(AP Photo/Jim Mone)
Welcome back hockey fans. The slow week for DFS NHL continues with another smaller slate so I will be doing things a bit differently and breaking down the slate game by game. After checking out the article be sure to download a copy of the DFS NHL Cheatsheet and check out our all-new optimizer on site.
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The first game of the night gives us a battle between two Eastern Conference teams in different positions when looking at the current playoff picture. The Bruins are just one point out of third in the Atlantic division and lead the wildcard standings while the Flyers are way down in 13th in the East. The Bruins are big favorites in this one and it makes sense as they own the second-best home record(17-7-2) in the East thanks to a Top 5 overall defense while the Flyers sit outside the Top 20 in both offense(22nd) and defense(28th). The Flyers have been much better as of late as they are riding a five-game win streak but offensively, I will be looking towards the Bruins for the most part unless you want to play the contrarian game in GPP formats.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 18.08 DK - 5.52
Pastrnak is easily my top play on this slate as he checks off all the boxes. I already talked about the terrific matchup as he faces a Flyers team that ranks 28th on defense and while he has been up and down lately he does come in with points in five of his last six games with 33 shots over his last 10 games. He is a player you can feel comfortable paying up for in all formats as he provides a high floor with an elite 11.9 shots/60 and 21.5 iCorsi/60 and a high ceiling averaging 9.6 scoring chances per 60. If you are stacking, my first choice is Patrice Bergeron at center or Brad Marchand at winger and you can also stack him with Jake DeBrusk who has been skating with that trio on the top powerplay unit.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 10.62 DK - 3.06
On a small slate, we are going to need some value to tie it all together so I also like turning to David Krejci tonight. He doesn't provide a high floor with just 13 shots in his last 10 games with a 5.4 shots/60 on the season but comes cheap and has been providing upside with nine points in those last 10 games while centering the second line and second powerplay unit. For cash games, I love pairing Krejci with DeBrusk and Pastrnak to give you exposure to both of the Bruins top lines and powerplay units.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 18.65 DK - 4.66
The goalie position is very thin tonight so it makes sense to turn to Halak(or Rask if he returns) as the Bruins are big -200 home favorites tonight. Halak has not been as sharp lately going 4-5-1 with a .893 save % over his last 10 games but has flashed some upside this season with three shutouts, once against these Flyers. I don't love it but it makes sense, especially on FanDuel where he is under $8K. Keep an eye on the news and projections as word is there is a strong chance Rask returns tonight.
Contrarian Stack
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 14.33 DK - 4.11
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 11.15 DK - 3.22
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 6.67 DK - 1.9
The contrarian approach in this game will be going with a Flyers stack and even more contrarian is the second line. Coots has been terrific lately with 11 points in his last 10 games while Voracek has chipped in with eight points and Lindblom five in their last 10 games. I will also be running this stack back with some Bruins to complete the game stack.
This game brings us a matchup between two rivals who are both sitting near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. The Rangers are in somewhat of a rebuild this season and have struggled offensively(27th) and have also really struggled on the road with an 8-14-2 record. Good news for them is that they face a Devils team who ranks 27th on defense but most of those struggles have come on the road as they have allowed over a goal per game less on home ice. This game has some fantasy relevance with a 6.0 Over/Under so let's take a look at some key players.
Opponent - NYR
Proj Pts FD - 16.98 DK - 4.25
From a GPP perspective, which I will mostly be playing tonight, I love Keith Kinkaid in this spot for a couple of reasons. The Devils are -145 home favorites facing a Rangers team that I mentioned above struggle offensively especially on the road where they are scoring just 2.5 goals per game. Kinkaid has not been great this season(14-14-6/.900 save %) but provides upside as he has faced over 35 shots per game over his last five games. I wouldn't normally consider Kinkaid on a regular sized slate but tonight is a little different with juts three games and limited goalie options.
Opponent - NYR
Proj Pts FD - 12.61 DK - 3.76
Opponent - NYR
Proj Pts FD - 9.56 DK - 2.8
For offense, I will be looking at the home-team Devils and it starts with Kyle Palmieri. He has been quiet on the offensive front lately without Taylor Hall in the lineup but does provide a high floor as the shot volume has remained high as he has 36 shots over his last 10 games. Tonight is a great matchup to get back on the scoresheet.
For value, I will almost 100% Mile Wood tonight at a sub $4K price on both sites. He has picked up the load with Taylor Hall out of the lineup and comes into tonight with points in six straight and seven of his last nine games. The advanced stats are also on his side when looking for a high floor as he sits with an elite 10.9 shots/60 which is backed up by an above average 17.7 iCorsi/60. Great play in all formats.
The final game of the night is a cross-conference matchup between two teams trending in different directions but both sit with Top 10 offenses. The Blue Jackets enter tonight having lost three straight and are barely holding on to the final wildcard position in the East while the Jets have won seven of their last 10 games and continue to lead the Predators in the Central Division. The other thing to note here is that the Jets are one of two teams(Flyers the other) who are playing a third game in four nights post-All-Star break.
Opponent - CBJ
Proj Pts FD - 16.98 DK - 4.25
While I am leaning Halak on FanDuel under $8K, I do think the decision is a lot harder on DraftKings where Hellebuyck is $100 cheaper. The Jets are playing a third game in four nights but at least it's at home where Hellebuyck has shown strong splits with a 13-6-1 record(9-8 on the road). He has also won three of his last four and five of his last seven starts and provides upside as the Jets are allowing a ton of shots per game.
Opponent - CBJ
Proj Pts FD - 14.07 DK - 4.05
Opponent - CBJ
Proj Pts FD - 15.74 DK - 4.55
Opponent - CBJ
Proj Pts FD - 17.1 DK - 5.03
I will be siding with the Jets offense tonight and it starts right at the top. Outside of the Bruins powerplay, this is my top stack of the night for GPP formats. From a PTS/$ perspective, Kyle Connor is right near the top of my overall list tonight. He is enjoying his role on the top line and comes in hot with 12 points in his last 10 games with 28 shots on goal while averaging over 20 minutes of ice-time. Wheeler provides the most consistent raw points and also comes in with 12 points in his last 10 games with 36 shots on goal giving him 62 points on the season.
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