Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) looks to pass the ball under pressure from Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) during the second half of an NBA basketball game Saturday, April 7, 2018, in Houston. (AP Photo/Michael Wyke)
Following a night of blowouts on Tuesday, we get an eight-game slate of NBA action on Wednesday. Can Harden keep up the historic pace he's on? Will the Pelicans hang with a surging Warriors' squad? There's plenty sink our teeth into.
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Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 50.69 DK - 53.5
The Warriors are playing on the back-to-back after the win over the Nuggets on Tuesday. It’s going to be interesting to see where the big money lands in terms of cash on Wednesday. You have Harden coming at peak prices but also on the run of a lifetime. But then there are a bunch of very solid plays like Curry coming about $3K cheaper. There could be reasons to fade the Beard here. Steph has seen the shooting come and go depending on the game, but is still hitting threes about 44% of the time in the short term and might see another volume game here against a Pelicans’ team playing the sixth-fastest pace in the league.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 28.43 DK - 28.89
Coming the other way, I do think we could see a big Payton game in the near future. As he works his way back to healthy, the minutes should start trending up and over 30. If that’s the case then look for a possible stat-filling line. He won’t score in bunches, but he does rebound the position well and playing with Davis and Randle on the blocks means double-digit assists are in striking distance every night if things break right. I feel like we are buying low and if he can stay on the court against the Warriors’ guards in this matchup then there is real upside on these prices for Payton.
If Shabazz Napier sits again then we could be looking at Spencer Dinwiddie as a value play in the mid-tier.
The same is true for Jalen Brunson if Dennis Smith Jr. sits again. The former saw plenty of minutes last time around off the bench and would in line for similar run as the backup point guard if Smith is out.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 68.71 DK - 72.11
I mean, at this point what new things are there to write? The guy was already on an other-worldly run and then he actually just ended up topping himself last game. He poured in 57 points in 34 minutes against the freaking Memphis Grizzlies on 17-33 shooting from the field (6-15 from three) while also getting to the line 15 times. He’s just existing on some other planet right now and the only real question is what is the max salary you can allocate for his production. FanDuel and DraftKings are really making you question it. This is a good matchup against the Nets and I suspect we still see Harden as relatively high owned because he’s just so difficult to fade right now.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 32.82 DK - 33.6
McCollum needs to score to hit value and that’s what you are looking for in this matchup. Because he’s so scoring dependent the price tends to stay in this range because his fantasy output has a ton of variance on a night-to-night basis. Sometimes you’ll get the 2-14 games like last time out against the Kings, but then he’ll go 12-20 for 30 points like he did against the Hornets on Friday. The Cavs have almost nothing in the way of perimeter defense so this lines up well as a game where CJ can pour in the points. He’s a borderline cash game play because the peripheral stats just aren’t there, but his has almost fallen to the breaking point.
Strongly consider Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala on the second half of the back-to-back against the Pelicans. The former is coming real cheap on DraftKings where the three-pointer is worth the extra half a point.
D'Angelo Russell is coming off a huge game and could see a lot of minutes again, but that's always so tough to trust with the Nets.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 24.04 DK - 25.45
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 19.44 DK - 19.68
With Danuel House not agreeing to a contract and getting sent down to the G-League the Rockets are even more hard up for rotational players. It’s kind of insane the personnel they are working with at this point. But it should mean even more minutes for Green in the short term. He played 30 minutes in the win over the Grizzlies and scored 14 points on 5-13 shooting (4-11 from three).
Meanwhile, Clark could rejoin the starting unit with House getting sent down. He played 26 minutes in the Memphis game and finished with eight points and three rebounds. He’d be a minutes upside play if the Rockets use him more considering how short-handed they are right now.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 58.85 DK - 60.36
If you can’t stomach the price on Harden, and believe me, I get it if we are entering a do not fly zone with the Beard, then Giannis is a solid pivot. He draws a slower matchup against the Grizzlies, but the price somewhat reflects that on this slate. The issue with Giannis isn't the per minute fantasy production, on that end, he's among the best in the game. Rather, the Bucks are often involved in blowing other teams out and just don't need to press their young superstar. The last two games have gotten out of hand, but before that (and the brief injury game) Giannis had a run of three games with 35+ minutes in each and an average of 33 points, 16 rebounds and four assists. Like I said, when he's on the court he's about as good as it gets and we are getting him as something like a discount on Wednesday.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 25.12 DK - 24.08
Well, it sure looks like Kleber is going to stick in the starting lineup. After getting a surprise nod last Wednesday against the Suns, he’s started three games in a row and averaged 30 minutes, 11 points, seven rebounds and two blocks. He’s still coming at affordable prices on both sites. This isn’t an ideal matchup against the Spurs, but at a tougher position, I’m willing to roll with his minutes and short term production. He makes a lower tier cash game play. The Mavericks have switched things up on a dime in the past though so we need to keep an ear out for confirmation on the starting lineup.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 36.1 DK - 35.43
The Warriors are on the back-to-back but weren’t really pressed on Tuesday even in dropping 142 in regulation on the Nuggets. The starters didn’t have to to go nuts and I think Green is in great cash game spot against the Pelicans on Wednesday. They’ll need his defense against the double-big set up of Davis and Randle and we could see 35+ minutes out of the GSW power forward. He needs to contribute all along the box score in order to hit value because the scoring just isn’t there these days. But that’s in play considering the faster Pelicans’ pace.
I don't mind considernig Marcus Morris coming a little cheaper on FanDuel. Power forward is always tough and Morris should see at least low-30's minutes in this matchup. He draws a tougher assignemnt against Serge Ibaka and Pascal Siakam, but the Raptors are susceptible to opposing bigs getting to the glass.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 33.84 DK - 33.48
The Celtics have been slowly bringing Horford along after he sat out an extended period because of injury. But he should be getting closer to max minute at this point with the matchup against the Raptors a perfect opportunity for Big Al to see max run. Toronto has struggled to defend opposing centers this season because they employ so many small ball lineups (Ibaka starting at the 5, etc). I think we are getting Horford at enough of a discount at this point to warrant a cash game play and I’m fairly confident he sees something close to 33+ minutes in the matchup.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 47.55 DK - 48
Drummond is the upside GPP play on DraftKings at only $8700. He's tough to trust in cash games even at these prices prices because are just so all over the place. But in close games, when the Pistons can hang you will see Drummond push towards 36-37 minutes and that's when the possible 20-20 game starts taking shape. Vucevic got him in foul trouble in their last meeting, but Vegas does project this game as at least staying close.
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