

The two top dogs. If you can afford both play, them. If you can afford one, play him. If you can't afford either, rebuild. There is always an argument to fading in baseball and especially two strikeout hitters on a slate with plenty of other options. With that said, I'm very uncomfortable without a ton of exposure to both of these guys. Bundy has been atrocious of late and the bullpen won't offer any relief.

Gary Sanchez FD 3200 DK 4500
Opponent - BAL (Dylan Bundy) Park - NYY
FD - 14.32 DK - 10.73
Luke Voit FD 4200 DK 4400
Opponent - BAL (Dylan Bundy) Park - NYY
FD - 12.22 DK - 9.26

On DraftKings, Gary Sanchez is the top catcher. I will have him in each and every one of my DK lineups. On FanDuel, you'll have to choose between these guys if stacking (or use utility). Raw point projection will tell you Luke Voit, but when you consider ownership and price, I think Sanchez takes it. He's $1000 cheaper and gives you a very similar home run expectation. The money will come in very handy on this slate with the big bats in the outfield and some others we're yet to touch on.

Brett Gardner FD 2900 DK 3900
Opponent - BAL (Dylan Bundy) Park - NYY
FD - 13.08 DK - 10.04
Greg Bird FD 2500 DK 4000
Opponent - BAL (Dylan Bundy) Park - NYY
FD - 0.15 DK - 0.11

The two expected lefties are both very much in play. Neither are too expensive and I don't think either will be overly-owned, either, with their positions plentiful. You can't go wrong with either of these guys and I'll make sure every Yankee stack of mine has at least one of these lefties. The rest of the order is obviously in play, with guys like Andujar, Tulo, and Torres. It's just a matter of who you prefer plugging in. They can all hit and will get their fair share of RBI and run scoring opportunities.

Toronto Blue Jays Park - @TOR Opposing pitcher - Matt Moore Vegas implied run total - 4.75

2018 was a year that Matt Moore was going to turn everything around. He polished his arsenal and was ready to be his old self. Not. He only pitched 100 innings and Moore had his worst season ever, sporting a combined .390 wOBA allowed with a brutal 1.7 HR/9. The Blue Jays run out a power happy, right-handed heavy lineup that likes to lift the ball. They're also very cheap and let you pay up elsewhere while possessing legitimate upside, outside of a few 1-off value plays. Drury, Grichuk, Hernandez, and Smoak are my four favorite. Drury, Grichuk, and Hernandez all prefer hitting against lefties and all have a lot of power. Grichuk is one of the top hitters on the slate and is going to hit the ball hard around the diamond. Smoak is actually quite terrible against lefties, but I don't think Matt Moore sees more than 4 or 5 innings, leaving Smoak against righties for half of the game. He can also still knock in a run or two from the right side. After those core 4, Lourdes Gurriel is a guy I love. He hits the ball extremely hard against lefties and is cheap across the industry. The bottom 4 (Pillar, Jansen, Tellez, Galvis) are all better against lefties and I really don't mind any of them as one-offs. They all possess a little bit of power and should come up to the plate with runners on base. I just can't justify them over any of the guys in the top of the order. Galvis may be my favorite as part of a 9-1-2-3 stack. He can steal bags and hit homers, so there's upside for very cheap.

Potential Players to Stack

Randal Grichuk FD 3100 DK 4300
Opponent - DET (Matt Moore) Park - TOR
FD - 11.81 DK - 8.92
Brandon Drury FD 2300 DK 3500
Opponent - DET (Matt Moore) Park - TOR
FD - 10.17 DK - 7.81
Teoscar Hernandez FD 3000 DK 4100
Opponent - DET (Matt Moore) Park - TOR
FD - 10.87 DK - 8.27

The three top righties in the order. They are going to give Matt Moore a tough time and the price on all of these guys are favorable on FanDuel. The Jays righties are a stack you can play with an expensive team and they have just as much upside. All three of these guys above have legitimate home run upside against a left-hander with HR and hard contact issues.

Justin Smoak FD 3400 DK 4100
Opponent - DET (Matt Moore) Park - TOR
FD - 11.44 DK - 8.56
Lourdes Gurriel FD 2600 DK 3700
Opponent - DET (Matt Moore) Park - TOR
FD - 9.67 DK - 7.53
Freddy Galvis FD 2200 DK 3700
Opponent - DET (Matt Moore) Park - TOR
FD - 7.06 DK - 5.48

You'll have to choose between one of these guys for your fourth spot. If you want to be sneaky, lap the bottom of the lineup and play Freddy Galvis in the nine hole. He won't be owned and has been known to have huge games. Smoak is the safe play of the bunch, and it's very hard to see the Blue Jays have a big game without the Smoak monster getting involved. He's going to get 4 or 5 at-bats and at least 3 of them should be vs righties. Lourdes Gurriel hits the ball hard against lefties and is way too cheap over on FD. I love the Blue Jays tonight with everything considered.
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The One-off Guys

Ryan O'Hearn FD 3500 DK 3900
Opponent - CHW (Lucas Giolito) Park - KC
FD - 9.67 DK - 7.31

I think Ryan O'Hearn is going to have a big year for the Royals and I would like to get on the bandwagon before things get rolling. He gets to face off with Lucas Giolito tonight, who was absolutely terrible against in 2018. He allowed a .361 wOBA to lefties and gave up 13 homers in 87 innings. As for O'hearn, he whooped righties to the tune of a .458 wOBA and smacked 10 homers in just 112 at-bats. Even in a pretty small sample size, a 48.2% hard contact rate is no joke. I think O'Hearn is the real deal and he's my favorite Royals bat of the night. This is another team you can stack.

Tommy Pham FD 3800 DK 4300
Opponent - HOU (Wade Miley) Park - TB
FD - 10.84 DK - 8.25

Tommy Pham is a guy you want to play against southpaws. Since the beginning of 2017, he's held a .425 wOBA against left-handers with 13 homers in under 250 plate appearances. Pham hit the ball hard 52.7% of the time against lefties and is now facing off with Wade Miley. Miley has found a way to survive at his age, but his velocity has dropped and we have to assume he will start dropping off one of these years. He outpitched his peripherals in 2017 and I think he struggles in this game, even against a weak offense. Pham is going to hit the ball hard and I doubt he ends up very highly owned.

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