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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA picks for 3/2/19
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Point guard
Ben Simmons FD - $9200 DK - $8500
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 46.21 DK - 46.39
Simmons has struggled since Tobias Harris came over to Philly but he finally appears to be finding his rhythm recently. Not only does he have at least 32 DK points in six-straight games, Simmons is averaging 40 fantasy points per game in that span. He's actually scored at least 52 fantasy points in two of his last three games, as he's truly thriving without Joel Embiid. The projected pace of this game benefits an elite athlete like Simmons too, with both of these clubs ranking top-10 in pace rate.
Rajon Rondo FD - $5600 DK - $5300
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 33.75 DK - 34.99
If Rondo continues to start, he'll be the highest owned player on the slate tonight. Since returning from injury on January 24, Rondo is averaging 29 DK points per game across 14 fixtures. His upside is hard to overlook too, as he has at least 41 fantasy points six times in that stretch - including back to back games over 46 fantasy points. That's the production of a $7,000 player, as we get to use Rondo below $6,000 on both sites. The matchup might be the best part of this play though, with Phoenix ranking bottom-three in both points allowed and defensive efficiency.
Also consider:
Cory Joseph, IND vs. ORL: Joseph gains serious value if Tyreke Evans misses this game, as he flirted with a triple-double on Thursday when Evans sat out.
Shooting Guard
Jimmy Butler FD - $8400 DK - $7300
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 40.76 DK - 40.14
Butler is in the same boat as Simmons, as he's been much better since Embiid went down. In fact, Butler leads the team with a 24 percent usage rate with Embiid off the floor, and he's providing 1.2 DK points-per-minute. In his last two games, Butler has played an average of 35 minutes, averaging 40.3 fantasy points per game while taking 18 shots a game. That's the Chicago Bulls-Butler that we used to love, as he's still a bargain in this $7,500-range. While Butler is 0-of-14 from three-point range in two games against the Warriors this season, he's still providing 32 DK points per game. That means he has a 50-point potential here if he can just find his jumper in what should be an up-tempo game.
Justin Holiday FD - $3800 DK - $3900
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 22.5 DK - 22.31
Holiday is not the sort of guy who's going to win you a tournament but he's too cheap with his current role. It's the injuries to Jaren Jackson Jr. and Kyle Anderson that has kept him relevant, as they've had to play Holiday big minutes in their absences. Over his last 19 games, Holiday is playing 32.4 minutes per game while taking about 10 shots per outing. That's all the usage you can hope for from a player south of $4,000, as he could provide huge value if he's hitting his shot. Over his last 11 games, Holiday is averaging 20.2 DK points per outing, which is approaching 6X value at this price tag.
Also consider:
Tim Hardaway Jr., DAL vs. MEM: Hardaway has become the number-two guy on this offense, as he's undervalued on both sites below $6,000.
Small Forward
LeBron James FD - $12300 DK - $11400
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 62.93 DK - 65.95
LeBron is in full King James mode right now, as he knows it's now-or-never time for the Lakers. Over his last eight games, James is averaging 27.3 points, 9.6 rebounds, 10.7 assists and 2.1 steals per game. That's over 60 fantasy points per game, as it's clear he is in playoff mode already. That means he's worth playing at any price and he becomes particularly intriguing in a tasty matchup like this. Not only does Phoenix rank 29th in defensive efficiency and 28th in points allowed, they also allow the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards. Now this IS the second half of a road back to back, but given the lack of other great pay-up options you might be forced to go here.
Will Barton FD - $5600 DK - $5700
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 29.63 DK - 30.7
There are a lot of bodies to compete with in Denver right now, but Barton has prevailed as one of the go-to guys. In fact, Barton ranks third on the team in usage over the last two games, as he's providing 42 DK points per game in that span while playing 36 minutes per game. While that gaudy production is a bit outlandish, the fact that he's averaging 26.4 fantasy points per game across his last 16 outings shows it's not too much of a fluke. The matchup is what makes me believe he can duplicate his recent form, as he faces a Pelicans team who ranks 24th in defensive efficiency and 26th in points allowed while playing at the sixth-fastest pace in the NBA.
