Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) drives around Utah Jazz guard Raul Neto, left, in the first quarter during an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
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DFSR Projected Score:Magic: 108.78 - Bulls: 93.19
Vegas Projected Score: Magic: 103.5 - Bulls: 100
DFSR Projected Total: 201.97
Vegas Over/Under: 203.5
DFSR Suggested Bet(s)
Magic -3.5
Magic -160
I'm not sure what to say about this one, to be honest. Orlando is 14-16 with a -3.9 point differential on the season, and Chicago is 7-25 with a -10.6 point differential. Orlando is still doing their best to win games, and Chicago is doing their best to acquire lottery balls.
To go a little deeper, though, it can be helpful to try and figure out how and where teams are putting up their points. On the Orlando side, Nikola Vucevic is going to be returning from paternity leave, and he'll be running up against a Chicago team that's allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing centers. Our system is going to give a little boost to Orlando since their best offensive player will go up against Chicago's weakest defensive link. Chicago has been a hair better at home this year, but the mismatch down low should more than account for that. Our system actually sees some blowout risk going Orlando's way here, and I've bet the Magic with the points and the money line.
DFSR Projected Score:Jazz: 105.87 - Trail Blazers: 116.38
Vegas Projected Score: Jazz: 106 - Trail Blazers: 108
DFSR Projected Total: 222.25
Vegas Over/Under: 213
DFSR Suggested Bet(s)
Portland -2
Over 213
We talked about this on today's podcast, but Utah's defensive reputation now officially outstrips reality. After years of being one of the 5 slowest teams in the league with the 5 best defenses, the Jazz have settled in as the 18th fastest team and the owners of the 8th best defense.
Portland is playing a bottom 10 pace, but they pair that with a bottom 10 defensive efficiency. All this to say - these aren't great match-ups, but they aren't awful either.
Utah has become something of a public team when it comes to betting the under, this game is kind of the inverse of the Chicago/Orlando game. Utah's most oppressive defender is Rudy Gobert, who can shut down bigs with ease. Portland doesn't really do a whole lot offensively down low, so his presence isn't as valuable here as it would be in a league average match.
Since Portland generates most of their value from their backcourt, we also like them to beat Utah by more than the projected 2 points, and I've put a unit on Portland -2 as well.
Bonus bets: Toronto -12.5, Under 233 in the ATL/NY game.
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Great article guys!
Check out this website for another take on tonights slate!
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