San Antonio Spurs forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) during the second quarter of an NBA basketball game in Los Angeles Wednesday, April 4, 2018. The Lakers won in overtime 122-112. (AP Photo/Reed Saxon)
Welcome to a nice and short Sunday slate of DFS NBA! With just three games going up against the NFL Conference Championship games, there isn't a lot to sink our teeth into here, but with a few bad defenses and DFS relevant teams we'll certainly do our best. Let's get to it.
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The Pacers are favored by 7.5 in a game with a 219 total.
Things start out on the rougher side, unfortunately. We have two teams on the second half of a back to back, and a pretty wide 7.5 point spread. The Pacers have not been aptly named this season, playing the league's 7th slowest PACE and the 3rd best defense. The Hornets are subsequently bad plays almost down to the man, with the possible exception of Jeremy Lamb. Charlotte hasn't been involved in a lot of close games recently, but Lamb appears to be on a 30+ minute rotation when the game happens to let them. Still, Charlotte's plan on a game to game basis seems to be anybody's guess at this point.
Over on the Indiana side things get a shade sunnier.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 39.19 DK - 39.79
Oladipo has seen a pretty dramatic fall in price after a stretch of blowouts for Indy, but I believe his true rotations lie in the 34-36 minute range. Nothing has really fundamentally changed about this team or Oladipo's ability, but an 8/31 stretch from the field in his last two games (prior to Saturday night's game) has his price lagging. Charlotte, meanwhile, has had a terrible time against opposing shooting guards this season, allowing the 2nd most fantasy points per game to them. Overall Oladipo seems like a sneaky high floor option if such a thing exists.
Another interesting guy here is Myles Turner. If the two post-injury games are to be believed he should be in line for 32ish minutes and 35+ fantasy points. With center looking pretty sketchy tonight he might just be a frog worth kissing.
There is no line on this game as of this writing.
With half of the players in this game currently questionable, it's no wonder that there is no line for this one right now. Lou Williams is currently listed as questionable, but he sure looks doubtful after Doc's adamant comments about his availability following the Warriors game. Danilo Gallinari is listed as doubtful, and Mike Scott started the second half for him against the Dubs. The Clippers also dusted off guys like Jonathan Motley and Jerome Robinson, none of whom are DFS relevant plays. There are some Clippers to love here, though.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 30.55 DK - 30.15
Gilgeous-Alexander played an astonishing 42 minutes against the Warriors, and put up 42 fantasy points in the process. He's essentially the minimum price on FanDuel, and if Williams sits again he will be the highest owned player on the slate. This is your classic price/opportunity mismatch, and it's not one you should be missing out on here.
After Gilgeous-Alexander, things get a little bit murkier. Avery Bradley saw an increase in playing time, but didn't do a whole lot with it. Likewise with Patrick Beverley and Tyrone Wallace. Our system is just not thrilled with the Clips here.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 33.04 DK - 33.06
The Spurs, though. Now we're talking. After DeMar DeRozan's surprise absence against the Timberwolves, Gay's minutes jumped from 22 to 33 and his production followed. The big question for the Spurs (and for the game in general) is DeRozan's status. He's currently listed as probable, and has claimed that he'll be playing "without a doubt," but this is the Spurs and he also sat basically out of nowhere the last time around. I personally think that Gay's minutes are independent of DeRozan's, but it's hard to argue that his value as a DFS play isn't highly dependent upon DeRozan's status. Still, on a small slate I still think Gay is very viable.
Really, our system thinks you can play a whole boatload of Spurs here. DeMar DeRozan is a viable play if he winds up playing. LaMarcus Aldridge is also one of the better plays at a very shallow power forward position. Heck, I could be talked into buying a few Bryn Forbes shares while we are here as well. All in all owning any piece of the Spurs' starting lineup seems totally fine to me here.
The Timberwolves are favored by 10.5 in a game with a 227.5 total.
The riskiest game on the slate, but arguably the one with the highest upside. Let's start with the Suns.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 36.02 DK - 35.94
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 20.75 DK - 20.33
All of this starts with a big fat helping of "if this stays close" disclaimers. But like, these guys are pretty great plays if the game stays close, right? Warren has averaged 5x points per dollar on these prices for the season, and the Wolves without Covington are one of the best match-ups for opposing small forwards that you can get. Bridges has been playing 30 minutes in close games and 27 minutes in not so close games, so his minutes seem totally secure right now. He's been paying 5x points per dollar on the regular and is a perfect punt on FanDuel where you can get away with throwing away your lowest score if the worst should happen.
Outside of these two, you're looking at GPP only plays to me. The combination of high prices on guys like Ayton and Booker and a potentially unfavorable gamescript makes them a stay-away for cash.
Keep an eye on Ayton's status, though. He left the Charlotte game early, but it was predictably out of hand. It may have been precautionary, but if he sits here it would open up a lot of front court minutes. It's also worth noting that Richaun Holmes left Saturday's game, but again it's difficult to say as of this writing how much of this was actually injury related and how much was game script related.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 26.32 DK - 25.57
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 54.19 DK - 55.32
The Timberwolves' starters basically range from excellent plays like Gibson and Towns to acceptable plays in Wiggins and Teague. Phoenix has played a league average pace this season, but has managed to put together the league's 2nd worst defense, making this an excellent spot to stack them up.
My guess is that Gibson will shake out to be an "every lineup" guy, and that the amount of available value will dictate whether we wind up playing Towns or Turner at center.
That's it for this small one! Enjoy the NFL action today, and as always on these small slates - tread cautiously!
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