DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks - 3/28 Opening Day

Oh man, I can't believe baseball is back already. It feels like only yesterday we were watching the Red Sox win the World Series, but here we are at the start of another season.

Opening Day on FanDuel and DraftKings features a bevy of aces, some offenses in great spots and a whole lot more in between. Let's take a look at some of the cash game pitchers and team stacks to get you started on what should be a great season of baseball.

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Early

Masahiro Tanaka FD 9400 DK 9300
Opponent - BAL (Alex Cobb) Park - BAL
FD - 39.4 DK - 21.49
On an Opening Day full of aces, Tanaka comes in with easily the best win odds of the day, -317 at home against the Orioles. It’s easy to see why. The Orioles finished 2018 with a 47-115 (.290) record good for many an LOL, and did really nothing in the off season to improve. Hell, they might be worse with a whole season without Manny Machado and Adam Jones which would really be something. Which leaves us with Tanaka who comes off another season of excellent peripherals. He had a 4.6:1 K:BB ration and a 3.42 xFIP in 27 starts. Yankee Stadium isn’t a great place to pitch, but take one look at that Orioles’ projected batting order and wonder who gives him even a remotely hard time.

Max Scherzer FD 11700 DK 11100
Opponent - NYM (Jacob deGrom) Park - NYM
FD - 44.14 DK - 25.06
Scherzer has the unenviable task of having Jacob deGrom coming out of the opposing dugout, but still will stare down a Mets’ order that doesn’t inspire much fear. This game has a 7 over/under with the Nationals -140 home favorites. The Mets added Robinson Cano in the offseason and should be marginally better on offense if they can get full and quality seasons out of Nimmo/ McNeil/ Conforto. But this is still an exploitable lineup and Scherzer, in his age 34 year, is coming off arguably his best season yet. He struck out 12.24 batters per nine with the 2.08 BB/9 rate being the second-best of his career. His 3.06 xFIP trailed his 2.53 ERA but that’s splitting hairs. On a day with softer pricing on the offensive side of the diamond, rolling Scherzer in cash games doesn’t take much of a stretch.


Listen to "DFS MLB Podcast for FanDuel and DratKings - Opening Day 3/28/19" on Spreaker.

Afternoon

Justin Verlander FD 11400 DK 11000
Opponent - TB (Blake Snell) Park - TB
FD - 42.58 DK - 24
Like Scherzer, Verlander doesn’t get done any favors having to face off against Blake Snell here on Opening Day. But almost everything else is working it the righty’s favor. This game has the lowest over/under of the day (6.5, you’ll rarely see a number this low) thanks in part to the two starters, but also because Tropicana Field depresses power about the most in the majors. Verlander was borderline unreal last season with a career-best 7.6:1 K:BB ratio, 3.03 xFIP while striking out more than 12 batters per nine. It was made even crazier considering this was his 15th major league season.

Jose Berrios FD 8900 DK 9000
Opponent - CLE (Corey Kluber) Park - CLE
FD - 34.28 DK - 18.31
I know he’s an underdog to the Indians at the open (which usually isn’t where we want to be for cash) but I do think there’s a lot to like about Berrios here. The Indians are going to open the season without Francisco Lindor and could be without Jose Ramirez as well. Berries put together a solid third season in the majors, striking out 9.5 batters per nine, lowering his walk rate and sporting a 3.89 xFIP. Target Field was power neutral in 2018 and the colder weather to start the year should help depress the power further. If Ramirez is out, I do think this line swings close to a pick’em and in that case we’d be getting similar numbers to Kluber on the cheaper side of the matchup.

Team Cash Stacks

Early

New York Yankees

Park - NYY
Opposing Pitcher - BAL (Andrew Cashner)
Vegas Implied Run Total - 5.85

Potential Players to Stack

Brett Gardner (FD $2700 DK $3600)
Gary Sanchez (FD $3300 DK $4300)
Giancarlo Stanton (FD $4300 DK $5100)- GPP
Aaron Judge (FD $4600 DK $5500)- GPP

It might seem somewhat disingenuous to lead off an Opening Day cash stack recommendation with the Yankees, but then you see they are playing at home and the Orioles deemed Andrew Cashner as their very best option to start the season. Cashner’s been complete and utter garbage for the better part of the last two seasons. In 2018 he K’d less than six batters per nine, walked close to four and rocked a 5.19 xFIP. As far as major league pitchers go, and especially among those taking the mound on the first day of the season, dude is terrible.

I’m leading off with Gardner mostly because he’s, well, leading off. With Aaron Hicks hitting the DL, Gardner should take over at the top of the lineup. At these prices and hitting in front of Stanton/Judge/Sanchez has a ton of upside. He had a sub-.700 OPS in 2018 but still managed a 10% walk rate and 16 stolen bases. Dude has fantasy viability and is coming cheap enough for the opportunity that I think we see him as a popular play in cash games.

