Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes watches during the first half of an NFL football game against the Los Angeles Chargers Sunday, Sept. 9, 2018, in Carson, Calif. (AP Photo/Kelvin Kuo)
Well, it's the craziest week of the DFS season, ladies and gentlemen! Every single team in the NFL is playing on the main slate, and roughly 15 teams playing meaningful football this week, it's going to be tough to make heads or tails of exactly where we want to land. Week 17 is a unique beast in the world of daily fantasy sports. We can get unexpected value at the last minute, lose a full half of football from a star for seemingly no reason, and general randomness that can drive a sane man crazy. But this is why we play DFS, right? While those season long only cowards have nothing at stake, we'll be out here in the trenches getting paid for doing the work. Let's get on it.
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Opponent OAK
Proj Points FD - 26.98 DK - 28.42
It's always bittersweet writing up Mahomes, mostly because I went out of my way to go on a 6 minute diatribe about how he was very likely just another young quarterback with a good couple of games. Welp, it hasn't played out like that, exactly. Going into the final game of the season Mahomes has outscored the second highest scoring fantasy QB in the league by 72 points, or nearly five fantasy points per game. Good lord. The DFS sites often have a hard time figuring out how to price these outlier guys, and I get it. Any pricing/projection algorithm is going to want to look at a guy like Mahomes and say: "Outlier! No one can maintain this pace!" Except Mahomes has. And now he'll bring the league's best passing attack against arguably the league's worst passing defense, and inarguably one of the league's 5 worst passing defenses. Mahomes dumpstered them for 33 fantasy points in their last meeting, and now the Chiefs are in a game of the very highest stakes. While they are locked into the playoffs, everything from home field advantage throughout the playoffs to eking out a wildcard birth is in play here. They control their own destiny here, and it's very hard to imagine them taking the foot off the passing game gas, particularly given how the running game has looked since Kareem Hunt's unfortunate disappearance. Mahomes is expensive, yes, but sometimes nice things cost ya.
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 23.37 DK - 23.65
In week 17, I'm going to do my best to go players who are playing for everything. Mahomes is the highest scoring QB in the league, yes, but it might surprise you to know that Big Ben has been comfortably in the #2 slot. Okay, he has exactly 2 fantasy points more than Matt Ryan. But that's still pretty good! The Steelers are going to have to go all out here, as they will make the playoffs if they win and the Ravens lose. Like Mahomes, we have one example of Roethlisberger crushing the Bengals earlier this season. He threw for an easy 369 yards on 46 passing attempts, and the Bengals' lack of corner depth showed as JuJu and Brown combined for 216 receiving yards. The Bengals have been just as bad against the pass as the Raiders have this year, and I think getting Conner back forces them to respect the run. This play isn't without risk, though. If the Ravens get up by a mile against the Browns, the Steelers will effectively know they are eliminated, and since they don't control their own destiny you could see a token sitting of Roethlisberger in the 4th quarter. Still, if I'm dreaming on big performances for big tournaments Big Ben has to be in the conversation. I would rather have Mahomes for cash games, but if I just couldn't make the money work Roethlisberger would be a reasonable consolation prize.
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 21.43 DK - 21.54
If you're in the mood for a bargain, you could gamble on guys like Jameis Winston, but I think I prefer Jared Goff. Like the Chiefs, the Rams control their own destiny here. If they win (or Chicago loses), they have a first round bye. They effectively have two cracks at a first round playoff game, and given that this one is against the non-playoff-caliber San Francisco 49ers you have to think that the Rams will do whatever they can to lock up their divisional round playoff spot early. Goff is a tricky one to evaluate for me. On one hand, Todd Gurley's potential absence should mean big things for Goff. He's got an excellent short yardage receiver in Robert Woods, and the threat of going deep to Cooks means the Niners can't just sit on underneath routes. All that should have been true last week against the Cardinals, too, except that CJ Anderson cut them ear to ear and Goff only needed to attempt 24 passes. The Rams are favored by 10, and they could easily control this one as well. Still, in the final week of the season I just want to be sure my guys are playing, and there are scenarios where Goff goes off here.
Other guys to consider:
I like Winston for big tournaments. All of the arguments I made about Goff and Mahomes also hold true for Lamar Jackson, and you have to believe that the Ravens will totally unleash him in the running game given that they are playing a win-and-in against the Browns.
