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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - 1/27/19
Happy Sunday! The first one without any football since August, and we're prepared to make the most of it. We have a small but juicy two game slate in the afternoon, and then a nice fat main slate starting at 6pm. There is still a lot of injury news that we'll need to wait for as the day progresses, but let's take a look at what our lineup optimizer is seeing so far.
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Early Slate
Just a quick nod to the early slate before we go position by position on the late slate. There's actually a lot of value here if you can get away from the family for a bit to put a couple of lineups in.
A few Bulls guys are questionable at the moment, but Chandler Hutchinson's sudden absence frees up 35 minutes for the rest of the Bulls' wings. You also get a rare game where you can actually play both sides of the Chicago/Cleveland game since the two teams should be bad enough to not blow each other out. Both the Bulls and the Cavs have shown a willingness to play their starters bigger minutes when games stay close, and both teams are bringing plenty of playable options today. Bobby Portis will almost certainly be a must play here.
The Kings and Clippers are a similarly interesting spot, with guys like Nemanja Bjelica, Buddy Hield, and De'Aaron Fox playing bigger minutes again recently, and Tobias Harris filling the minutes vacuum left behind when Harrell left the starting lineup.
All in all the early slate looks excellent as far as two game slates go. I'm sure we'll have plenty of folks in our members only chatroom leading up to the 3:30 PM lock, and as always you can make one-click optimal lineups by using our lineup optimizer.
Let's go position by position for the main slate.
Late Slate
Point Guard
Trey Burke FD - $3900 DK - $3900
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 26.48 DK - 27.06
Jerryd Bayless FD - $4200 DK - $4400
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 24.93 DK - 25.83
It's value central at point guard for the main slate, with both Burke and Bayless likely looking to sustain big time minutes with their starters missing. Mudiay is out for the near term, and Burke shot 19 times in 33 minutes against the Nets. It's not a phenomenal match-up with the Heat, but this is your classic price and opportunity mismatch. It's the same story with Bayless, really, though the guys who stand in his way are currently listed as questionable. If Rose and Teague are out again Bayless could top 40+ minutes once again. Just make sure he's actually starting again.
Rajon Rondo FD - $6700 DK - $6200
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 38.86 DK - 41.33
Rondo missed a month with his hand injury, and clearly seemed to not be fully recovered against the Timberwolves, but that didn't stop him from playing 37 minutes and going off for 15/6/13/2/1. With Ball and LeBron out the Lakers are desperate for a ball handler, and it's obvious that Walton and the Lakers trust Rondo to fill that void. He's got a terrific match-up with the Suns, whose sloppy rotations have been the main cause of the league's 3rd worst defense this season. Rondo is a must play in cash, and a great high-upside option as well.
Also considered: There are a lot of cheap options - Tyler Johnson, Elie Okobo, and Dennis Smith Jr. You really just have to go with what feels right for you, though I like the above guys best if their situations stay the same.
Shooting Guard
James Harden FD - $13800 DK - $13700
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 70.08 DK - 73.22
Harden will come as no surprise, I imagine. He's coming off the worst game he's had in some time, putting up just 47 fantasy points in the worst possible match-up with Kawhi and the Raptors. The Magic pose no such similar threat defensively, and it looks like we might be coming to the end of the Chris Paul-less run. If CP3 returns you'll probably want to shelve Harden until the price returns to a more reasonable level, but if he's out once again I imagine we'll see the same 80%+ ownership that we've been seeing on a night-in night-out basis.
Devin Booker FD - $8300 DK - $8300
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 41.74 DK - 44.07
So this has been a really, really bad run for the Suns. They are 1-15 in the last 16 games that Booker has played, and have been absolutely drubbed in their last three games. And yet our system thinks that they might be able to keep this one relatively close against the banged-up Lakers. LA will be missing at least three of their best players for this one, and they also play the 2nd highest PACE in the league. Booker plays 36 minutes a game and is a $9,000 player when he's getting regular minutes, so if you think this one stays close Booker looks like an incredible value to me. I'm not usually one to catch a falling knife, but there's some chance that Booker is just a part of winning big tournament lineups today.
Also considered: Tim Hardaway Jr. Don't look now, but he has back to back games with 35+ minutes. He hasn't exactly paid these prices on those minutes, but they Knicks are desperately in need of shot creation with Mudiay out, and Hardaway is certainly willing to be the guy who puts the ball in the air. It's not a great spot with Miami, but THJ is utterly playable here.
