Daily Fantasy Hockey Strategy for FanDuel & DraftKings

Hello hockey fans. I have had many requests for an article to go over my strategy for cash games and GPP's and how they differ. I have also been asked many questions about my daily cheatsheet and some of the advanced stats that are provided and how they can help us make informed decisions when constructing lineups. Well, the time has come so let's get started.

Hockey is back and with it come our NHL projections which help inform these picks every night. When you purchase a DFSR NHL subscription to our base hockey projections you also get access to our brand new NFL DFS suite of tools including full projections, optimal NFL lineups and our Player Lab, which includes filters to help you create NFL lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings for any format. It’s a set of tools well beyond anything we’ve ever had, and something we feel will help our users *ahem* tackle the NFL season.

If you want to see the numbers behind our projections, create lineups with a single click, or research as deeply as your heart desires, click the button below to test out yourself.

First of all, I wanted to touch on some of the websites I use on a daily basis to view line combinations, starting goalies, get advanced stats, and much more. You are doing yourself an injustice if you are not constantly monitoring LeftWingLock or DailyFaceoff. Both sites provide up to date lists of every team's line combinations at all strengths, projected and confirmed starting goalies with links to sources, weekly schedules, injury news, and much more all for FREE. You can also choose to upgrade to a paid service for DailyFaceoff that gives you access to a lineup optimizer, premium chat, and more. For LeftWingLock, you can pay around $3 a year for their smartphone app which gives you all the same information including notifications. For advanced stats, I recommend using Corsica which offers a ton of next level statistics at the team and player level. Last but certainly not least is Hockey Reference which gives you free access to almost any stat imaginable for any player or team in the history of the NHL.

Cash Game Strategy

A cash game is defined as a contest where around 50% of the field is paid out. It includes 50/50 contests, double-up contests, and head to head contests. The first thing to realize when playing cash games is that you are playing for the long term and really need to be disciplined in your strategy. I am not saying don't ever make adjustments to your strategy but don't take small sample size results and overhaul things. Let things play out over a week or two or more and then start analyzing where you could make changes to become more successful. With that said, let's jump right in.

The first thing I do for cash games is direct my attention to the goalie position as it is very important as you only get to roster one on DraftKings and FanDuel. I compare it closely with the quarterback in daily fantasy football and starting pitcher in daily fantasy baseball. I will start by looking at the Vegas odds for the night and narrowing down the biggest favorites on the slate(usually 4-5 options on big slates). I will then turn my attention to the home teams to narrow the list down even further(1-2 options most nights). From there I will look at those goalie's recent success, home/road splits, opposition splits and offensive rankings to make my final decision on a goalie. There are nights where we get multiple goalies in elite spots and in that case I will, most times, split them in my cash lineups rather than try and pick one or the other. On the flip side, there may also be slates where most of the top goalies or big favorites are on the road with minimal or no home options that you feel comfortable with. In this case, I will either risk it with a road goalie or just concentrate on GPP lineups that night. There are a select few goalies(Vasilevskiy, Rask recently) who are practically matchup proof and have performed just as well on the road so most times it is not an issue if they are in a good spot anyway.

Next, I try to narrow down a two to three player core to build my cash lineup around. These players are usually in the elite tier but not always. Again, I go back to the Vegas odds to see who comes in as big favorites and projected for the most goals to get my initial list. From there, I will break down those teams top lines and top scorers and their recent success. Not only are we looking for players who can record points(pretty obvious) but we are also looking for players who can provide a high floor should they only get one point or even zero. To get to this floor, I look closely at shots on goal per game and then also dive into some advanced stats like iCorsi/60(shots on net+shots blocked+shots that miss net) to get a better feel of a player's overall shot volume. There are currently only five players in the league who average over four shots on goal per game(Brent Burns, Alex Ovechkin, Evander Kane, Tyler Seguin, Vladimir Tarasenko). All five of those players also sit inside the Top 20 in iCorsi/60 with Tarasenko(25.8), Ovechkin(24.3), and Burns(22.3) all inside the Top 5. If any of these players get an above average matchup vs. defensively weak team or team that allows a ton of shots, they are locks for me. The only caveat here is Brent Burns as I tend to go value at defense in cash games(will touch on below).

Once I choose my core players, I will to try and pair each of them with a one of their linemates or a player they skate with on the powerplay. A strategy that works well when targeting high projected teams is pairing a top line player with a second line player given they skate together on the powerplay. An example of this is the Flyers as Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux, and Wayne Simmonds skate together on the top line with Jakub Voracek joining them on the top powerplay unit. When the Flyers are big favorites in a game vs. say the Coyotes, Panthers, or Sabres(bad defenses) it would make sense to pair Couturier or Giroux with Voracek in cash games to get exposure to two lines and heavy exposure to the top powerplay unit. Most times your core players are going to be in the upper tier of pricing and to fit a high priced goalie and multiple forwards into a lineup you will also have to find a few value plays. Not only am I looking for price and shot volume, but I am also looking closely at line movement which can result from injuries on a team. For instance, the Penguins who seem to constantly switch up who is skating with Sidney Crosby. Another one most recently was when Logan Couture of the Sharks was out with an injury, Kevin Labanc stepped up to the second line with Tomas Hertl and both provided nice cheap value for a short period of time. Opportunity with these value plays is much more important to me in any format than shot volume.

