FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Tuesday 3/5/19

Well it looks like the Lakers are going to be out of the playoffs, the Celtics are stumbling, the Bucks lose to Phoenix and that's just a few things over the last couple of days. What a time to be alive in the NBA! Now we get a Tuesday of six games and plenty of tough matchups.

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Point Guard

Ben Simmons FD - $9900 DK - $8400
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 51.61 DK - 53.13
The Sixers are coming off a tough loss to the Warriors on Sunday, a game they could have (probably should have) won at home. They’ll be without Joel Embiid for the fifth-straight game (though he does seem close to returning) and will again rely heavily on Simmons to play major minutes. In Embiid’s absence, Simmons is averaging 38 minutes per game and a 20 point, 11 rebound, eight assist average along with 1.4 steals. The extended run is worth the price of admission on these prices and he gets a much easier matchup against the Magic who have big-time matchup issues with Simmons’ versatility. The price is on the climb of course, but I’m still happy to roster him in cash games without Embiid.

Stephen Curry FD - $9400 DK - $9000
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 48.5 DK - 51.73
Even with Klay Thompson’s status up in the air, I think I’d be fine playing Curry one way or the other against the Celtics. This is a tougher slate of games with a lot of good defenses and the value could be a little harder to come by especially if most of these teams come in fully healthy (except for the Sixers). Steph has really struggled shooting over the last week or so, going a combined 18-60 (30%) from three over his last four games. That’s pretty much the worst run of shooting for the season. It’s kept his price in a manageable spot on both sites and I think we could see another run of solid minutes in what should be a closer game. Not to invoke the gambler’s fallacy, but it does sure seem like Steph is *due*.

If Paul George is out again, then Russell Westbrook (FD $11400 DK $11300) would, for sure, be in play again. That being said, there are ways to take the savings (see above) so it wouldn’t be a must to play Russ.

Shooting Guard

Evan Fournier FD - $5500 DK - $5400
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 26.68 DK - 27.79
Terrence Ross FD - $5000 DK - $4700
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 24.55 DK - 25.35
Fournier’s played 35 or more minutes in three of the last four games, and put up an average of 13 shots per game over the last five. He’s struggling from the field at only 38% though the three-point shooting (33%) is right in line with his season averages. I don’t mind in him in this spot against a wing-heavy Philly team and he’s versatile enough on defense to be able to stay on the court for longer stretches again. With the Magic in the midst of the playoff hunt (despite being five games under .500), expect to see even more concentration around the core rotation minutes.

Ross fits in there as well even as the sixth man. He’s coming off a horrific performance on Sunday against the Cavaliers that saw him shoot just 1-12 from the field (0-6) from three and finish with just two points. That is going to happen with a guy like Ross who’s fantasy profile is heavily concentrated around the scoring. He’s a volume shooter even in bench minutes, but if the shot isn’t falling you can be in trouble. He’s probably closer to a GPP play at these prices, but the SG position is very weak on this slate.

Dennis Schroder FD - $5600 DK - $5500
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 30.84 DK - 32.24
Things would get a little brighter at the position if Paul George sat out again. That would likely mean Schroder sticking in the starting lineup for the Thunder. That was the case on Sunday against the Timberwolves. Schroder played 41 minutes, led the team in shots with 22 and finished 17 points and 12 rebounds. He’d be the heavy chalk again if George sits. I only have him lower on the list because of the uncertainty around the OKC injury report and the mystery about the severity of PG’s shoulder issue. Here’s the hoping we have this news prior to main slate lineup lock, but that’s not a guarantee with the way the Thunder have dealt with this kind of reporting.

Small Forward

Kevin Durant FD - $9700 DK - $9100
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 47.24 DK - 48.51
Much like with Curry, Durant is somewhat dependent on whether or not Klay Thompson plays on Tuesday against the Celtics. There's more Warriors' usage to go around the more shooters are off the court, but considering how weak small forward is (especially on FanDuel) I think we might need to roll KD regardless. It's not the best matchup in the world against the Celtics, but such is the nature of this slate where (at least at the time of this post) value is somewhat hard to come by. The Warriors aren't necessarily on shaky ground, but they are only 3-3 in their last six and the starters have been running higher-than-average minutes. This game rates to stay close and I do like the sub $10K prices we are getting on Durant.

J.J. Redick FD - $5700 DK - $4800
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 26.73 DK - 28.67
Redick has had a rough go of it in the last four games without Embiid. When the Sixers’ big guy is on the court, JJ sees much better looks as the defense needs to collapse low. But also, Philly runs Redick off Embiid high screens that free the former up for easy looks as well. Over the last week, Redick is 6-26 from three and 11-48 from the field. That’s been something of a disaster and led to his price falling below $5K on DraftKings. It doesn’t help either that three of those four games were against tougher defensive matchups in the Warriors, Thunder and Blazers. Now he’ll get the Magic who aren’t even close to the caliber of those other squads. I think we can roster him on both sites, but especially on FanDuel where the position is looking rather tough.

Power Forward

Tobias Harris FD - $8000 DK - $7400
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 38.78 DK - 40.18
Tobias Harris is obviously another one of the big beneficiaries (fantasy-wise) of having Embiid off the court for the Sixers. Over the last five games, Harris playing nearly 39 minutes a game and taking close to 17 shots (including eight three-point attempts) for an average of 25 points and eight rebounds. Like Simmons, the price is climbing because of the recent opportunity, but on this slate I do think we are still getting him at a relative bargain considering the usage rates and top-level minutes.

Thaddeus Young FD - $7000 DK - $5900
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 34.01 DK - 33.05
Thad finally saw the minutes tick up in the absence of Sabonis last game, playing 37 in the loss to the Magic. He finished with 13 points and six rebounds and was efficient from the field, shooting 6-8. In this offense, he’s rarely going to find a ton of shots, but I think the minutes upside is there in this game against the Bulls. Chicago struggles to defend, well, anyone and the Pacers front court with no Sabonis makes for an interesting cash game stack on both sites.

Strongly consider Draymond Green (FD $6500 DK $5600) as a DraftKings’ pick.

Additionally, if Paul George is out again, then I really like Jerami Grant (FD $6000 DK $5300) on both sites.

Center

Myles Turner FD - $7500 DK - $5700
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 40.73 DK - 37.89
With Domantas Sabonis out over the last few games, I’ve expected much more production/ minutes from Turner, but that hasn’t really come to fruition. He’s struggled to find much usage (less than eight shots per game over the last three) and had only one rebound in 23 minutes against the Timberwolves. There’s been plenty of foul trouble in there as well facing off against Vucevic and Towns in the last two games. But now he gets a dream matchup against a Bulls’ team allowing 11% more scoring and 10% more rebounds than league average against opposing centers. Turner will stretch the court on offense, but I think he can put in work against this Chicago team and we are getting him at something of a discount because of the recent performance.

Clint Capela FD - $7600 DK - $6600
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 41.22 DK - 41.94
Capela is coming off of two rough games that saw him take a combined six (!) shots in 70 (!) minutes. That’s incredibly low usage for a guy who averages about 11 shots per game on the season. I don’t think we see that kind of disappearing act as the new normal for the Rockets’ center and they’ll likely call on him for big minutes again against the Raptors. He’ll get Marc Gasol, which isn’t the easiest assignment on either ends of the court, but Capela’s price is majorly depressed because of the last couple of games. Let’s buy low on the guy, especially on DraftKings.

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