Sanchez was a disappointment in 2018, but man you have to think that with moderate regression on the .197 BABIP and a little more health we could see him return to something like his 2017 season. He hit 33 home runs that year with an OPS that pushed toward .900. Last year he still had a borderline elite 12.3% walk rate and 18 home runs in less than 400 plate appearances. He’s coming too cheap on both sites.

If Luke Voit hits in the middle of the lineup as a lefty bat to break up the righties then he’d instantly jump up this list.

And I mentioned Stanton and Judge as GPP plays mostly because of price. If you are rostering the big arms on this slate then it will be tough to pay all the way up for premium bats as well. But of course, they have as much upside as anyone going on Thursday facing a low-K pitcher.

Toronto Blue Jays

Park - TOR
Opposing Pitcher - DET (Jordan Zimmermann)
Vegas Implied Run Total - 4.68

Potential Players to Stack

Billy McKinney (FD $2500 DK $3200)
Lourdes Gurriel (FD $3000 DK $3700)
Justin Smoak (FD $3200 DK $3600)
Kendrys Morales (FD $2800 DK $3800)

The Blue Jays don’t have the highest run expectation on Opening Day, but they are coming cheap across the board at the top of the lineup against one of the weaker arms going.

Jordan Zimmermann wasn’t a train wreck last season, but struck out less than 7.5 batters per nine, allowed a fair amount of contact and finished with a mid-4’s xFIP. Assuming the Rogers Centre keeps the roof closed for this game because of the late spring cold and we have one of the better power parks on the slate.


McKinney should occupy the leadoff slot to start the year. In limited 2018 time, he was much (much) better against righty pitching, finishing with an .829 OPS in around 100 plate appearances. He strikes out a lot, but getting a leadoff guy at these near-punt prices (on FD) is almost worth it on its own.

And then there’s Gurriel who also strikes out a bunch (22%), never took a walk (3%) and yet still finished with a mid .700’s OPS in his rookie season thanks to 11 home runs. While I don’t typically like rostering this kind of batter profile in cash, the fact that Zimmermann isn’t a huge K guy mitigates some of the risk around McKinney and Gurriel’s swings and misses.

Smoak and Morales are easier to stomach (and more expensive) thanks to much more patient approaches. The latter isn’t a favorite to return to his (seemingly) outlier power season in 2017 (38 home runs) but is still a dude who walks 14% of the time and was better against righty pitching last season. He finished with an .867 OPS in that split with a .370 wOBA. Morales was also significantly better in that split last season, finishing with 13% walk rate and .860 OPS. Update: Morales has been taded to the Oakland A's.

Afternoon

Chicago Cubs

Park - TEX
Opposing Pitcher - TEX (Mike Minor)
Vegas Implied Run Total - 4.98

Potential Players to Stack

Kris Bryant (FD $3800 DK $5400)
Javier Baez (FD $3900 DK $4800)
Ben Zobrist (FD $2900 DK $3800)

The Cubs face off against one of the worst pitchers on the slate in the park that yielded the most runs and second most home runs in the league in 2018. Globe Life Park is like Coors South and that doesn’t figure to change this season. Minor doesn’t generate many ground balls in a park that can really punish you if the ball gets up in the air. His 4.53 xFIP was worse than the 4.13 ERA and he strikes out around 7.6 batters per nine.

Bryant struggled through an injury-plagued 2018 season, but most of his troubles came against righty pitching. He still crushed lefties to the tune of a 1.186 OPS and 194 wRC+ in about 100 plate appearances in that split. Coming in healthy this season, I’m expecting a bounce back season and this is a great place to start.

I’m not as bullish as some on Javier Baez repeating his 2018 campaign mostly because I think the home runs were something of an outlier after spiking a career high HR/FB ratio. But that’s not dissuading me from rostering him in this matchup. He smashed lefty pitching to a .933 OPS and .384 wOBA last season.

And finally, if Zobrist is hitting leadoff against lefties then he rates as a cheap cash filler option because of the plate appearance expectation. He’s very tough to strikeout (9.6% against lefties last season) and was above average in this split. At times Albert Almora hit in the top spot against lefties, so let’s keep an eye out for that Cubs’ batting order.

Additional Afternoon Value Plays
The Leadoff Guys
Joc Pederson FD 2600 DK 3800
Opponent - ARI (Zack Greinke) Park - ARI
FD - 10.64 DK - 7.97

Jesse Winker FD 2700 DK 3300
Opponent - PIT (Jameson Taillon) Park - PIT
FD - 10.96 DK - 8.33
Neither of these guys get great matchups against Greinke and Taillon respectively, but both should occupy the leadoff slots for their respective teams and are coming very cheap on both sites. As we’ve talked about before, plate appearance expectation is often the name of the game in DFS and that’s the key for Pederson and Winker at their price points. Also consider Yasiel Puig

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