FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA picks for 3/6/19

We've got a big NBA slate coming down the pike with some interesting sub-plots. Will Lebron and the Lakers stay in *playoff mode*? Will the Pelicans give us Anthony Davis news before lock? Has Boston turned it around after the blowout against the Warriors on Tuesday? There's a lot to dissect along with some FanDuel and DraftKings' plays.

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Point guard

Ben Simmons FD - $9900 DK - $8900
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 54.17 DK - 55.52

Simmons has been fantastic without Joel Embiid (knee) in the lineup, as he's seen a huge increase in his usage. In fact, Simmons is averaging more than 15 shots per game since Embiid went down while leading the Sixers in usage rate. It's led to some of his best fantasy numbers of the year too, with Simmons scoring at least 52 DK points in five of his last six games while averaging 48 fantasy points per game in that span. That recent hot stretch becomes even more enticing when you consider the fact that Simmons faces a Chicago defense who owns a 29th OPRK against point guards according to DraftKings. That was clear when Simmons dropped 55 fantasy points in his one game against the Bulls earlier this season.

Kemba Walker FD - $9300 DK - $8300
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 45.66 DK - 47.24

Walker has recaptured his early-season form, as he's in full takeover mode right now with Charlotte battling for their playoff lives. In fact, Walker has at least 35 DK points in 11 of his last 12 games while reaching at least 48 fantasy points eight times in that stretch. That's easy to understand why when you consider the fact that Walker is playing 37.3 minutes per game in that span while leading the team with a 32 percent usage rate and 23.2 shots per game. That's a monstrous role, as he should be a five-figure player on both sites with that sort of usage in his favor. Not to mention, Walker is averaging 48 DK points per game in two outings against the Heat this season.

Also consider:

Rajon Rondo is a good option on DraftKings at $6,000, as he should continue to start after dropping an impressive triple-double on Monday.

Shooting Guard

Jimmy Butler FD - $8400 DK - $7300
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 43.98 DK - 42.88

Butler has been much better without Embiid off the floor too, as he's become a focal part of the offense. In fact, Butler is posting a 25.4 percent usage rate with Embiid sidelined while averaging 1.2 DK points per minute. That has led to Butler scoring at least 35 DK points in six of his seven games heading into Tuesday. What's most encouraging about Butler here is the matchup though, as he faces a Bulls defense who ranks dead-last in defensive efficiency. Not to mention, it is his former team and the revenge game narrative definitely works for a hot-head like Butler. While $8,400 on FanDuel isn't the best value, $7,300 on DraftKings is hard to fade.

Josh Hart FD - $4400 DK - $3300
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 24.55 DK - 24.12

Hart is a tough sell because he was barely in the rotation just last week but the last two games and injury circumstances make him an intriguing option here. Not only is Hart playing 28 minutes per game in his last two fixtures, he's also averaging 21 DK points per game in that span. That sounds like nothing special but that's approaching 7X value at this $3,300 price tag on DraftKings. The fact that Kyle Kuzma (ankle) and Brandon Ingram (shoulder) may miss this game only adds to Hart's intrigue, as that's 29.4 shots and 65 minutes potentially out of the lineup.

Also consider:

If Kuzma and Ingram end up sitting, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a solid bet for 25-plus minutes too. That's worth a shot with him being priced at $3,500 or cheaper on both sites.

 

Small Forward

LeBron James FD - $12700 DK - $11300
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 60.79 DK - 62.28

While the Lakers haven't been winning games recently, LeBron continues to post gaudy fantasy numbers. In fact, James is averaging 58.4 DraftKings points per game across his last 10 outings, as he's right around a triple-double average. James is averaging 39 minutes and 20 shot attempts per game in that span too while leading the team with a 30 percent usage rate. That could rise even more here with Ingram and Kuzma potentially out, as LeBron posts a 37 percent usage rate with those two off the floor. While the last matchup against Denver was a 32-point blowout, James dropped 68.3 DK points in his first meeting with Denver earlier this season.

J.J. Redick FD - $5700 DK - $4900
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 29.63 DK - 31.59

Redick just provided 26 points and five rebounds in Tuesday's win, as he's yet another player we want to use without Embiid. So, let's dig a little deeper into why we want to use all these Sixers. The main reason is all the usage that Embiid swallows up, with Embiid averaging 33 minutes and 19 shot attempts a game while leading the team with a 32 percent usage rate. That's one of the highest usages in the NBA, as it opens up the door for all of these guys to succeed. The form of Redick has lowered his price to this tasty number, as he was struggling with his shot prior to Tuesday's blow-up. All the numbers indicate that Tuesday's gem could be the start of a big run, as Redick is still averaging 13 shots and 32 minutes a game across his last 19 outings. If he plays those 32 minutes and takes at least 13 shots here against this terrible Chicago defense, he should easily provide 5X value in the $5,000-range.

Also consider:

Will Barton pops up high on our projection system, as he's averaging 32 DK points per game across his last four outings and gets to face a lackluster Lakers defense.

 

Power Forward

Dwight Powell FD - $6800 DK - $5900
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 37.55 DK - 37.1

Powell has been superb since Dallas cleared their roster at the trade deadline, as he's started four-straight games. He was playing just as well when coming off the bench too, as he has at least 27 fantasy points in six straight outings while averaging 33.4 DK points per game in that span. It's all about minutes with Powell, as he's played at least 32 minutes in all four of these starts, which happens to be his four highest minute totals of the season. That sort of role looks even more promising here, with Powell facing a Washington defense who sits 26th in defensive efficiency, 29th in points allowed and eighth in total pace.

Amir Johnson FD - $3500 DK - $3100
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 27.01 DK - 27.17

Johnson is the final piece to our Philly stack, as he's easily the best cheap option of the bunch. In Tuesday's win, Johnson started at center and provided just shy of 30 fantasy points. That's impossible production to match from a player in this price range, as that's close to 10X value. That's simply impossible to fade, as he should get yet another start here with Embiid and Jonah Bolden expected to miss this game. The matchup may be the best part about playing Johnson though, as he faces a Chicago defense who allows the most fantasy points in the league to opposing centers.

Also consider:

Larry Nance Jr. should start for Ante Zizic, which makes him an intriguing option against a Brooklyn defense who allows the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing centers.

 

Center

Al Horford FD - $7100 DK - $6400
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 37.85 DK - 37.11

Horford continues to be undervalued on these DFS sites, as he's been one of the best centers in the league since the all-star break. Over his last 19 games, Horford has scored at least 27 DK points in 16 of those outings while averaging 37 fantasy points per game in that span. That consistency is hard to match, especially from a guy who's sitting in the $6,500-7,000 range. The matchup against Sacramento is hard to overlook too, as they rank 27th in total defense while playing at the fastest pace in the NBA. Not to mention, the Kings own a 25th OPRK against centers this season according to DraftKings.

Alex Len FD - $4100 DK - $4500
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 27.9 DK - 27.91

Len is a tough sell because of his inconsistency but he remains too cheap on these sites. His upside is really hard to overlook, as he has at least 46 DK points in two of his last three games. That directly correlates with John Collins (sick) being out, as Len is hard to fade if Collins does sit. We also need to keep an eye on Dewayne Dedmon's status too, as Dedmon is doubtful for this game due to a knee injury. As long as either Collins or Dedmon sits, Len is worth a shot. If they're both out, Len is the value play of the day. San Antonio is a matchup worth exploiting too, as they currently rank 23rd in defensive efficiency.

Also consider:

Nikola Jokic is a fantastic high-end option against the Lakers, as he should flirt with a triple-double against their weak defense.

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