Detroit Pistons forward Blake Griffin (23) during the second half of an NBA basketball game against the Memphis Grizzlies Thursday, Feb. 1, 2018, in Detroit. The Pistons defeated the Grizzlies 104-102. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)
We're halfway through the week and just about to the halfway point of the season. Hump day brings along with it a ten game slate of NBA action. Let's take a look at tonight's options with a position by position breakdown of the top plays to consider when building those lineups.
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Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 33.99 DK - 34.76
Now four games returned from a finger injury that led to a significant absence, Elfrid Payton has averaged 24 minutes in three of those, but has shown he has 30+ minutes in him last week against the Nets. He was electric in that game dropping 25 points while dishing out seven assists. I prefer him much more on DraftKings, the FanDuel price is creeping into risky territory, especially in a game that sees the Pelicans as monstrous favorites. Cleveland is allowing eight percent more scoring to opposing point guards this season, and if you think Payton can get back into 30-35 minute territory he's an excellent cash option.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 26.83 DK - 27.6
Ricky Rubio and Dante Exum both stand to be sidelined for at least the next two weeks, opening up tons of opportunity for Raul Neto. With Rubio's early exit on Monday night in Milwaukee, Neto stepped in and saw nearly 30 minutes of court time ending the night with a 10/6/5 line. The sites (I'm looking at you FanDuel) have been quick to correct on the pricing, but there is still plenty of room to grow if Neto is going to see 30+ minutes per night. These are two of the slowest paced teams in the league, and the projection from Vegas certainly supports that, but for the price and opportunity, there's plenty to like about Neto in all formats.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 26.71 DK - 27.35
It's the return of Linsanity. Last night Jeremy Lin stepped into the starters spot for the Hawks in place of Kevin Huerter who was dealing with back pain. Lin saw 34 minuntes scoring 20 points with four boards and nine assists. Coming into last night's contest against Toronto he was averaging 17 points, 5.4 assists, 3.4 rebounds and 1.4 steals in games this season that he sees over 24 minutes in. He's dirt cheap and a play for all formats if he draws the start once again.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 45.49 DK - 45.47
We'll open the two much in the same way we opened the point, with the Pelicans side of the NO/CLE matchup. Jrue Holiday has been electric this season and even in blowouts he manages to produce which is good news given the opening line on this game (NO -14), and the fact that when these two teams met last week, the result was a 35 point blowout. Jrue still managed to drop 22 points in 26 minutes, paying 5X points per dollar (PPD) when all was said and done. Holiday's price has come down in the short term, but with the blowout looming large here, I'm not sure I see much in the way of upside. Still, Im quite comfotable riding with Jrue in cash games.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 27.55 DK - 28.06
On the flip side of this game, we find Alec Burks. Burks has seen a ton of court time, 31.8 minutes per game since Christmas with 40-minute upside in that time, to be exact. With that run, he has produced 5X PPD or better at these prices on a consistent basis. Rodney Hood remains out, so there's no reason to think anything changes here. New Orleans is the clear favorite tonight, but still, rank as a bottom ten defense at the position this season. Sure this game isn't overly appealing from a fantasy perspective, but all of the top tiered guys at the position are in equally bad spots or injured, so let's take the value and run here.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 34.44 DK - 34.39
When the Lakers lost LeBron James and Rajon Rondo we knew somebody was going to have to step in and fill the void, and right on cue here came Josh Hart. Through his last nine contests, Hart has scored in double digits eight times with two double-doubles in his last four games. Most recently he dropped a 14/12/6 line with five steals in 43 minutes against the Mavericks on Monday night, paying over 8.5X PPD at these prices, the fourth time in six games that Hart has eclipsed the 5X mark. Detroit presents a slightly tougher defensive matchup, but we've got two fast-paced teams in a game with a mere 1.5 point spread, so expect the Lakers to provide a healthy helping of Hart once again tonight, and consider him in all formats.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 38.52 DK - 39.24
It isn't just Hart stepping up for the Lakers since losing their veterans. Brandon Ingram has been filling in quite nicely as well, averaging over 35 minutes per game in his last seven outings, with ten straight double digit scoring performances and a 6.6X PPD payoff against the Mavericks on Monday. We just went over this matchup a moment ago, so in this fast paced shootout consider Ingram for all the same reasons you'll consider Hart.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 29.91 DK - 29.29
Early word going into last night's game against the Sixers was that Otto Porter was going to continue running off the bench, but would be without a minutes restriction, meaning he could potentially see 30 minutes in his fourth game back from a knee injury that held him out since Mid December. Well, Philly came out of the gate strong and never looked back, with a 23 point lead at the half and winning by 17. Otto saw just 19 minutes last night, but will once again be in consideration tonight as the Wizards rematch with Philly this time at home. Porter has looked sharp since his return, and last night notwithstanding, the promise of more minutes means to expect even more production. If you think the Wizards can hang in there on their home court, then Porter could be in line for a huge outing. Update: after this writing, it was revealed Porter had X-rays on his thumb. Stay tuned on this news.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 37.62 DK - 37.58
