Oklahoma City Thunder's Russell Westbrook dribbles the ball during the first half of an NBA basketball game against the Los Angeles Lakers, Wednesday, Jan. 3, 2018, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
It is the last Friday night of 2018, and as we draw closer to putting another year into the history books, our NBA projection system keeps on pumping out top-notch picks for all of your DFS purposes. Tonight gives us a ten game slate of action with plenty of information to break down as we pour through all of the plays looking for the best of the best. With no shortage of big-name studs or reasonable value plays to consider let's break this thing down, shall we?
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Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 60.52 DK - 62.21
We'll start things off with a guy you may have heard of before. Russell Westbrook currently leads the NBA in assists per game, steals per game, and the number of times leading off an NBA DFS picks article such as this over the past several seasons. The man remains an absolute stud, and though the scoring is down, the price isn't as through the roof as it has been at this point in the season in years past. Plus, we still get all of the great peripherals that come with a Russell Westbrook pick. Sure, he's coming off a bit of a Christmas clunker which saw him give up the rock six times while failing to hit double digits in boards and dimes, but how often do games like that come along for Russ? That's right, not very. Heading into Phoenix for a tilt with the Suns who have been quite generous to opposing point guards this season, look for Russ to put together one of his patented dominating performances and easily crush value. With the LeBron already ruled out, Westy is one of just a handful of ways to spend up in the top tier on this slate, and one of the best ways to do so.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 34.89 DK - 35.44
Kyle Lowry's back will hold him out of yet another contest which means it's once again time to throw some consideration Fred VanVleet's way. VanVleet has made nine starts for Toronto already this season and has paid 5X points per dollar (PPD) in all but two of those. The matchup against Orlando leaves a bit to be desired. They play a sluggish pace and have been quite stingy defensively in the back this season, but VanVleet is priced to move and will not need much to get us right where we need to be. In his previous nine starts this year VanVleet has averaged 13.4 points and 5.5 dimes in 34 minutes of run time. He should see little trouble hitting value tonight and is a play I'll be looking at in all formats.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 30.4 DK - 31.48
If you're feeling equal parts adventurous, and sneaky, then might I recommend J.J. Barea. J.J. has been seeing his minutes off the bench creep up a bit in the short term, averaging 23 minutes per game over his last five, hitting as high as 27 twice in that time. In those two games, Barea has crushed value at these prices, and the Mavs see a rather enticing matchup tonight against a terrible New Orleans backcourt. The Pelicans are surrendering the fifth most fantasy points to the position this season, and this game features one of the highest projected totals of the evening. Should Barea's minutes get clipped, this one could end up biting us in the tail, but if he gets solid run off the bench then look to Barea as a fantastically sneaky GPP option.
The Lakers are the only team playing on the tail end of a back to back this evening. That said, they are still running without Rondo and LeBron, so Lonzo Ball should see plenty of run leading the backcourt in tonight's L.A. showdown and warrants consideration at the point, especially on DraftKings.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 28.01 DK - 27.87
As I just mentioned, the Lakers face off with the Clippers tonight in a battle for L.A. supremacy. They also, will run without two key pieces yet again. Last night, Josh Hart drew the start at the three in place of LeBron James. With that being the Lakers first game of the season without James, the big question was how exactly would the Lakers use Hart, compared to prior starts where he shared court time with the King. The answer was a 10/4/3/2/3 line in 32 minutes good for over 8X PPD. Add to the mix that Hart is priced entirely too cheap for his expected production right now, and he can be considered in all formats until the price does some serious correcting. At near minimum cost around the industry, it's hard to go wrong here.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 33.76 DK - 34.88
Dennis Schroder is another bench player catching the metaphorical eye of our NBA projection system. Even when coming in with the second team Schroder sees a solid amount of court time, averaging nearly 28 minutes over his last five games, including 34 minutes on Christmas day against the Rockets in a game that saw him drop double-digit points for the fourth straight time, while also picking up some strong peripheral action. He ended the night with a 10/5/6/1/1 line and paid over 5X PPD. If he can continue putting together stat lines of that caliber while keeping the turnovers in check, then Schroder is an excellent value option at the position that can we can utilize in all formats.
Consider Andrew Wiggins. The price is on the downswing after a lackluster showing in Chicago. A chance at redemption comes tonight in the form of a Hawks team that plays fast and plays bad. It's a terrific spot and Wiggins should shine.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 35.16 DK - 35.59
Normally, we wouldn't shine such a big light on a team that played just last night, but when that team is without LeBron James, well, it's kind of hard to avoid. Someone has to step in and make things happen and will do so for a fraction of the King's price. Brandon Ingram falls right into play for just that reason. He is still working his way back from an ankle sprain that sidelined him through much of the month. Through his first four games back, he's been finding the net, but the peripherals have been lacking. With James out of commission, the Lakers will need to see more from the third-year forward, and we know he has what it takes to deliver. The price has shot up nearly $1000 in the short time since his return, and I think it lowers the ceiling, but as a cash game play, it feels safe to say we can rely on Ingram to help get us into the green.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 29.74 DK - 29.93
There aren't many appealing ways to spend up at the three tonight, and there's no need to when we've got some strong options in the mid-lower pricing tier. Justise Winslow has filled in quite nicely in the interim for the Heat since they lost Goran Dragic earlier this month, and likely will be without him for some time to come. Since Dragic has been out Winslow has started six games for Miami and averaged 24 minutes, 13 points, and 3.8 assists per start. His shooting is streaky which is the one thing that gives me pause. The Cavs aren't exactly a defense to fear, however, and Winslow has put together back to back 20+ point outings against Toronto and Orlando, both of whom rank better than Cleveland in fantasy points per game allowed. With the price on the rise, there's little upside here unless Winslow completely balls out, but in cash games, we should have little concern asking for 5X PPD from Winslow tonight.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 22.69 DK - 23.4
Darius Miller has been drawing the start lately over Solomon Hill while Nikola Mirotic remains out of commission. Miller has averaged 33 minutes through his three starts, with 11.3 points, 2.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists. I'm not expecting much from Miller, but he has posted 5.7X PPD or better in four of his last six games. Pair that with the fact that he is dirt cheap, and I'm fine rolling Miller in all formats.
