Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) drives around Utah Jazz guard Raul Neto, left, in the first quarter during an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
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The final few weeks of the NBA season are upon us and it's a nightmare in terms of injury reports. Hopefully, we can clear some things up for you here and find some value in a relatively short slate. The guys we need to keep an eye on are Paul George and LeBron James. These two guys will determine what sort of value we have on this slate and a lot of our plays are based on their status.
What we're going to do is target games with high paces, as we plan on stacking the LAL-CHA and POR-ATL matchups. Both of these fixtures have the two-highest projected paces on this slate and both games have totals in the 230-range. Not to mention, these matchups have a ton of injuries, which simply opens up value for everyone else in these games.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 58.94 DK - 62.25
Lillard posted a dud in his most recent game but it's easy to see why when looking at the box score. He played just 28 minutes in that blowout victory over the Chicago Bulls and Terry Stotts obviously thought that was a good opportunity to rest their superstar. They needed to get him some rest too, as he's been carrying the load without C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic. In fact, Lillard is posting a 40 percent usage rate with those two off the floor while averaging 1.6 DK points per minute. Prior to that blowout on Wednesday, Lillard was averaging 53 DK points per game across 38 minutes of action in his previous nine games. That shows just how ball-dominant he's become and he should continue to do that in this superb matchup. Not only does Atlanta ranks dead-last in total defense and first in pace, they also allow the most fantasy points in the league to opposing point guards.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 34.81 DK - 37.34
Rondo has been struggling with his shot recently but he's still providing fantasy value. Since re-capturing the starting point guard role on February 27, Rondo is averaging 31.6 DK points per game across 33 minutes of action. This bump in production should be no surprise when looking at the roster, with Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram and Josh Hart all out for the year. That alone should keep Rondo's minutes and usage high, as he should be closer to $7,000. Not to mention, Charlotte ranks 22nd in defensive efficiency.
Also Consider:
Russell Westbrook would become one of the best plays on the board if Paul George sits, as Westbrook would likely be looking at 25 shots and a usage rate approaching 40 percent.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 31.95 DK - 31.95
With Charlotte battling for their playoff lives, Lamb should be asked to take on a much bigger load over the final few weeks. While an ankle injury kept him limited in the most recent win over San Antonio, Lamb was stellar prior to that. In fact, Lamb was averaging 32.3 DK points per game across his previous 14 outings, scoring at least 21 fantasy points in all 14 fixtures. That's all you can ask for from someone in this price range, as he should benefit from this spectacular matchup too. Not only does Los Angeles sit 24th in total defense, they also have a 27th OPRK against shooting guards according to DraftKings.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 28.32 DK - 28.98
Caldwell-Pope is another beneficiary to all of the injuries in Los Angeles and he should continue to see huge minutes down the stretch. Over his last nine games, Caldwell-Pope is averaging 28.2 DK points per game across 31 minutes of action. What's more encouraging is the fact that he's attempting 8.6 three-pointer per game in that span, which simply means he's firing at will. That's not the role you'd expect from a player in the $5,000-range and he should have success against a Hornets defense who allows the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season.
Also Consider:
Dennis Schroder would also benefit if George sits out, as he would likely enter the starting lineup in his absence.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 50.17 DK - 51.67
This is a tricky one because of James' status but as long as he's suiting up, King James is worth a shot. The reason for that is because they continue to give him big minutes. In fact, James has played at least 32 minutes in six-straight games and it's clear they have no intention of limiting his minutes when he does suit up. His fantasy production has been amazing too, with James providing at least 53 DK points in 14 of his last 16 games in total. Playing against Michael Jordan's team always lights up King James eyes too, as he dropped 61.5 DK points in his one game against the Hornets earlier this season.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 23.61 DK - 24.23
Do you smell that? I think it's safe to say that there's some bacon cookin'. In fact, Bacon has set a career-high in fantasy points in three-straight games and it's clear that the Hornets want to ride him to the finish line. Not only does he have at least 17 DK points in seven of his last eight games, he's also averaging 23 fantasy points per game in that span. The most recent three-game stretch is what's really promising though, with Bacon averaging 31 DK points per game in that span. That's monstrous production from a $4,500 player and he should be able to continue that success against a Lakers defense who sits fourth in pace and 24th in total defense.
Also Consider:
While he's been struggling. Gary Harris pops up highly in our projections because of his recent bump in minutes.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 34.24 DK - 35.7
Kuzma is yet another piece to our Lakers stack, as he's seeing the most shots on the team in the absence of Ingram and Ball. In fact, Kuzma is taking more than 16 shots per game since February 7, averaging 30.3 DK points per game in that span. Any player taking 16 shots while averaging 34 minutes per game is worth a shot in this price range, as there are numerous $8,000 players who aren't even seeing a role like that. As mentioned before, Charlotte is not a matchup we need to fear, with both these teams playing at a blistering pace.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 25.91 DK - 25.82
With Nurkic out for the year, Aminu should pick up more minutes and more rebounds in his absence. That was evident on Wednesday, with Aminu collecting 12 points and 11 rebounds in just 23 minutes of action. Those 23 minutes are the floor at this point, because of the aforementioned blowout nature of that game. Recording a double-double in that few of minutes shows that Aminu knows what he needs to do, as rebounds could come easily in a matchup like this. Not only does Atlanta plat at the fastest pace in the NBA, they also allow the second-most rebounds to opposing power forwards while owning a 29th OPRK against that position according to DraftKings. All these factors would make one think that Aminu is priced around $6,000 but he's quite the bargain in the $5,000-range.
Also Consider:
Marvin Williams remains a nice value in the $4,000-range, as he could play 30-35 minutes in a favorable matchup.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 42.03 DK - 40.91
McGee is the final piece of our Lakers stack, as he's simply playing the best basketball of his career. In fact, McGee is averaging 42.2 DK points per game across his last nine outings. It's pretty clear that Tyson Chandler is out of the rotation and that has opened up the door for McGee to approach 30 minutes of action. That's all McGee fans have wanted for years, especially when you consider the fact he's provided about 1.4 DK points per minute this season. The matchup is the icing on the cake, with Charlotte owning a 25th OPRK against centers this season, thanks to their tiny frontcourt.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 34.58 DK - 36.64
Kanter was the chalk on Wednesday and he essentially killed everyone who used him, including me. It's all about the process though and we need to go back to the well. The simple fact is, Kanter played just 22 minutes in that blowout victory. That's pretty much the floor at this point, as we have Kanter projected to reach closer to 30 minutes with Nurkic sidelined. Minutes are all we care about when it comes to Kanter, considering he's averaging about 1.3 DK points per minute this season. That puts him right at our 35-point projection if he plays the minutes that we expect and that alone makes him a nice value below $6,000. If the per-minute numbers aren't enough incentive to persuade you, a matchup against the worst defense in the NBA should be.
Also Consider:
Thomas Bryant just provided 18 points and 19 rebounds in the most recent game and could see extended minutes against a stout Utah frontline.
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