Small Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $11700 DK - $12800
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 62.08 DK - 63.27
This is the part where we're blessed that the 6pm game made the early slate. Giannis is fresh off the complete dismantling of the Hornets, where he dropped 34/14/3/3/3 and 71 fantasy points in 37 minutes. We saw that the Bucks are willing to play him 37+ minutes still (their first time since 1/5), and we're now on a five game run of double digit rebounds. It's a tougher match-up with the ever-stout OKC defense, but Giannis is cheap enough on FanDuel, and this game rates to stay close enough, that I think you just take his high floor and you run with it here.
Brandon Ingram FD - $6600 DK - $6200
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 32.16 DK - 32.95
No Kuzma (in all likelihood), no Ball, no LeBron, and a pass-first point guard running things. This has to be Ingram's time, right? Right!? He put up 5x points per dollar against Minnesota, and Rondo seemed to be able to get him some excellent looks. I know I've been saying this for a while, but it sure as hell feels like this match-up with the forgetful Phoenix defense should be his moment to shine. Just another excellent high floor small forward play from where I am sitting.
Keep an eye on the Rudy Gay situation. He left the Pelicans game in the fourth quarter with a banged up ankle and there is no word on his status as of this writing. He could be a great play if he's in there, or he could open up a lot of value if he winds up sitting. I could also be talked into Josh Richardson if Dion Waiters were to sit again. The minutes just seem ironclad and New York is awfully bad at defense.
Power Forward
Kenneth Faried FD - $6400 DK - $5900
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 34 DK - 34.95
The Manimal has been every part of his nickname in the past two games, and this train seems to be just pulling out of the station. Faried tore up Toronto's very capable front court for 21 points and 14 rebounds on a hyper-efficient 72.7% from the field, and his max-energy style is a breath of fresh air for the Rockets. People were wondering if the jump to a $6,200 price tag was too much for the Raptors game, but it looks for all the world like the price increase wasn't enough - I think he'll be a $7k+ player in short order, and I'm certainly a buyer against an Orlando squad that has struggled against opposing bigs ever since they got their Vucevic/Gordon nucleus.
Pascal Siakam FD - $6300 DK - $6500
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 32.45 DK - 32.05
We're flush with higher floor options around this price range today, which is an incredible blessing at what's been a nightmare of a position all season long. Siakam has been as regular as you'd like recently, logging between 28 and 40 fantasy points in each of his last five games, some of which came against excellent competition. His 33+ minute rotation seems entirely secure, and he seems to have found a real home in the Toronto offense. Dallas has been basically a league average match-up for opposing power forwards this season, so you're grabbing Siakam for the solid floor and moving on. Not much of a big tournament play from where I'm sitting, though.
Aaron Gordon FD - $6700 DK - $6600
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 34.41 DK - 35.2
Here's a guy who IS a big tournament play, though. With Houston going small by necessity right now I think it's very fair to wonder how exactly the Rockets intend to deal with both Vuc and Gordon. Chances are they are going to need to throw their best defenders at Vuc just on the basis of his polish and size, which should leave Gordon to work on Faried. I gushed over Faried's DFS potential in his write-up, but the reason this man hasn't been able to stay on the court as an NBA starter is because of his defense. He's prone to gambling, foul trouble, and occasional disinterest, and Gordon could take advantage of all of those. As we saw last game, the plan in close games is for Gordon to reassume his 35+ minute rotation, and if that's the case he's probably 12% too cheap on these current prices. I'm sure if I'm ready for this in cash games, but in big tournaments? Why not?
Center
Look - center is quite simply awful on the main slate. Let's go team by team and you can tell me if you see something I don't.
Oklahoma City vs. Milwaukee: Our system likes Brook Lopez, but you really have to believe these blocks are legit in such a tough match-up. It sees Adams as categorically overpriced at this point.
Orlando vs. Houston: Houston starts a PF at center, and Vuc is overpriced in a bad match-up.
Toronto vs. Dallas: Deandre vs. Toronto? No. Toronto runs two guys that qualify at PF.
Utah vs. Minnesota: Both sides of this game are playable, but you're really running a risk paying up at this position today. Not sure you really have a choice though as we continue down the line.
Washingon vs. San Antonio: Bryant is playing 22 minutes a game now, and San Antonio is playing musical chairs.
Miami vs. New York: Whiteside is playing 22 minutes a game, and the Knicks are openly trolling Enes Kanter like a spurned ex-girlfriend.
Phoenix vs. the Lakers: You might be able to play pin the tail on the donkey with whoever starts for the Lakers, but the Suns are a mess. Dragan Bender is listed as a power forward, and his price has come up anyway. Ayton could be playable if he were back for some reason.
All in all we have a couple of decent slates today - hope to see you in our member's only chatroom to discuss them!