I mentioned earlier that I love using two value defense in my cash lineups and will normally try and target one in the mid-tier($4000-$5000) and one in the punt range($3000-$4000). There are few things to look for when selecting these players. First of all, if you can find a player in these ranges that get significant time on the powerplay, lock him in. Next, I look for not only shot volume but also blocked shots as both sites value them the same. Players that skate on the penalty kill generally get more opportunities for blocked shots so pay attention to that as well when looking at line combinations or stats on various sites. I am not looking for a big performance from my defense in cash games but more of a safe floor plus salary relief to fit my top forwards and goalie into my lineups.

GPP Strategy

For those of you new to daily fantasy sports, GPP stands for Guaranteed Prize Pool and some refer to them as tournaments. The difference between the formats is the payout structures as only about 20%-25% of the field gets paid out in a GPP tournament with anywhere from 15%-35% of the prize pool going to the Top 10 finishers and in the bigger, multi-entry tournaments, it is also common for a min-cash to not even double up their money. What does all this mean? It is much tougher to turn a profit consistently if you are not finishing at the top of the field but the intrigue of the big money prize pools is what draws people in and it really only takes one big win to turn an average season into a profitable one.

The biggest difference between cash games and GPP lineup construction is upside. While we tend to play it safe in cash games with guys who get consistent shot volume and/or blocks, we are somewhat discounting that in GPP's and looking for players who can get multiple points. Players like Josh Bailey(NYI) come to mind. While his linemate John Tavares consistently gets 3+ shots on goal per game and is safe in all formats, Bailey averages under two shots per game making him more vulnerable but he also has big multi-point upside as he skates on the top line and powerplay unit and benefits from playing beside an elite player like Tavares.

The other big thing to note about GPP's is that you can take more risks by stacking an entire line. This strategy is not recommended in cash games as you are putting almost all your eggs in one basket. For GPP's the upside is huge by using three-man stacks as there are three points that can be recorded on any one goal. Going deeper you can also target players from a team's top two lines, given they play together on the powerplay. This strategy is best used with a team with a top powerplay in the league facing a team that takes a lot of penalties and is weaker on the penalty kill. A good example of this is the Pittsburgh Penguins as Sidney Crosby usually skates with two value players on the top line(currently Daniel Sprong & Dominik Simon) but then joins Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel, and Patric Hornqvist on the top powerplay unit.

Another part of the lineup construction that differs for me in GPP is the selection of the goalie. While selecting the goalie is my first step in cash games, it is not always in GPP's. I will, most times, try and choose my line stacks first and the cost of those stacks determines where I will go at goalie. If I stack multiple teams with some value, I have no problem paying up for a top goalie despite the higher level of ownership. Most times, however, the cost of stacking multiple players from the same line does not allow us to pay up in which case we turn our attention to the value between the pipes. This value can be found in multiple ways starting with backups who are getting the start for a favored team. A few examples of teams with some talented backups are the St. Louis Blues Carter Hutton, San Jose Sharks Aaron Dell, Pittsburgh Penguins Triston Jarry, and Vegas Golden Knights Malcolm Subban. If you play both sites(DraftKings & FanDuel) it is also important to pay attention to the difference in pricing as there are a lot of times you will find a goalie priced near the top of one site but in the mid-tier in others. On my cheatsheet, I display the % of the salary cap for each player to help decipher which site is best for using each player.

The defense position is another spot I do things differently from cash games. I mentioned in cash games how I look to roster two value plays who contribute blocks or shots to create a high floor. These same players don't always work in GPP's as their upside is extremely limited. I also mentioned that powerplay ice-time is also not as important for cash games as long as they contribute those shots and blocks. In GPP's, powerplay time is very crucial as it helps add to the overall upside of a player. This doesn't mean you can't pay down and a couple examples are Colin Miller for Vegas, Olli Maatta for Pittsburgh, and Will Butcher for New Jersey. All three of those players have little safety for cash games but all three skate on the powerplay giving them added upside. Defense is also a spot I will pay up for in GPP's and normally in a spot where they are a third or fourth part of a team stack. Obviously, we want them to skate heavy minutes on the powerplay and be the so-called "quarterbacks" of the unit. A couple good examples of this are Brent Burns for San Jose, Shayne Gostisbehere for Philadelphia, P.K. Subban for Nashville, and John Klingberg for Dallas.

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions please leave them in the comments section below or contact me via Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9). Also, stay tuned for another strategy article which will be more directed towards some of the advanced statistics I mention in my articles.

Hockey is back and with it comes our NHL projections which help inform these picks every night. When you purchase a DFSR NHL subscription to our base hockey projections you also get access to our brand new NFL DFS suite of tools including full projections, optimal NFL lineups and our Player Lab, which includes filters to help you create NFL lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings for any format. It’s a set of tools well beyond anything we’ve ever had, and something we feel will help our users *ahem* tackle the NFL season.

If you want to see the numbers behind our projections, create linueps with a single click, or research as deeply as your heart desires, click the button below to test out yourself.