Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) looks to pass the ball under pressure from Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) during the second half of an NBA basketball game Saturday, April 7, 2018, in Houston. (AP Photo/Michael Wyke)
Twas the night before Christmas and all through the house, not a creature was stirring except the guy getting you ready for a five-game slate of NBA action on FanDuel and DraftKings. So throw away that kerchief, put away the cap and get ready to grind away on some Christmas Day basketball action.
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DFSR Projected Score:Bucks: 122.93 - Knicks: 111.4
Vegas Projected Score: Bucks: 119 - Knicks: 109
DFSR Projected Total: 234.33
Vegas Over/Under: 228
This game comes in as the biggest blowout risk on the slate with the Bucks -10 road favorites against a much worse Knicks’ squad. The biggest issue in this game will be the reliability around minutes from both teams. On the Milwaukee side, they will play tighter rotations in close games, but are happy to cede playing time late to the bench if the game is out of hand. Then there are the Knicks who will buzz off starter minutes with the best (worst) of them. It makes for plenty of DFS risk on both sides of this matchup.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 60.52 DK - 61.8
We do have Giannis as the highest-projected play on this slate and if you think he sees a full run of minutes (35+) then he has tremendous upside. He’s averaging 26 points, 13 rebounds and six assists on the season along with more than a block and steal each. The Knicks are easily the worst defensive team (and real team) on this Christmas slate and rank second to last in defensive efficiency in the league. Giannis has dominated them this season in their two meetings, averaging 32 points, 15 rebounds and five assists (one of the games was an overtime affair). The only real question about rostering the Greek Freak is whether you can afford him on a slate of games which might not feature all that much in the way of punt plays.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 37 DK - 38.45
Though this is very much Giannis’s team, there’s still something to be said for playing Middleton on this Christmas slate. He’s played 33+ minutes in each of the Bucks’ last four games, even with some of them getting out of hand late. He still provides the second-highest usage rate on the team (24%) and has bombed 20 threes over the last two. I really like the DraftKings price in the middle tier and think there’s even some upside if the three-ball is falling against a weak Knicks’ squad.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 32.79 DK - 33.52
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 30.39 DK - 32.87
All of the Knicks’ starters are in play if they can keep the game close, so I should probably start there. This is a touch matchup against the fourth-best defensive team in the league, but that’s the theme of the day. Five of the ten best defenses in the league play on Christmas so you are going to run into tough matchups somewhere. Mudiay has played 30 or more minutes in each of the last six games and scored more than 30 points in three of those. He’s also averaging six assists per game over that stretch. The real key is whether he can find the basket and the Bucks are allowing more than league average scoring to opposing point guards.
Kanter is the ultimate boom or bust play. The Bucks are around average at defending opposing centers (they are strongest defending the wings with all of their length) and Kanter might not get played completely off the floor because of Brook Lopez hanging around. Kanter sees the minutes comes and go like almost no other, but he’s double-doubled in three of his last six games. The variable performances keep the price in check and he’s one of the middle tier plays with huge upside if things break right.
Also consider Eric Bledsoe against a weak perimeter defense of the Knicks. And of course Kevin Knox and Noah Vonleh, though getting expensive, always need a look because of the continually weak PF position on FanDuel.