Devin Booker left the Suns game against the Hornets on Sunday with back spasms after just twelve minutes. In his absence, T.J. Warren stepped up and delivered a strong 23 point game with five rebounds and five assists in 37 minutes. Booker was ruled out last night, and if he sits out again tonight, then we have to consider Warren as a tremendous value play at the position. Sunday's game was Warren's fourth 20+ point performance in five games, and the five boards were a season high. This is the one game that we don't have an early line on for obvious reasons, but the Mavericks are a league average matchup at the position. Even if Booker plays, I like Warren's potential, but if Booker is ruled out once again, Warren pushes towards must play territory.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 45.89 DK - 47.83
The word of the day is value. Blake Griffin at just around $9,000 across the industry is the most expensive player we're going to spotlight tonight. All of the top tiered guys are in less than appealing matchups or come packed with serious blowout concern. In tournaments, you can certainly go with the beard, the freak, or the brow, but in cash, balanced is a much more appealing plan of attack this evening. With that let's take a look at Blake Griffin, and why he's our stud tonight. For significantly less than those other guys, Blake is still coming in as one of the top raw point projections in our NBA projection system. He's seen 37 minutes or more in three straight games, scored 34 points in back to back games, and tonight takes on a Lakers team that plays the third fastest game in the NBA while being just a slightly above average defensive matchup in a game that could very well be a shootout. Since the calendar has changed to 2019 Griffin has paid 5X PPD or better in all four games, maxing out at 6.1X PPD against the Jazz. Consider Blake Griffin your big money spend up of the night.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 29.69 DK - 29.84
Once again we're looking for the news on Devin booker here. Josh Jackson benefits greatly from Bookers absence should he be held out once again with back spasms. When Booker is off the court Jackson sees nearly a three percent bump in usage according to NBAWowy.com. When Booker exited the game on Sunday, Jackson picked up 32 minutes and ended the night with a 22/6/4 line. Last night running with the starters, it was another 31 minute night that saw Jackson pay over 6X PPD. Jackson has started nine games this season going into last night averaging 9.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.9 assists per game. If Booker is cleared to play than Jackson loses some appeal, but as long as he continues to run with the starters at these prices, he's a fine play in all formats.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 39.42 DK - 41.86
Domantas Sabonis has started two straight games while Myles Turner deals with a shoulder issue, and if he gets the starting nod once again, then he's a strong consideration even against a very stingy Boston defense. Over his last two games, Sabonis has averaged 32 minutes, 15.5 points, ten boards, and five assists. Vegas likes this game for an appealing 213 total, with Boston (obviously) favored, but not overly so. Sabonis has been a strong play even off the bench this season, so if Turner does return we can still consider him, but he certainly stands to benefit from Turner's absence, should he sit out once again.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 37.39 DK - 38.76
We'll start the five with some more value. DeAndre Jordan's scoring has been all ovre the place lately, but he maintains his strong presence in the glass, as the second overall rebounder in the game this season. He's double-doubled twice in his last three games, and has hit the thirty-minute mark in each of those. The Suns are flat out terrible defending against opposing bigs, allowing 15% more fantasy scoring and the fourth most rebounds to opposing centers this season. The price has come down on Jordan in the short term, and this is an excellent time to get yourself some exposure.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 44.33 DK - 44.28
Moving up the pricing spectrum some, we find Rudy Gobert. Gobert continues to prove to be one of the dominant centers in the game. Monday night he double-doubled in 38 minutes against the Bucks. It was his eighth double-double in his last eleven games, a span during which he has averaged 31.3 minutes per game, and 1.34 fantasy points per minute. The Magic are a league average matchup against opposing centers, and with these two teams each playing at a sluggish pace, I don't see much in the way of upside here, but as a cash game option, Gobert is an excellent play if you have the salary to spend.
If you've got the funds strongly consider spending all the way up at the position for Joel Embiid against the Wizards once again. Honestly, there's a ton of value on this slate, and of the $10K+ players tonight, he's both the cheapest, as well as the overall favorite of our system. He only saw 23 minutes last night, so the back to back is of little concern, and his price has actually come down since last night. If you're spending big, this is where to do it.
Thanks for reading, and as always, good luck out there tonight!! Make sure to hop in the members chat before lock for all the latest breaking news and updates. Cheers!
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View Comments
hey guys, I've been a reader lof your articles for a few years now and I need help understanding something. I only play tournaments and gpps and am not familiar with thq differences in cash games. Most of the players in your article on a daily basis are projected at 5P/$. Is that generally a winner in cash games? For the most part, that will get you a loser in tournaments. Is there that much of a difference between gpp and cash games?
Not a guarantee. Just like 6x doesn't always guarantee a winner in GPP. I would say 270 to 280 usually will get it done.
always pick Lakers for Wed DFS games. I win $$$