Oklahoma City Thunder's Paul George plays against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first half of an NBA preseason basketball game Friday, Oct. 5, 2018, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)
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Orlando is favored by 3 in a game with a 216 total. .
Welcome to NBA Thursday night. The NBA has gifted us a pretty interesting three-game slate on this lovely Valentine's Day. There are only three games to look at, but each one has its own set of challenges and there are a lot of pricey options for such a small slate. We'll kick things off in Orlando, where the Magic will host Charlotte in a game with just a 216 total. It's the lowest of the night and the game we'll likely end up with the least exposure to. It doesn't mean there aren't attractive options, though, so let's jump in and take a look at both sides.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 33.5 DK - 33.92
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 25.36 DK - 25.92
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 26.73 DK - 26.12
The Orlando Magic are a pretty average defense in general. They play at an average PACE and don't struggle against any one spot. With that being said, they also don't excel against any one position. They can be taken advantage of by just about anybody that's shooting their shot right and you don't need to actively avoid anyone. Jeremy Lamb has been phenomenal as of late, putting up 55 and 31 fantasy points in the last two contests. It's the first time he's gotten over 30 minutes consistently and it looks like he may be turning a corner for this third half of the season. If he once again sees the minutes, he's going to hit value in the mid-$6k's on both sites. The defense is far from focused on him and his athleticism will be enough to take advantage of either Fournier or Ross. He's the only guy I have much interest in playing in cash games from this Hornets squad. Kemba Walker is obviously in play as well, but the price makes him a lot less attractive. He's sandwiched in the mid-$10k's and is going to need you 50+ fantasy points. It's obviously a possibility, but I'd rather spend salary on one of the games with a higher over/under. On the cheaper side, Nicolas Batum and Cody Zeller are both very strong options. They are both priced under $6k and can be played in cash games if you just need a filler. Both will play big minutes and don't have much downside as long as the game stays close.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 48.44 DK - 49.95
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 26.43 DK - 27.48
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 26.74 DK - 25.61
On the Magic side, it all starts with Nikola Vucevic. He’s the engine that makes this team run and will do his best to end the first half on a good note. He has a solid match-up against Cody Zeller, who will struggle with Vuc moving to the outside. He’s pricey, but should go pretty low-owned for a three-game slate and could go for 50-60. After Vuc, there isn’t much to love in cash games. Evan Fournier has been getting consistent minutes and is the number two option behind Vucevic. In tournaments, he has upside at a position without much of it. You then get to Jonathan Isaac, who’s been phenomenal over the last two, but likely won’t keep it up. If you think he can, he’s the best play on Orlando. I just think we’re chasing points and I’d rather find someone in one of the later two games. I view Aaron Gordon similarly - the upside is there, but he could really burn you on these prices as well. All in all, it’s Nikola Vucevic and a bunch of guys that have upside, but a lot of risk.
Atlanta is favored 7 by in a game with a 224 total.
This match-up between the Hawks and Knicks figures to be a very interesting one to finish out the first half. Neither team has a star and both are wanting to spread it around and play team basketball. The game holds a 226 over/under and just a 7 point spread, so Vegas figures it will be close and high-scoring. This game is a great spot to get some value. Let’s jump in.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 26.75 DK - 28.01
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 34.93 DK - 35.51
The Knicks are obviously a dumpster fire right now, but at least they have some bright spots. Dennis Smith Jr. seems to fit and will end up being a star in no time. Kevin Knox, Mitchell Robinson, and Kadeem Allen are also phenomenal young talents that could easily bloom to pro stars. Tonight, I like all of them. The Knicks purposely sat these guys last night, knowing they were playing just the next night.
In cash games, Kevin Knox is my favorite New York Knickerbocker. He’s getting 35 minutes every single game and should be there once again tonight. The Hawks don’t play defense and Knox is more than willing to shoot the ball. You can play Dennis Smith Jr. as well, but he’s getting pricey and there isn’t much room for upside. Mitchell Robinson is a guy that will grab a lot of ownership, but I don’t necessarily love it. He’s going to put up FP when on the floor, but think he gets a minute decrease here with the starters playing full minutes. That leads us to DeAndre Jordan against a putrid Knicks interior. If the game stays close, he should have his way here. He’s extremely safe at center and a guy I have no worries about plugging in to whatever format. If you want to get fancy, Noah Vonleh has a lot of upside at his price if given 25+ minutes.
Kadeem Allen should also be a cash game staple tonight, assuming you trust the 27-32 minutes per game he'd played in the two games prior to last night's debacle.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 40.94 DK - 43.75
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 27.78 DK - 27.52
Moving over the the Hawks side, there isn’t nearly as much to love. Yes, you have your typical John Collins and Trae Young that you can play. With it being the last game before break, it’s safe to assume both guys would play at least close to 30 minutes against one of the worst defenses in basketball. Both Collins and Young can be played across the board if you like the prices. After those obvious plays, nothing really stands out on the Hawks. I do like Dewayne Dedmon with his size being necessary against Jordan, but I like two other centers more, so he will have a hard time fitting him. The Knicks didn’t look half bad last night, so I expect them to come out playing well and keep this game close in Atlanta. These teams are both bad, but their badness cancels one another out beautifully here. Make sure you don’t brush over either side of this game.
Oklahoma City is favored 4.5 in a game with a 237 total..
Now to the fun. The Thunder will head into New Orleans as 4.5 point favorites in a game with a 237 over/under. It’s already up from the opening 236, pointing to signs that it may be headed that way. Vegas obviously thinks the Pelicans play well enough to keep it interesting, so there’s no reason to avoid any of he studs. Let’s dive right in.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 58.95 DK - 60.48
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 61.59 DK - 63.76
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 34.45 DK - 33.44
The Thunder side of the ball is crystal clear. We know Russell Westbrook and Paul George are going to have the ball in their hands all night long and both make for excellent plays wherever you can fit them. I personally prefer George, but only because of positional scarcity and the minutes. If it stays close, guys like Pat Pat and Steven Adams could pay off in a huge way. The Pelicans play fast and don’t offer much of an interior resistance. Don’t shy away from anyone in this game.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 43.86 DK - 43.74
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 37 DK - 37.92
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 12.56 DK - 12.87
On the Pelicans side, it’s a bit more complex. I have a hard time guessing how Anthony Davis will be used. It’s the only hope the Pelicans have in keeping the game close, but do they even care at this point? Jrue Holiday is their second option and will have easy cash game success in this one. He’s a lock for 40 fantasy points with the upside for 60 if things go right. Outside of the two stars, the Pelicans always have a lot of interesting options. One of which will come if Elfrid Payton is out. Tim Frazier is always good in minutes and would be one of my favorite overall value plays on the slate. Julius Randle and Kenrich Williams are both in play for big tournaments, but it's hard to trust the minutes on the former and the performance of the latter (if Davis is in). All in all, Anthony Davis should bounce back and have a huge game. If he does, the role players should follow and put up a fight against a tough Thunder squad. Good luck tonight and feel free to comment down below with any questions or suggestions. Thanks!
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