James Harden de los Rockets de Houston durante el duelo contra los Wizards de Washington el miércoles 9 de diciembre de 2015. (AP Foto/Nick Wass)
Happy New Year DFSR friends!! While we can stick a fork in the NFL regular season, the NBA keeps rolling on, and our NBA projection system is churning out top-notch daily fantasy picks faster than it takes to break your first resolution. We've got seven games on the schedule for today so before the ball drops let's run through the last picks article of 2018 and see which plays will best help us to start 2019 in the green. On to the picks!!
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Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 48.89 DK - 51.47
I could've gone with Russell Westbrook in this spot, and he is certainly in play, but several factors are playing in Steph's favor. First and foremost the Thunder and Mavericks are facing off for the second time in as many days. Steph and the Warriors are coming in fresh, having had Sunday off following a solid smackdown on the Blazers Saturday night. Also, the matchup is much more favorable. Phoenix plays a slightly slower pace than the Mavericks do, but they make up for it being a bottom ten defense against opposing point guards. Steph is finally hitting the $10K mark for the first time since returning from injury earlier this month, but he's been a steady producer of 5X points per dollar (PPD) at these prices for four of his last six thanks to some solid shooting, and a healthy dose of peripherals. Our system prefers Russ from a raw point perspective, but as PPD plays go, Steph is priced to move as the clear and obvious choice.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 44.16 DK - 44.9
I have to be honest, I don't love giving you two top tired players at a position, but we're on a shorter slate and options are limited. This spot was initially going to go to D.J. Augustin (more on that in just a bit), and Kyrie is really the only other standout at the position from a PPD perspective. This game against the Spurs is a pick'em in Vegas, with a 218 projected total. The Spurs present a league average matchup, and Kyrie has been playing on another level for much of the month. He's double-doubled in four of his last six contests, with an average of 26.3 points per game in that stretch. There should be enough value elsewhere to justify a Kyrie/Steph combo at the point if necessary, but if you are looking for some value, there may be an option to consider. Read on.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 32.92 DK - 31.46
Derrick Rose and Jeff Teague were both ruled out last night, allowing Tyus Jones to step in as the starting point guard for the Timberwolves. Should both be ruled out once again we can certainly consider Jones in the lower-mid pricing tier as a strong value option. With last night's game, Jones now has four starts under his belt this year and has averaged 33 minutes per start and finished last night with 12 points, four boards, five assists, and five steals. It was Jones' best showing yet this season and lends promise to a productive value alternative should he be called upon to step in with the starting five again tonight.
So, what's up with D.J. Augustin ? He tweaked his ankle against the Pistons yesterday and was seen icing it following the game. He is currently sits with a game-time decision tag, and we'll have to monitor this one closely. If he is cleared to play and you trust he's alright, our system loves him against a Charlotte team that runs a league average pace while playing bottom ten defense against opposing point guards.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 64.53 DK - 68.91
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 22.86 DK - 23.44
James Harden continues to be one of the most dominant daily fantasy plays out there. He, along with Anthony Davis, is virtually matchup proof, and can be counted on to go out there and just crush value on a near nightly basis. This game features two of the more sluggish offenses in the NBA, and Vegas is projecting a total of just 200 points here, but Harden still tops our projections as the second highest overall raw point scorer, as well as being one of the top PPD plays at the position. He leads the NBA in points, and three pointers made, and puts in solid peripherals as well, double-doubling twice in his last six games, while coming just a rebound or assist shy in two others. He regularly pays 5X even at these ridiculous prices, and has shown a 6X ceiling twice already this season. Along with Harden, we can look to his teammate Austin Rivers, who will draw the start in place of the ailing Eric Gordon. Rivers, who has put together double-digit scoring efforts while seeing over 30 minutes in each of his last four games played, will likely continue to see solid opportunity running with the starters. When spending top dollar for Harden, the chance to lock in Rivers as well for near minimum pricing is a welcome opportunity.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 31.4 DK - 31.6
Outside of the Houston duo, Andrew Wiggins is coming in as a very appealing play. Like Jones above, Wiggins will benefit greatly if Rose and Teague remain out. Per NBAWowy.com Wiggins sees his usage jump 6% with both Teague and Rose off the court, and though he underwhelmed last night in Miami, the matchup tonight against the Pelicans is much more favorable for the Minnesota shooting guard. Consider Wiggins if Rose and Taeague suit up, but strongly consider him if they ride the pine for another night.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 34.89 DK - 33.68
As a Sixers fan, I was sad to see Robert Covington go, but I am glad to see him doing well with his new surroundings in Minnesota. In just his last seven games RoCo has seen over thirty minutes of run six times including 44 minutes Friday night against the Hawks, a game that saw him drop a season-high 28 points. He sees a fantastic matchup tonight against the Pelicans, who not only allow the third most fantasy points to opposing threes but are a top ten team in defensive stats allowed. RoCo has averaged two steals, and 1.4 blocks per game over his last five outings, so this is great news for him. Vegas has yet to drop a line on this game, but I'd expect a high scoring shootout from two of the faster-paced teams in the game. The price is holding steady on Covington, and he's shown he has what it takes to get us to 5X territory with ease.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 20.03 DK - 21.32
Gerald Green has seen his minutes off the bench uptick ever since Chris Paul went out with a hamstring injury earlier in the month. Now with Eric Gordon sidelined, Austin Rivers will draw the start, but look for Green to pick up even more time in the second unit. Over his last five games Green has averaged 23.8 minutes and paid as much as 5.8X PPD. Consider Green an excellent plahy in all formats, helping to provide huge salary relief with a high floor and potential for a 7X ceiling.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 25.82 DK - 25.36
If you're looking for value, then look no further than DeAndre Bembry. The Hawks will be without Kent Bazemore who injured his ankle on Saturday and will likely be out for at least two weeks. This leaves about 30 minutes per game up for grabs. Bembry, who has posted over 6X PPD in his last two appearances off the bench will likely see an even larger role in Bazemore's absence. As value options at the three go, this choice is clear, and Bembry is in play in all formats.