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 21.55 DK - 23.87
It sure seems like the Giants’ modus operandi down the stretch is to make sure Barkley wins the Offensive Rookie of the Year. There’s no other explanation for running their top draft pick into the ground in nothing more than meaningless games over the last few weeks. It’s borderline malpractice that he’s touched the ball 120 times (86 carries, 34 targets) since Week 12 in games the Giants had no real business bothering to compete. But regardless, New York’s lack of understanding about mileage on a running back is our gain in a week that seems so shaky. The Giants are actually -6 home favorites against the Cowboys who’ve locked up the playoffs and, like the Giants, have nothing to play for. Vegas doesn’t see the Dallas starters hanging around in this game and Barkley could have a chance to pile on touches. He’s coming off a 21 carry, 5 reception game against the Colts in Week 16 and I wouldn’t be shocked to see something similar in usage with the Giants trying to pile up the stat line one last time before the end of the season.
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 16 DK - 18.27
With Aaron Jones out, the Packers went with a full-on RB1/bellcow approach with Williams who played on 95% of the offensive snaps and finished with 15 carries and 9 targets. He had 156 yards from scrimmage and scored a rushing touchdown. Even though the Packers are playing for nothing more than pride, they are -8.5 home favorites against the Lions. Though Detroit has been decent against the run this season (12th in DVOA) they’ve been so bad against the pass that the defense actually now ranks dead last in the league. I’ll take the presumed volume here with Williams who should log another big usage game against a defense that’s clearly mailed it in to end the season.
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 13.04 DK - 14.13
Matt Breida is done for the season and the 49ers will likely turn the majority of their running back usage back over to Wilson. We’ve seen the plan before when Breida sat out Week 14 against the Broncos. In that game, Wilson carried the ball 23 times for 90 yards. San Francisco doesn’t have anything to play for here against the Rams, but they’ve been feisty down the stretch, beating both Denver and Seattle while playing Chicago close in Week 16. Even though the 49ers are big underdogs here, I think Wilson still sees plenty of usage considering how San Fran has attacked previous games. They don’t seem to have any interest in a full-on tank and that alone makes them a safer DFS proposition than most teams.
The two big pieces of news we’re waiting on right now surround the Rams and Chiefs. Both teams have something to play for this week and both are heavy favorites. Last week we saw C.J. Anderson run wild as an off-the-street backup to Todd Gurley. Gurley’s status is crucial in knowing how to attach this slate. We will update this line with injury news. If Gurley were to sit, Anderson would instantly become one of the slate’s best plays.
The same can be said for the Spencer Ware/ Damien Williams situation in Kansas City. They are also playing in a meaningful game and Williams would have tremendous value if Ware sat out again. We’ll monitor these two teams for the remainder of the week.
Opponent OAK
Proj Points FD - 20.2 DK - 23.3
A blast from the past! The only other time I wrote Hill up this season was in this exact match-up. Here's what I wrote:
There are a lot of interesting options if you elect to pay up at wide receiver, but I'm the highest on Hill. The Chiefs' explosive playmaker has seen 24 targets in his last two weeks, and has turned those into 17 catches for 332 yards and 4 touchdowns. Yikes. He's also walking into his best match-up of the season, and while the Chiefs are the biggest favorites on the slate by a mile, double digit targets seem like something of a sure thing. Still, I wonder if the potential blowout gives him a little more opportunity risk than you want at this price point given that you can get far safer running backs at the same price."
Well, Hill was a chalk option at wide receiver, and promptly went out there and caught 1 ball on 6 targets for 13 yards. Then, in a significantly tougher match-up against Baltimore he reeled in 139 yards on 14 targets. What the Hell, right? Honestly, the Chiefs' skill players are always a little nerve wracking because they are just not short on options. Mahomoes can run, they can give it to the running back of the day, Kelce exists, and Mahomes is good enough that he doesn't need to rely on any particular wide receiver. Still, I have to think that in the most important game of the season they will start the day by trying to give it to their best skill position player, and I'm ready to roll it back on Hill at an even lower price than we paid for him last time around. On DraftKings, though, he's probably just too costly.
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 15.43 DK - 19.05
The Pats are in a similar position to the Rams, and it's hard to imagine them not going after the Jets' throat given that they can lock up a first round bye if they close this out. Edelman has double digit targets in each of his last three games, and turned those into 246 yards and 2 touchdowns. He had 16.4 fantasy points against the Jets in their earlier meeting this season, and that was when Josh Gordon was still in the NFL. The Jets are basically a league average match-up here, but Edelman should be a central part of the Patriots enforcing their will here.
Opponent KC
Proj Points FD - 12.86 DK - 15.54
While I try to stick to the "play guys in games that matter" plan for week 17, I'm occasionally willing to make exceptions for guys whose teams have been eliminated for so long that they really have no reason to sit anybody anyway. The Raiders fall squarely in that camp. In fact, you can imagine a scenario where the Raiders are hanging in there and go all out to try and spite their division rivals. And honestly, we don't even need to worry about all that for Nelson. He's announced that he has planned to stay with the Raiders for next season, and he's experiencing something of a renaissance with Derek Carr right now. He's averaged 9 targets in the last four weeks, and his price has stayed depressed on account of him not finding the end zone during that stretch. He is still every bit the good red zone target that he was when he was in Green Bay, though, and given Carr's comfort with him in short yardage situations you have to think that a touchdown or two is coming if these two stick together. KC has ranked in the bottom half of the league in terms of passing defense this season themselves, and Nelson is just the kind of wide receiver punt that lets you pay up at more difficult positions like QB this week.
