Oklahoma City Thunder's Russell Westbrook dribbles the ball during the first half of an NBA basketball game against the Los Angeles Lakers, Wednesday, Jan. 3, 2018, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
After a huge 11-game slate on Monday, we have a short three-game slate here. There are some fascinating matchups though, as we have five of the six teams in playoff contention. The games we want to exploit are the ORL-NYK and DEN-OKC matchups. There's a ton of value in these games and very little in the BOS-TOR fixture. While we expect that Toronto game to be close, those teams simply don't have any good values because of their minute distributions and high prices. We'll have just one recommendation for that game but don't forget about studs like Kawhi Leonard and Kyrie Irving if they fit into your lineup. So let's get started with the Knicks and Magic.
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After a huge 11-game slate on Monday, we have a short three-game slate here. There are some fascinating matchups though, as we have five of the six teams in playoff contention. The games we want to exploit are the ORL-NYK and DEN-OKC matchups. There's a ton of value in these games and very little in the BOS-TOR fixture. While we expect that Toronto game to be close, those teams simply don't have any good values because of their minute distributions and high prices. We'll have just one recommendation for that game but don't forget about studs like Kawhi Leonard and Kyrie Irving if they fit into your lineup. So let's get started with the Knicks and Magic.
Orlando comes into this matchup as a 6.5-point favorite and there's a total of 215.5.
This is easily the lowest total on this slate, as these are two of the weakest offenses in the league. In fact, New York ranks 25th in scoring while the Magic sit 23rd. The projected 198 pace rate is incredibly low as well, as that too is the lowest on this three-game slate. These teams have played twice already this season, with Orlando winning both games by an average of 20 points per game.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 49.24 DK - 50.65
Vucevic is easily the best player at $10,000 or below on this slate, as he should abuse this tasty matchup. In fact, the Knicks allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers. That's clear by the fact that Vucevic is averaging 52 DK points in two games against the Knicks this season, despite playing just 28.6 minutes per game. That comes from a player who has at least 41 fantasy points in seven straight outings.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 31.13 DK - 30.12
Isaac has been a different player over recent weeks, as something clicked right before the all-star break. In fact, Isaac is averaging 30.8 DK points across his last 15 fixtures. That recent form should be beneficial in a matchup like this, with New York sitting 30th in OPRK against forwards, according to DraftKings. Isaac destroyed the Knicks in their last matchup too, as he collected 32 fantasy points in just 24 minutes. These minute totals may look low for the Magic but remember that both those games were blowouts, as this 6.5-point spread indicates a much closer battle.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 32.6 DK - 29.22
With DeAndre Jordan (ankle) expected to miss this game. Robinson is one of the best plays on this slate. In the last game that Jordan missed, Robinson played a season-high 30 minutes while collecting 15 points, 14 rebounds and five blocks. That sort of line is no surprise when you consider the fact that Robinson is averaging 33 DK points per game across his last eight outings, despite playing fewer than 22 minutes per game. Robinson should have no problem against Orlando too, as they allow the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing centers.
Toronto comes into this matchup as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 226.
While the 226-point total would indicate a high-scoring game, this is actually a battle of two of the best defenses in the NBA. In fact, both these clubs rank top-10 in points allowed and top-eight in defensive efficiency. The home team has dominated this series thus far, as the home team has prevailed in each of the first three outings. In addition, the home team has won by at least seven points in each fixture as well.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 34.32 DK - 33.83
Horford is the only guy in this game who we consider a great value, as he's projected to hit close to 6X value on DraftKings. That's no surprise when you consider his recent form, with Horford averaging 41.8 fantasy points per game across his last 13 outings. He's shown that he can exploit this tough Toronto defense too, averaging 38 DK points in three games against them this season. Marcus Smart is also a decent option on DraftKings at $4,100, as he's averaging 25 DK points per game across his last eight outings. That may sound like nothing special, but that's north of 5X value at this dirt-cheap price tag.
Denver comes into this matchup as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 237.
This marks the third of four meetings between these teams, with the Nuggets prevailing in the first two outings. Despite the fact that this 237-point total is the largest on this slate, those last two meetings would indicate otherwise. In fact, the Nuggets won the first matchup, 105-98 and followed that up with a 109-98 road victory in the most recent fixture. Those point totals come nowhere near this projected total and it's strange considering the defenses these teams possess. The Thunder currently rank fourth in defensive efficiency while the Nuggets rank seventh in points allowed. That doesn't mean this is a game to avoid for fantasy purposes by any means, as this close spread should make it one of the tightest games of the night.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 56.83 DK - 59.13
Westbrook is absolutely on fire right now and he's simply too tough to fade. Not only does he have at least 53 fantasy points in 13 straight games, but Westbrook is also providing 61.1 DK points per game in that span. That 53-point floor is hard to overlook, as Westbrook has had success against Denver throughout his career. In fact, Westbrook is averaging north of 60 fantasy points per game in the last three seasons against the Nuggets. Fitting him in will be tough because of this price tag but he's a great centerpiece to any lineup with these gaudy numbers in his back pocket.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 34.31 DK - 33.39
Millsap got off to a rough start this season but he's returned to his all-star form since returning from injury. Over his last three games, Millsap is averaging 51 fantasy points per outing. That's 6X value at this price on both sites, as that sort of upside is hard to overlook on a three-game slate like this. His usage has really skyrocketed in that stretch too, as Millsap is averaging 15 shots and 31 minutes a game while posting a usage rate north of 20 percent in that span.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 32.66 DK - 33.66
This is simply the case of a player being priced to cheaply, as Murray should be a $7,000 player on both sites. Not only has he scored at least 31 fantasy points in both games since returning from injury, but he's also reached that 31-point threshold in 11 of his last 15 games in total. Murray has had some big games against the Thunder this season too, averaging 36.4 DK points in two outings against them this season.
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