DFSR Projected Score:Thunder: 113.68 - Rockets: 108.91
Vegas Projected Score: Thunder: 109.5 - Rockets: 111
DFSR Projected Total: 222.59
Vegas Over/Under: 220.5
Amazingly enough, this matchup of superstar point guards (Westbrook and Harden) has the second-lowest over/under on the day at 220.5. Only Portland-Utah is lower. But we have some plays to call out here on both sides of the ball.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 56.26 DK - 58.3
From a fantasy perspective, Westbrook is in beast mode of late, easily averaging a triple-double per game (15 points, 12 assists, 12 rebounds over his last five) with only the suspect shooting (36% from the field) holding him back from the stratosphere. He’ll draw a compromised Rockets’ team without Chris Paul and could really put a hurting on Houston if he’s able to get to the lane with impunity. The DraftKings’ price will make it probably come down to choosing between him and Harden as the pay-up option there. Both seem like fantastic plays.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 27.39 DK - 26.93
Grant is cemented as the Thunder power forward after an early season of shifting him around between the bench and the starting role. But lately, they’ve found out what they have in the versatile defender who can also contribute on the offensive end. Over his last five, he’s averaging more than ten shots per game in 35 minutes and more than active on the defensive end with more than 1.5 blocks per game. His length and ability to easily switch on defense can keep him on the court for long stretches and will come into play against this Rockets’ team. I think Grant’s minutes floor puts him as a very solid cash game play on this slate on both sites.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 60.43 DK - 64.19
Like I said with Westbrook, on DraftKings I think you are going to wind up choosing between Harden and Westbrook in cash. We have Harden as the top overall projection but Westbrook is about 10% cheaper. Even with Chris Paul healthy, Houston was needing Harden to play huge minutes and that trend should only continue in the short term with Paul injured. Harden has played 40+ minutes in four of his last six games with an obscene 40 point, 10 assist, seven rebound average. The scoring isn’t sustainable, but it helps that he’s gotten to the line 84 times in that stretch. It’s pretty unreal the relative usage rate he’s seeing and no other player has the minutes’ floor of Harden on this slate. It’s probably a little too expensive on FanDuel, but the decision on DraftKings is going to be a close one.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 20.72 DK - 21.96
Danuel House grew the start *in place* of Chris Paul last game, but Green was the guy who saw all of the run. The latter played 31 minutes off the bench in the win over the Spurs and stands to see similar opportunity in this one against the Thunder. Green’s fantasy production relies almost solely on scoring and he needs to hit the three ball. But that kind of variance is why he’s still close to the minimum on FanDuel and a punt play on DraftKings as well. I get that there’s risk in his game from a DFS perspective, but like I’ve said there could be very little in the way of cheap options on this slate.
Also consider Dennis Schroder could end up popping into some lineups. He’s good for around 25-27 minutes off the Thunder bench and can get up double-digit shot attempts in a hurry as the second-unit’s scorer.
Also, Paul George is playing at an incredibly high level right now, and has seen the price come up alongside the production. He’s played 38+ minutes in each of the last three games with 24+ shot attempts in each. He’s been rebounding machine as well and now needs to be in the conversation among the upper tier elite big money plays. I’m only a little skeptical because over his last eight games he’s shooting better than 50% from three. That simply isn’t sustainable and we could see regression sooner than later on the deep ball.
DFSR Projected Score:76ers: 115.23 - Celtics: 115.64
Vegas Projected Score: 76ers: 109.5 - Celtics: 113
DFSR Projected Total: 230.87
Vegas Over/Under: 222.5
While from a basketball perspective, this game has so much to love in the rematch between two teams that duked it out in the playoffs last season. But we are also talking about the third (Boston) and tenth (Philly) best defenses in basketball this season and both teams are relatively healthy. Those two things rarely combine into a ton to love from a fantasy perspective because we aren’t getting any value in the matchup or any increased opportunity from cheaper plays. And regular rotation guys are all fairly priced.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 52.71 DK - 55.41
From a points per dollar perspective, Embiid actually rates as the *best play* from this game in our system, though that doesn’t mean we should run out and jam him into lineups. He does draw a fine enough matchup against a Celts’ team just getting Al Horford back from a longer absence and without Aron Baynes because of the broken hand. That leaves them a little thin on the defensive interior In their first meeting this season, Embiid went for 23/10 which really doesn’t get it done at this price, but it’s getting close and DraftKings is almost daring you to play him at sub-$10K. His minutes could trend into the upper-30’s if the game stays close and this is a guy averaging 26 points, 13 rebounds and two blocks on the season. Boston has allowed above average rebounding to opposing centers this season (3% more) and around league average scoring. In a game short on DFS value, Embiid is the one guy who begins to stand out but there are so many superstars worth paying up for on this Christmas slate.
If Wilson Chandler sat out again, I do think you can consider Mike Muscala again if the latter started. I know he bombed last game but he’d be worth a look on the cheap if in the starting lineup again.
DFSR Projected Score:Lakers: 104.51 - Warriors: 119.64
Vegas Projected Score: Lakers: 112.75 - Warriors: 121.75
DFSR Projected Total: 224.15
Vegas Over/Under: 234.5
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 46.76 DK - 49.77
After a torrid start to the season, followed by an extended injury absence, Curry has come down to Earth (his Earth, not a normal person’s Earth) in the short term with his shooting. He’s still shooting the lights out, just not keeping up the 50% from downtown numbers he’d posted earlier in the season. That being said, the price on this short slate filled with superstars is somewhat advantageous. The Lakers are improving on defense, flirting with a top ten defensive efficiency and are allowing around league average scoring to opposing point guard. The key with Steph here is that in the primetime matchup against a high profile LA team, we could see him up towards max minutes. He’s played 36 or more in four of the last five games and could slaughter this DraftKings’ price if the three ball is falling in volume.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 50.82 DK - 51.43
Durant and Lebron will match up against each other in this one, in something of a rematch of the Championship series from last season. In that we saw Durant dagger Lebron to close out the series while also matchup him toe-to-toe on the defense end. It ends up being something of a max effort game for Durant because of the defensive matchup, but should also mean a ton of minutes. He’s shown the scoring touch in the short term with Steph back, averaging 31 points on better than 50% shooting over the last three. Like Curry, the sub-$10K DK price leaves a lot of room for upside if the game stays close. This has the second-highest spread (-9) of the slate and Golden State is always at risk of running opposing teams out of the gym (especially at home).