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 11.27 DK - 13.4
We actually have a few interesting cheap punts to pick from this week. Deandre Carter went out and had a nice little "revenge game" against the Eagles last week, and Houston is another team that could find itself in a number of different spots going into the playoffs. There are convoluted scenarios where the Texans get home field advantage throughout the entire playoffs, but if they win and the Pats lose they can still lock up a first round bye. Their wide receiver situation is precarious at the moment, with the newly acquired Demaryius Thomas down for the count and Keke Coutee still limited in practice. There's a chance that Coutee comes back for this one, but given that he's missed 4 straight weeks and is still not looking good you have to think that he'll at least be somewhat limited. Carter is just the type of play you're looking for on DraftKings, where he should combine 7+ targets with essentially the minimum salary. I think I prefer Nelson's track record on FanDuel, but I'd honestly be fine playing both.
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 20.17 DK - 24.36
Full disclaimer, I am not putting Adams forward with the same level of confidence that I am for guys in games that matter. But the Packers were coming off of being freshly eliminated last week, and Adams went out there and was targeted an astonishing 18 times in a win over the Jets. Adams has only dipped below 15 fantasy points a single time since September, and has quietly turned in the most consistent season of any of the big ticket wide receivers. I'm not sure he gets there for us on FanDuel, but on DraftKings the PPR is awfully enticing. He caught 9 balls on 12 targets for 140 yards and a touchdown in the Packers' prior meeting with the Lions this season, and he should be in line for another big week here. The looming question will be: do the Packers have enough sense to just sit him if this game gets out of hand? Based on their pride-based run last week, I think he stays out there. You have to think this being a home game in Green Bay matters as well. I wouldn't be surprised to see Adams being a chalk option on DraftKings once again.
Other tolerable cash game options: I like a lot of the wide receivers in games that matter. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Brandon Cooks/Robert Woods, Deandre Hopkins - all of these guys seem pretty similar to me.
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 15.52 DK - 18.61
The Eagles should at least start this game with a no holds barred approach and that could mean a lot of Ertz early and often. He had a ridiculous 16 targets last week and finished with 12 catches for 110 yards and two touchdowns. On the season, Ertz leads all tight ends in targets (152) and receptions (113). He’s third in both yards and touchdowns. Now the question is whether you can pay top dollar for this kind of tight end production. It’s close. The Eagles have something to play for, which helps. But they also have been known to spread the ball around when the opportunity arises. I get why our system likes him at these prices, but it’s also a lot to pay. On a week full of question marks, it likely makes sense to just pay for the known commodity.
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 14.91 DK - 17.58
Come hell or high water, this guy sees targets. It doesn’t matter that the 49ers have had basically nothing to play for over the last many weeks. Kittle just gets the looks, averaging 10.1 targets per game over the last six weeks. That’s the best rate among tight ends in that span and Kittle is only running behind the leaders in terms of touchdowns which is to be expected playing on a team like the 49ers. Because San Fran has tried to hang tough down the stretch I’m not turned off to playing Kittle here even as a big underdog to the Rams. I think San Fran tries to keep it close and will once again feed Kittle on the offensive end.
Opponent NE
Proj Points FD - 8.78 DK - 10.07
Herndon has six or more targets in three of the last five games which is about all you can ask for from a tight end at his DraftKings’ price. I’m not as interested in the FanDuel salary, but in the full PPR format you might as well take another flyer on Herndon here. The Jets are big underdogs to the Pats this week, but they’ve shown a propensity to stay in these late season games and Herndon should see enough looks to make the DraftKings price palatable.
The one exception to the "play teams in games that matter", for sure. I like the Buffalo Bills against the Dolphins over on FanDuel. They are priced in the middle of the pack, but they are a legitimately good defense against a fairly terrible offense. I don't see a real need to go full-on speculative this week, and they are a nice hedge.
On DraftKings, the Green Bay Packers are essentially minimum priced against a Lions team that has officially given up. Stafford and the Lions haven't mustered more than 17 points in a game since November 18th, when they managed 19 against the Panthers. In cold weather against an awkwardly feisty Green Bay team you'd have to think they'll just have their eyes on the off season and the golf course.
You could also see people grab the Philadelphia Eagles in a nice match-up against what's left of the Washington Redksins, or even people breaking out the Vikings against the Bears, given their price point.
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