Also consider:
Kevin Durant, OKC at SAN: Durant has at least 27 fantasy points in every game this season, as he has as good of a floor as any player on this slate.
Royce O'Neale, UTA vs. MIL: If Ricky Rubio sits out again, O'Neale could pick up another start. If that's the case, O'Neale is a fantastic value in the $4,000-range on both sites considering he played 40 minutes on Thursday.
Power Forward
Julius Randle FD - $9000 DK - $8000
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 42.59 DK - 45.24
Randle is one of the best plays on the board, as he should go crazy with Anthony Davis sidelined. Coming into Friday, Randle is averaging 39.7 DK points across his last 32 fixtures. His floor has been respectable too, as he has at least 30 fantasy points in all but two of those games. His role with Davis sidelined is hard to overlook too, as Randle is posting a 29 percent usage rate with Davis sidelined while averaging 1.3 DK points-per-minute. In two games against Denver this season, Randle has scored at least 44 fantasy points in both fixtures.
Bam Adebayo FD - $5200 DK - $5200
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 31.45 DK - 30.64
Adebayo is always worth a shot when Hassan Whiteside is injured, as he's one of the best values on this slate. In his seven starts this season, Adebayo is playing 30 minutes a game while averaging 33 fantasy points per outing. That's no surprise when you consider his per-minute production, with Adebayo averaging 1.1 DK points-per-minute this season. That's why he's such a good deal on both sites, as that sort of production and role are usually indicative of a player north of $6,000. The icing on the cake is the matchup though, with Brooklyn allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.
Dwight Powell FD - $6000 DK - $5200
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 35.21 DK - 34.75
Powell has been superb since Dallas traded off DeAndre Jordan and Harrison Barnes, as he's seen a huge increase in fantasy production. Not only does Powell have at least 27 DK points in four-straight games, he's also reached that total in seven of his last nine games in total. He's actually averaging 28 fantasy points per game in that nine-game span, as it's clear he's becoming a much bigger part of the offense. Facing the Memphis frontcourt should garner Powell plenty of minutes too, as Dallas doesn't have many bodies to match up with players like Joakim Noah and Jonas Valanciunas.
Center
Andre Drummond FD - $10300 DK - $12000
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 50.78 DK - 50.64
Drummond has quietly been one of the best centers in the league since the all-star break and he should absolutely abuse this tasty matchup. Since returning from injury on January 25, Drummond is averaging 54 fantasy points per game. That absurd production is enough incentive to use him but this matchup is even better. In fact, the Cavaliers currently rank dead-last in defensive efficiency. That's evident by the fact that Drummond has at least 54 DK points in both his fixtures against Cleveland this season. Not to mention, Cleveland will be without Kevin Love, Ante Zizic and Tristan Thompson, so Drummond should assault this weak frontline. He's only available for the 5pm slate, but I figured he was wortha mention anyway.
Myles Turner FD - $7100 DK - $5900
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 36.25 DK - 34.38
Turner is coming off of one of the weirdest games yet, where he posted 6 blocks, 1 steal, 3 points, and 1 rebound while nearly fouling out against Minnesota. Your guess is as good as mine. Turner is one of the best values on DraftKings, as he should be at $7,000 on both sites. Since returning from injury on January 15, Turner is averaging 35 DK points per game. That's 6X value at this unbelievable price tag, as Turner could see even more minutes with Domantas Sabonis sidelined. Turner was fantastic the last time he played the Magic too, as he collected 39.3 DK points on January 31. That's no surprise when you consider the fact that Orlando allows the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing centers. Center is pretty thin on the main slate, and I think Turner brings enough to the table for cash game consideration.
Also consider:
Jakob Poeltl, SAN vs. OKC: With Pau Gasol now out of the picture, Poeltl should continue to see more minutes. In fact, Poetltl started on Wednesday and played 34 minutes en route to 38 FanDuel points. If he can duplicate that in this $4,500 price range, he's one of the best values on the board.