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 35.42 DK - 34.72
Green has returned from injury and is back to his Swiss Army Knife approach to fantasy production even as the fourth option on offense for the Warriors. Over the last five games he’s averaging nine points, nine rebounds, five assists and two steals per game and could wreak havoc on a Lakers’ team prone to sloppiness on the offense end at times. Considering how weak power forward is on FanDuel, Green has to be in consideration if you think he’s in line for 35+ minutes.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 30.71 DK - 31.1
I was a bit concerned it would take Ingram a longer runway to get back to robust minutes after missing about three weeks with the ankle injury. But he played 37 against Memphis on Sunday and finished with 20 points and four rebounds. He isn’t all that expensive (something we are really looking for on this slate) but will need to contribute across the box score in order to hit value. The rebounding and assist numbers tend to come and go with Ingram, leaving us in something of a weird spot on his price point. But this Lakers team, as they get healthier, are a little overpriced outside of a couple of players. Ingram is one who could see upper 30’s minutes in a close game and the volume on the rebounding and assists could be there in a pace up matchup.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 26.25 DK - 26.17
This one will come down to whether we have news on Javale McGee and Tyson Chandler leading into an early lineup lock. With McGee out, Zubac has moved into the starting role over the last two games. He’s played 32 and 33 minutes respectively and been about a great as a fantasy play as you could want at these prices. He’s averaged 18 points and eight rebounds per game and is still coming at the minimum on FanDuel. He’d easily be the center chalk play if we had the news on the other Lakers’ centers early enough. That will be one of the big question for the slate. As it stands if even one of McGee or Chandler missed I think Zubac would be a safe enough play considering the price point.
Also consider Klay Thompson always has upside if the three ball is falling volume.
DFSR Projected Score:Trail Blazers: 113.38 - Jazz: 108.54
Vegas Projected Score: Trail Blazers: 104.25 - Jazz: 110.25
DFSR Projected Total: 221.92
Vegas Over/Under: 214.5
The game with the lowest implied total on the day might also just have some DFS value for us as well. With the other games filled with superstars and some possibly-high flying totals, the players in this game have been priced down because of the slower matchups.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 48.2 DK - 50.17
Lillard is coming very cheap on DraftKings for a guy putting up 27.1 points per game on the least amount of minutes he’s played over the last five seasons. He’s shooting close to 40% from three and still rebounding well (five per game) for the position. The Jazz have been sneaky bad against point guards this season, allowing about 10% more scoring than league average thank to Rubio playing more minutes this season. Lillard could be an offbeat DraftKings play because of the matchup, but our system sees a lot of value in his upside because he’s priced down with the matchup.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 33.67 DK - 34.62
With CJ, you need him to score plain and simple. Among players with 800 or more fantasy points on the season (82 total), McCollum is the third-most reliant on actual scoring for his fantasy production (70%). Only J.J. Redick and Tim Hardaway Jr. have a higher percentage of production from their actual scoring. And this path to fantasy relevance will always make him a high variance play. He needs to put the ball in the bucket in order to not kill you. It wouldn’t seem like running him into a Jazz defense would be the time to take on this kind of fantasy liability, but the price on both sites is almost daring you to do so. This is the second-cheapest he’s been on FanDuel all season and cheapest we’ve seen him on DraftKings. We are literally buying at the bottom on McCollum. And I’m fine with that even with the matchup.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 31.71 DK - 32.38
The Jazz have been fine playing Rubio in crunch time this season which really helps raise the floor on his minutes in any given game, something we couldn’t count on last season. Portland, like Utah, has been below average defending point guards this season (thanks in part to Lillard) and allowing 3% more scoring than league average to the position. Though these two teams played last week and Utah won in a blowout, Vegas sees the game staying closer this time around which should spell minutes for Rubio.
Also consider Al-Farouq Aminu
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My NBA sheet for today:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1flIvrdD_TAuP88QNjZ8mABA4pL16uhLdxwGZEB8qtxM/edit?usp=sharing