Paul George suffered a quad contusion against Houston on Tuesday and is currently listed as a game-time decision. If he is cleared to play, he's a fantastic way to spend up at the position with the third highest raw projected point total of the day.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 65.34 DK - 64.47
Sometimes, the hardest part of writing up these picks isn't trying to justify the obscure player who finds himself in the right matchup, or the odd one-off the system seems to really like. No, it's finding something to tell you about a stud like Anthony Davis that you don't already know. If you google "obscure Anthony Davis facts" you'll learn he has an older sister named Iesha and a twin named Antoinette. Maybe that's something you didn't know. For DFS purposes though, what can I say? Davis is carrying a thin Pelicans team on his back. Nikola Mirotic remains out, and in the past seven games, AD has scored at least 26 and as much as 44 points per game while averaging 32 minutes per game with a double-double in each of his last six. Vegas likes this game for one of the highest scoring affairs of the evening, and the NBA's leading fantasy scorer by a mile will surely not disappoint. There's plenty of value to be had out there tonight, so spending up shouldn't be a challenge. Expect Davis to be very highly owned in cash games tonight, and be sure to have some of that exposure for yourself.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 30.42 DK - 29.78
After AD power forward is a veritable wasteland, so our best plan of action is to try and get out on the cheap. I've got two strong options that allow us to do just that coming in very high in the early runs of our projection system. First up we have Jerami Grant. Grant has proven to be an exciting play at the four for the Thunder this season and has turned things up in recent weeks. In his last seven games, Grant is averaging 34 minutes, 15.7 points, and 4.7 boards per game. In that time he has paid 5.5X PPD or better three times, maxing out at 6.9X on Christmas day in Houston. He finished a rebound shy of a double-double in that game, and if he can maintain that strong presence in the glass, it will be just a matter of time before the price on Grant begins to rise.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 22.42 DK - 21.4
The Mavericks chose to start Mad Max against the Pelicans on Wednesday and it certainly paid off. Kleber posted a 10/3/0/6/0 line in 24 minutes. If he draws a second start against the Mavericks in the second game of this home and away set in New Orleans, consider him a strong play with minimal salary commitment required.
Obviously strongly consider Kyle Kuzma coming off a big-minute, big usage game against the Kings on Thursday. He put up 24 shots and finished with 33 points and nine rebounds in 40 minutes.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 47.59 DK - 48.53
Center is just busting at the seams tonight with intriguing plays. Looking over the initial run of the system several names are showing up at the top of both the raw point and point per dollar projections. I'm going to highlight my three favorites here while adding in three alternatives you may also want to consider utilizing. We'll begin with Minnesota Timberwolves big man Karl Anthony Towns. The Wolves have a wonderful matchup tonight against the Atlanta Hawks, who not only run the fastest pace in the league but are a bottom ten defense for DFS purposes at the five. After a three-game skid, Towns found himself back in double-double territory once again on Wednesday with 20 points and 20 boards against the Bulls. This one has the potential to get out of hand, but even if he finds his minutes clipped KAT has shown in the past that he can make big things happen in limited time. If you have the additional funds to spend up at the five, Towns is a great way to go.
If you want to go a little cheaper, especially on DraftKings where $1400 separates the two, consider Nikola Vucevic as an alternative. Both Vuc and KAT are putting up similar raw point projections, but the savings on DraftKings pushes Vucevic ahead by a mile from a PPD perspective on DK.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 38.17 DK - 38.23
Steven Adams put together a very merry Christmas performance against the Rockets, ending the night with 17 points, seven rebounds, and four assists. It was a nice bounce-back from his struggles against the Wolves two days prior, a game in which he only saw 27 minutes of action. Adams should see his full run tonight against the Suns, a bottom feeder defense against opposing fives, presenting him with a chance to post his fifth double-double in eight games, a stretch that has seen him flash 7X upside twice already. Without breaking the bank, Adams has been excellent down the stretch and is a high floor high ceiling play which draws appeal in all formats.
Hassan Whiteside was limited in practice yesterday and currently sits with a probable tag. If he is cleared to play, consider him a viable alternative to Adams in a similar price range. If he is sidelined then Bam Adebayo and Kelly Olynyk will become appealing alternatives at PF on FanDuel, and PF or C on DraftKings.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 33.11 DK - 33.85
Going cheap at the position we're going to take a look at Dwayne Dedmon of the Hawks. Miles Plumlee remains out, and Alex Len has already been ruled out for a second straight contest tonight leaving the door wide open for Dedmon up front for Atlanta. That first game with Len sidelined saw Double D run a season-high 37 minutes and paying off 7X PPD with 18 points, 15 rebounds, three assists, with a block and two steals thrown in for good measure. It's no secret that Towns is far from a defensive powerhouse, and Minnesota as a whole rank as a middle of the pack defense against opposing big men. Expect to see Dedmon out there for most of the night yet again, and count on a big return when all is said and done.
If JaVale McGee's illness holds him out once again tonight, consider Ivica Zubac against the Clippers as a similarly priced alternative. He didn't come close to duplicating his Christmas day performance last night in Sacramento, but after just 20 minutes he should be well rested for tonight's game if called upon to start again.
Thanks for reading and best of luck out there tonight. Be sure to pop into the chat as we draw closer to that 7 PM lock time for all of the latest breaking news. Cheers!
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