FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Friday 3/25/19

 
Tuesday in the Association brings us a four-game slate with some of the slower and more defensively-sound teams around. That can always make things tricky from a DFS perspective because you’ll end up having to run guys in less than ideal matchups. But we’ve got you covered wading through some of the cash game plays for Monday’s FanDuel and DraftKings slates.  

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Point Guard

Damian Lillard FD - $10600 DK - $9900
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 51.23 DK - 53
Since C.J. McCollum went down three games ago, the Trailblazers have needed Damian Lillard to step up (even more than usual). Dude’s responded. He’s averaged 12 assists per game (up from 6.7 on the season) and poured in scoring totals of 30, 33 and 28 on lights out shooting from beyond the arc (16-31, 52%). We can’t expect that kind of fire from three, but the usage should remain considering the Blazers are without the other half of their backcourt duo.

Ricky Rubio FD - $6500 DK - $5400
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 27.65 DK - 28.11
This is a tough slate with a bunch of slow/ defensively sound squads to try and roster guys against. The Suns aren’t one of those teams. I would love to really trust Rubio as a solid cash game play but the minutes have trended awfully low in some of the recent Jazz games. Some of that is because blowout issues, but the plan in close ones does appear to play Rubio 27-28 minutes. That’s not a ton, but against the Suns he can for sure pile in enough of a fantasy line to get the job done. Heck, even in 26 minutes per game over the last seven games he’s averaging 13 points, six assists, four rebounds and two steals per. Get him close to 30 in a close one and he should pay value.

Consider Seth Curry (FD 4100 DK 3800) if you think he plays big minutes off the bench again.

 

Shooting Guard

D'Angelo Russell FD - $9100 DK - $8600
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 42.47 DK - 44.6
Russell has gone into full takeover mode over the last week or so. He’s averaging just crazy numbers over the last three games with 32 points and 12 assists. Dude has been one of the most variable guards around over the course of the season mostly because Kenny Atkinson and company didn’t always trust to play him during crunch time. But that concern has somewhat subsided considering just how much the team is relying on his scoring right now. The price is up, but arguably not enough if this opportunity is here to stay. I suspect he’s quite a chalky play on both sites for Tuesday’s shorter slate.

Dennis Schroder FD - $5800 DK - $5300
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 27.71 DK - 28.91
Even with the Thunder fully healthy, Schroder is playing big minutes because he’s the crunch-time shooting guard even though he starts the game as the sixth man. And he’s found ways to get scoring into the box score even while sharing the court more with either Russell Westbrook or Paul George (or both). He’s putting in more than 16 points per game over the last month. And over the last four games he’s taking a lot of three-pointers, averaging 6.5 attempts per game and knocking them down at at a 39% clip. His career numbers don’t suggest that efficiency will stick, but the attempts are encouraging.

 

Small Forward

Paul George FD - $10400 DK - $9600
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 52.24 DK - 53.52
After returning from the somewhat mysterious shoulder injury, George really struggled in his first few days game. But any concerns about the shooting woes have been somewhat alleviated in the short term. He’s been averaging about 11 three-point attempts per game over the last five and knocked them down at a 41% rate. That’s been part of the reason he’s averaged 29 points per game in the stretch. The minutes’ floor has also helped him put together huge fantasy performances and the Thunder will run him close to 40 minutes in close games. This isn’t an ideal matchup against Memphis who still runs an ultra-slow pace. But the slate isn’t all that roast and PG’s price won’t kill you, especially on DraftKings.

Mikal Bridges FD - $5100 DK - $5100
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 23.15 DK - 22.3
Bad teams are always tough to get a handle on down the home stretch of the season because the minutes can get all over the place in the effort to tank. But the Suns have actually played some rather tight rotations, and run some of the starters big time minutes. Bridges is one of those guys. He’s played 34 minutes in each of the last five games, cresting up to 40 twice and averaging 12 points, four rebounds, four assists and more than a steal per game. It’s tough to get bullish on the matchup against the Jazz, but that’s the theme of this slate all around.

In that respect, consider Joe Ingles (FD 6100 DK 6000) going the other way. But he, like his Jazz teammates, is priced up because of the the best matchup on the slate against the Suns.

 

Power Forward

Richaun Holmes FD - $4400 DK - $3900
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 23.99 DK - 22.4

Dragan Bender FD - $3900 DK - $3500
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 21.23 DK - 21.28
There isn’t a great amount of fanfare in these two power forward picks, but such is the case with the position (especially on FanDuel) where the pickings are ultra thin. Bender has been in the starting lineup over the short term which theoretically would have us bullish on the guy. But the game logs are an atrocity and more minutes doesn’t always mean more fantasy viability from the guy. It’s hard to look at the stat sheet and make a compelling case for Bender besides the price being in the basement, though I suppose you could say he’s running bad from three.

And then there’s Holmes who’s played 20 or more minute in each of the last two. He doesn’t need a ton of court time to return value on these prices. In fact, per 20 minutes this season he’s averaging 10 points, six rebounds and 1.4 steals. That line would push up towards respectable at his FanDuel and DraftKings’ prices. Again, we are in something of a bind with the position so plugging your nose and rolling one (or maybe even both on FD) could make some sense. And it should be mentioned that both of these guys look considerably better if Josh Jackson remains out.

After these two guys, the list starts looking even worse (and the guys above don’t look all that great either. The most expensive PF on FanDuel is Aaron Gordon (FD 7700 DK 7000) against the Sixers. In terms of staying on the court big minutes, he matches up *well* here assuming the Magic can keep the game close. Jerami Grant (FD 5600 DK 5300) might be the *safest* middle tier play out there. He’s been playing a lot of late and actually getting up double-digit shot attempts over the short term. He’s had 11 or more attempts in six of the last seven games. It’s just such a slow matchup against the Grizzlies.

   

Center

Jonas Valanciunas FD - $8100 DK - $7100
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 45.37 DK - 46.87
After going nuts in 41 minutes on Friday night of an overtime loss to the Magic, finishing with 23 points, 24 rebounds and four blocks, Valanciunas *dialed it back* on Saturday with *just* 20 point and 14 rebounds in 26 minutes on Saturday. The dude has been a per minute beast most of his career, and is not getting all of the minutes. That should be the case again on Monday with Joakim Noah out again. Jonas has averaged 20 points and 10 rebounds per game over the last month in just 28 minutes per. He should crest toward 32-33 in this matchup against the Thunder as long as the game stays relatively close.

Jusuf Nurkic FD - $8400 DK - $6900
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 42.39 DK - 43.12
Opposing centers continue to dismantle the Nets front court as they’ve been blitzed by the position all season long. They are allowing 13% more scoring and 12% more rebounding than league average to the position and are only a game removed from allowing Javale Freaking McGee to drop 33 points and 20 rebounds on them during Friday’s game. No Nurkic will have his chance to do work on the interior. Nurkic has double-doubled in eight of the last ten games, and is averaging 16 points and 12 rebounds in that stretch. Brooklyn doesn’t have anyone who can really play him off the court so I’m somewhat confident in the minutes for the Blazer big man.

 

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