FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Friday 2/22/19

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Point Guard

Reggie Jackson FD - $5700 DK - $5600
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 28.62 DK - 30.08
In what will become something of a theme for these FanDuel and DraftKings’ picks, the Pistons are in a great spot tonight and I think (even for a big slate) we can consider stacking a lot of the team. They face off against the Hawks who run the fastest pace in the league (106.4) and have the this-worst defensive efficiency. We’ve said it basically all season long, but this is the best matchup you can get in DFS. After getting shuffled around in rotations for much of the season, Jackson’s opportunity in closer games has been somewhat consistent in the short term, averaging mid-30’s minutes as long as the Pistons are in blowouts. Over the last six games, he’s averaging 19 points and six assists with the odd rebound here and there. Vegas has the Pistons as -3.5 road favorites so the game projects to stay within striking distance and Jackson could very well be part of a Detroit cash game stack.

Jeff Teague FD - $7100 DK - $5900
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 35.47 DK - 35.79
The Timberwolves are probably out of the playoff hunt, though I suppose mathematically they still have reasons to go for it. Even with Andrew Wiggins (and to a lesser extent, Tyus Jones) rejoining the rotation, I’m still bullish on Teague in this matchup. The Knicks’ defense is epic garbage, especially when it comes to defend opposing backcourts with the combo deal of Dennis Smith and Damyean Dotson occupying the starting roles. Teague has double-doubled in each of the last two games, running 35+ minutes in both. Again, I think the usage ticks back down some as the T-Wolves get healthier (though the Karl-Anthony Towns injury news throws that into question).
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Shooting Guard

Zach LaVine FD - $7800 DK - $7300
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 37.52 DK - 38.73
There isn't a lot to love at shooting guard tonight, but one guy that's dancing around our optimal lineups is Zach Lavine. If you look at Lavine's season-long averages, he looks like a guy that's basically fairly priced in a league average match-up.  While I'm hesitant to overweight recent games, I might make some exceptions here. Lavine has averaged just over 4 assists per game for the season, but since the All-Star Brea,k he's averaged roughly 6.5. The minutes have been extremely consistent as well in spite of a few games that got out of hand. The Bulls are a daily risk to get blown out, but being 8 point dogs shouldn't scare us away. At a thin position, Lavine looks like a relatively high floor option with plenty of upside as well.

Luke Kennard FD - $4900 DK - $4000
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 25.77 DK - 26.91
Kenner moved into the starting lineup in the Piston’s last game before the All-Star break and looked like he played well enough in the loss to Boston to keep the spot going forward. He finished with 11 points, five rebounds and three assists in 36 minutes. That final stat is the most encouraging and if this run is the new normal then we are getting him at a major discount, especially on DraftKings at $4000. He sees a moderate usage downgrade when sharing the court with the other starters, but the minutes more than make up for it and I suspect we see him as a chalkier value play on this slate.

Strongly consider Bradley Beal (FD 9400 DK 9200) considering how many minutes he's been playing. Some of that was because of Tomas Satoransky missing a couple of games. But I do like how much the Wizards used Beal as the primary ballhandler and the assist numbers ticked up.

 

Small Forward

Paul George FD - $11800 DK - $10800
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 61.4 DK - 62.15
Making a guy playing Utah your most expensive player hasn't been a popular DFS strategy historically, but it sort of looks like that's how things are shaking out right now.  Part of this is a credit to what George has been doing recently, and part of it is that there just aren't a lot of good big money options here. You've got Westbrook in this same match-up, Jokic at a competitive center position (where you might just want to play Drummond), and then you're down into the upper midrange of guys. So what sets George apart? The incredibly consistent minutes. He's bringing Oklahoma a two-way package that they simply can't keep off the floor, playing him 40+ minutes in each of the three games leading up to the All-Star Break. He's shot 20+ times in 8 of his last 9 games, and the one game he took off in there was when the Thunder blew out Memphis. In a game with a 4 point spread, George looks as safe as they come.

Deandre Bembry FD - $4100 DK - $3300
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 23.73 DK - 23.47
Kevin Huerter is doubtful with an ankle sprain and that will mean some shakeup to the Hawks’ minutes and rotations. I suspect we see Bembry enter the starting lineup. Last time Huerter missed a game this was the case, though Bembry was admittedly bad in that one, playing 28 minutes and scoring only two points on 1-4 shooting. But if he were in the starting lineup, I’d easily take the risk with him on both sites, especially DraftKings where he’s coming close to the minimum. Keep an eye out for this starting lineup information. Kent Bazemore (FD 4700 DK 4200) could also be the one to enter the lineup and that would vault him to a value play as well.

Consider Joe Ingles (FD 5500 DK 5000) against the Thunder.

 

Power Forward

Blake Griffin FD - $9200 DK - $8900
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 47.3 DK - 49.41
We took one position off with the Pistons’ train but pick right back up with them at power forward. The Pistons are firmly in *fighting for the playoffs* mode and Griffin played 37 or more minutes in three of the last four games. We should see continued concentration around the starters’ rotations and Griffin’s usage will be in play in the matchup against the Hawks. He’s averaging 30 points, seven assists and seven rebounds while also shooting over 40% from three in the short term. The Hawks have actually defended opposing bigs better than guards/ wings this season, but Griffin plays so much away from the basket that I’m not too concerned with those numbers. He could end up being a popular play on all sites tonight because of the pace and matchup.

Dario Saric FD - $5200 DK - $4800
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 30.03 DK - 31.47
Taj Gibson FD - $3800 DK - $3800
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 23.52 DK - 22.99
Power forward is once again a pretty weak position but I do think there’s some value to these guys. Saric has supplanted Gibson in the starting lineup and that looks like it’s going to stick going forward. He’s been solid since moving into that role, averaging 17 points and eight rebounds in theist couple of games. That was without Andrew Wiggins’ usage though so there’s reason to suspect the per minute shot attempts drop some here. But there’s also now news that Karl-Anthony Towns is questionable and Gorgui Dieng has already been ruled out. That could leave plenty of big man minutes open, paving the way for Gibson to see more minutes as well. Taj was decent off the bench over the last couple of games and his price is near the minimums on both sites.

There's a case to be made for Ivan Rabb (FD 3800 DK 5600) on FanDuel. He's barely played even while starting in the short-term but with no Jonas Valanciunas and maybe no Jaren Jackson Jr., Rabb could enter the discussion for Friday.

 

Center

Andre Drummond FD - $10900 DK - $9000
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 51.78 DK - 51.32
Okay, we’ve officially run out of positions to write up Pistons for, but we’ll mostly go out on this note. Drummond’s occassional disappearing act because of late-game rotations or foul trouble (or both) aren’t as big a concern in this matchup against the Hawks. And dude’s put up some amazing numbers the short-term averaging 27 points, 18 rebounds and three steals per game over the last three. It’s mostly because the minutes are at their peak and should that remain the case he has the highest fantasy floor (relative to price) of any play on this slate.

Joakim Noah FD - $4000 DK - $3800
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 28.67 DK - 28.16
With Valanciunas out, you have about 20 minutes to spread around to the other Memphis bigs. The last time JV missed a game, Noah played 30 minutes and went off for 19 points and 14 boards against a depleted New Orleans frontcourt. Today he'll go up against a Clippers team that's allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing centers on the year, and that's just the cherry on top. This is your run of the mill price and opportunity mismatch, and the only real question here is whether Drummond is just too good a payoff to get away from.

 

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