Kevin Harvick (4) drives out of Turn 4 during the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series auto race at Phoenix International Raceway, Sunday, Nov. 13, 2016, in Avondale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ralph Freso)
Chris Durell will be bringing you his weekly race breakdown, top trends, and pre-qualifying targets to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. You can also grab a copy of his free DFS NASCAR Cheatsheet that includes a ton of stats and a customizable model.
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Atlanta Motor Speedway - Hampton, GA
Track - 1.54 Mile Quad-Oval Intermediate
The Daytona 500 is in the books and it is time to really get the season going as the Monster Energy Cup series heads to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500.
I touched on it a bit last week with the new rules package for 2019 on all tracks over one mile and this will be the first race with the package in place. In short, NASCAR is increasing the size of the spoiler to create more downforce while adding a tapered spacer(similar to a restrictor plate) to the engine to lower the overall horsepower. All of these changes are in place to keep the cars closer together and somewhat restrict that leader who gets out front and wins by 2-3 seconds or more(Kevin Harvick last year at this track). Here is a look at some of the changes compared to last year via Bob Pockrass on Twitter.
What does this mean for fantasy? While we will have to take a wait and see approach, I would think it takes away some of the shine for dominator points as we could see multiple lead changes if there is lots of pack racing. If you didn't think there was enough variance in NASCAR DFS as it is, buckle up as this close pack racing could produce more wrecks with cars closer together like we saw last week. Sure it won't be happening at 200 mph but it will sure add a whole new thought process and strategy if we are seeing "the Big one" at mile and a half tracks consistently. While I do think the best cars and best drivers will still be at the front, we could see some surprise performances early on as teams sort out the new package in competition and make adjustments and this leads to a more contrarian approach from a GPP perspective.
Let's now dig in and look at some race trends and track history and then dive into the pre-qualifying picks. Following final practice on Saturday, I will also be updating my model on my DFS NASCAR sheet and providing a list of my final targets. Be sure to check that out!
Kevin Harvick absolutely dominated the race here last year leading 181 laps en route to victory and has finished Top 10 here in four straight and seven of his last eight races at the track. Brad Keselowski won the race here in 2017 after Harvick led a whopping 292 laps and Brad is also the only driver to finish Top 5 in the last two races here at Atlanta. Chase Elliott has now made three starts in the Cup Series here at Atlanta and has finished Top 10 in each race in probably more impressive is that twice he has had to drive through the field from outside a Top 20 starting position. Seven-time champion, Jimmie Johnson, leads all drivers with five career wins here but has struggled lately with a 19th and 27th place finish since his back to back wins in 2016 and 2015. In a new ride in 2019, Kurt Busch is not far behind Jimmie with three career wins(2010, 2009, 2002) here and has finished inside the Top 10 in three straight and nine of his last 12 races here. Kurt's little brother Kyle Busch has two career wins here(2013, 2008) but has lacked in the dominator category as he has led more than 50 laps just three times in 20 races(66-2012, 173-2008, 77-2207). Like Elliott, Kyle Larson has had success here early in his career with Top 10 finishes in four of his five races at the track.
Not all intermediate tracks are built the same and Atlanta is definitely one where the car setup is unique but generally, those drivers who do well on one intermediate track do well on almost all of them. In 2018, it was Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch absolutely dominating the mile and a half tracks as they combined for seven fo the 12 wins on the track type. Busch was a bit more consistent finishing inside the Top 10 in 11 of the 12 races with a 5.3 average finish while Harvick was involved in crashes at both Las Vegas and Charlotte leaving him with a 9.3 average finish on the track type in 2018. After picking up seven wins on intermediate tracks during his championship 2017 season, Martin Truex Jr. only won once(Kentucky) on the track type in 2018 but was still consistent with a 7.1 average finish with 340 laps led. The Penske duo of Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski combined for three wins with Keselowski winning at Darlington and Las Vegas and Joey Logano winning the most important race of the season at Homestead to win the Championship. Logano also closed out the season leading 40 or more laps in four straight mile and half races.
Kurt Busch(DK - $8,500 FD - $9,600)
The first name I am drawn to this week from a value perspective is Kurt Busch. Looking at the drivers in the sub $9K range on DraftKings, Kurt is the only one with one let alone two Top 10's in the last two races here and is also one of just four drivers in this field with multiple wins here at Atlanta. I don't look a whole lot at opening practice but it is positive so the #1 car inside the Top 5 and in the mid $8K range on DraftKings and mid $9K range on FanDuel, I will likely have a ton of exposure this week.
Kevin Harvick(DK - $12,200 FD - $14,000)
Sure it's a new race package that could hinder a dominator but it's the same old Atlanta so don't overlook Kevin Harvick. If anyone can figure a line to get out front and stay there it's Harvick who has led the most laps in five straight races here with 918 total, a whopping 769 more than any other driver(Jimmie Johnson 2nd with 146).
**Update - Harvick had troubles with steering during qualifying and should be considered GPP this week**
Kyle Busch(DK - $10,500 FD - $13,500)
It will be hard to ignore Kyle Busch this week on DraftKings as he is the fourth most expensive driver on a track type he dominated a year ago with three wins, seven Top 5's, and 11 Top 10's in 12 races. Atlanta hasn't been Busch's best track but it sure hasn't been his worst as he returns after a 7th place finish a year ago and he also has two career wins here(2013, 2208). I like him even more now with Harvick's steering issue and he will be a core play on DraftKings and a nice GPP pivot on FanDuel.
**Update - Busch damaged his car in final practice and will be going to a backup car. This will also put him to the rear at the start of the race but he keeps his qualifying position. GPP only this week.**
Erik Jones(DK - $8,100 FD - $8,800)
Jones took a huge step in his second Cup season and first with JGR in 2018 as he won a race(Daytona in July) and increased his Top 10 count to nine(five in rookie season). The price seems too cheap for a driver and team on the rise with big expectations in 2019 and he returns to Atlanta where he has finished 14th and 11th in his first two trips. I that a 10th-12th place finish is his floor this week with Top 10 and even Top 5 upside.
Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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