I've given you plenty of ways to spend up already, and more are to come, but it goes without saying, another top-tier play to consider is Kevin Durant. He sees unlimited run, has posted two double-doubles and a triple-double in his last five games and draws a slightly below average defensive matchup against the Suns tonight.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 67.09 DK - 66.43
I recommended Anthony Davis against Dallas on Friday, and if you took that advice, you were rewarded with a 6.7X PPD performance. Sure, the next night he followed it up with a 3.8X showing, but that was against a tough Houston defense on the tail end of a back to back. Tonight Davis will take on the Timberwolves who are ranked almost identically to the Mavericks. While I'm not going to sit here and guarantee another 6X+ outing, our projection system is feeling confident in the brow as a strong 5X PPD cash option, who to nobody's surprise is projecting for the top raw point total of the evening. AD is riding a streak of eight games with a double-double, and while Nikola Mirotic remains out, expect him to continue to ball out as the top fantasy scorer in the NBA, and with that, be in play in all formats every time he takes the court.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 26.45 DK - 25.1
Wes Matthews doesn't seem quite ready to return to action just yet. He went from Doubtful to questionable yesterday, but eventually was ruled out once again missing his second straight game, and is currently questionable for tonight. Maybe they give him the green light, but I'd be surprised. That said, if Max Kleber gets another start for the Mavericks, then he once again becomes a solid value option at the four. Sure Oklahoma City can be a nightmare defensively to roster against, but Max is still ridiculously cheap on DraftKings, and even on FanDuel where the price is up just a bit, if he stinks up the place like he did last night we can drop him.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 31.66 DK - 30.22
Thad Young has been one of the hottest players in the NBA in recent weeks. Young has five 20+ point games this season, and all five have come in December. Most recently last Wednesday against this same Hawks team. The spread suggests a blowout is a distinct possibility, but Atlanta plays so fast, and so bad, Young may be able to hit 5X PPD before it even reaches that point. If the Hawks can find a way to keep it competitive, then there's no telling how high the ceiling goes. Keep Thad Young in mind in all formats.
Consider Aron Gordon. The price is on the rise, but he's coming off of a 34-minute outing against the Pistons that saw him notch his fourth double-double of the month, and he sees a favorable matchup against a below average Charlotte defense.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 46.34 DK - 47.75
Nikola Vucevic has finally hit the $10K club on FanDuel, (and isn't far off on DraftKings), and I'm not sure how I feel about that. He's shown he belongs there, as he demonstrated against the Raptors on Friday, paying 7.4X PPD. I question how much trust we can put in the guy at these prices though. Ultimately I think it comes down to the matchup, and today Vuc finds himself against the Hawks, who are about as mediocre as can be as matchups for opposing big men go. Vuc has been playing some strong ball down the stretch, double-doubling in four of his last five, while dropping 22 points or better in three straight. Given the matchup, I'm not sure I see much in the way of upside here, but with just seven games to choose from today as a cash game play, Vucevic is promising to be one of the more favorable options.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 35.12 DK - 35.63
The price on Adams is on the way down. Pair that with a poor showing yesterday against the Mavericks and we have ourselves a sneaky play at the five that could pay off when all is said an done. Adams failed to score double-digit points for the first time all month in the first half of this back to back with Dallas. Despite the scoring woes, Adams managed to dominate once again in the glass while picking up a pair of steals along the way. Dallas is a league average matchup defensively while playing at a slightly above average pace. If Adams can get back on track with his scoring, while maintaining the defensive presence, he'll have little trouble paying 5X on these prices.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 24.88 DK - 25.11
Dwayne Dedmon was held out on Saturday for the Hawks game against the Cavaliers and currently sits with a questionable tag for today's tilt with the Pacers. Look for Alex Len to draw another start, and if Dedmon remains on the shelf, Len could see a significant bump in his usage. Len only saw 23 minutes against the Cavs in his first start back after missing two games himself with a back issue. He ended the night with a 12/4/1/1 line. Len was averaging 25 minutes before those two missed games and could see the opportunity to push past the thirty-minute mark with Dedmon out of commission. With so many studs to pay up for at other positions, consider Len as a way to get out of the five cheap and easy.
Thanks for reading and good luck out there tonight. Make sure to pop into the members chat throughout the day for all the latest breaking news. Cheers!
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