Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 16

It's week 16 in the NFL! We're fresh off a week of some terrible quarterback play, a resounding number of duds among the cheap wide receivers, and a market that has us paying up significantly for running backs. With the season winding down, do we need to worry about players starting to rest up for the playoffs? Let's dive in and make sense of it.

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Quarterback

Dak Prescott FD 7300 DK 5700
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 19.75 DK - 20.33
Well, we're headed into one of the weirder weeks at quarterback this season. Last week saw perhaps the widest spread in cash game ownership of the season, and basically none of the highly owned options on the main slate performed. Ben and Brady were bad in their much anticipated match-up, Jameis was non-existent, Lamar Jackson was only okay, and Dak was bad. But we can't give up on every single quarterback and still play DFS, so here we are. The first word of encouragement I'd give you about playing Dak is that you don't want to go overboard worrying about small sample sizes. Yes, the Cowboys were horrid last week, but they are still holding on to their division lead by the skin of their teeth. Everything I wrote about Prescott last week still holds as well - he's on pace to finish with his highest completion percentage, passing yards, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns of his career. Before last week's debacle he had been very consistent in terms of fantasy production as well. The Colts are quietly a top 10 defense this season, and Tampa Bay's defense will be a nice change of pace. The Bucs are now a step ahead of historically bad, but they have still allowed the highest yards per attempt to opposing passers of any team this season. I'll be pretty surprised if Dak isn't the highest owned FanDuel QB this week.

Nick Foles FD 6000 DK 4700
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 16.4 DK - 17.11
If people do buck the Dak train, I think Foles is actually a pretty interesting option, particularly on DraftKings. While we have been somewhat wary of back-up quarterbacks this season, Foles and his recent Superbowl ring are not exactly the back-ups you are used to. His fantasy resume this season is underwhelming, yes, but there looks to be room for growth. Foles completed 24 of 31 passes for 270 yards last week, and ran pretty bad to turn those peripherals into 0 touchdowns and 1 interception. This is the same guy that averaged 360 yards with 3 touchdowns on the very biggest stage possible against the Vikings and Pats last winter. Houston is a league average match-up, but this play is much more about this being a price and opportunity mismatch. In a week where we lack a lot of great value plays elsewhere, Foles could be the high floor option we're looking for.

Ben Roethlisberger FD 8700 DK 6700
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 21.12 DK - 22.01
If you absolutely must pay up at quarterback this week (or you're playing in a tournament), I'm not pouring dirt on Roethlisberger just yet. Yes, he's expensive, but he is averaging more fantasy points than any other QB on this slate as well. Yes, the 15.1 fantasy points last week was his second worst of the season - but you have to be pretty good to have that be your second worst game on the season. At this point in the season, Ben has by far the best receiving duo on the main slate, and that should give him a floor that guys like Dak and Foles will have a tough time boasting. New Orleans' 8.1 yards per attempt allowed is just .2 less than last place Tampa Bay, and while Ben hasn't put up big numbers in good match-ups recently, you have to believe he has it in him. I'm probably only playing Roethlisberger if some serious value opens up elsewhere, but he's certainly on my radar at this point.

Also considered: Andrew Luck, for similar reasons to Ben. I still think I'm going cheaper at this position though.

Running Back

Ezekiel Elliott FD 8800 DK 9000
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 24.92 DK - 27.64

It’s becoming something of a tired refrain, but there’s simply no reason to fade Elliott on this main slate of games. I’ll rehash some of the talking points, which are going to sound very similar to previous weeks, but the context remains the same. Through 15 weeks of football, Zeke’s 26.8 touches per game (carries + targets) are a full 10% higher than the next closest RB (Gurley, and he’s banged up) and 16% higher than number three (James Conner). After suffering a brutal, shutout loss to the Colts in Week 15 in which Elliott still managed 26 touches (18 carries, 8 targets for 128 total yards) the Cowboys will likely go right back to the well in Week 16 against the Bucs. Tampa Bay owns the 30th ranked defense on the reason and have given up production in all phases of the game. With Dallas -7 home favorites and very much needing a win to secure the playoffs, expect to see Elliott as a chalk play once again on both sites.

Nick Chubb FD 7900 DK 7300
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 20.66 DK - 20.88

Since Week 7, when the Browns traded away Carlos Hyde, only one running back has more carries than Nick Chubb’s 148 (see above: Ezekiel Elliott - 169). Chubb’s usage is, at times, game script independent with 18+ carries in three losses. Really, only the game against Houston in which Cleveland was down 23 points at halftime did he not see elite usage rates. He’s been remarkably efficient, averaging 4.64 yards per carry and seeing at least a nod in the passing game with 22 targets in that span (more than two per game). This week he’s in a smash spot against the Bengals who’ve been decimated by injuries. The Browns are -9 home favorites and I suppose haven’t been fully eliminated from the playoffs quite yet. It sure looks like the spot where Chubb could touch the ball 23+ times with massive upside on usage.

Marlon Mack FD 7000 DK 5500
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 17.91 DK - 18.7

The Giants are coming off a week that saw them completely shredded by the Derrick Henry to tune of 33/170/2, good for 5.2 yards per carry. This is a bottom third defense with nothing to play for. The Colts meanwhile are playing as -9 home favorites, fighting for a playoff berth and likely leaning on Mack to grind this one down. The Colts clearly want to lean on him as a bell-cow back in the right scripts and he’s carried the ball 14 or more times in six of his 10 starts this season (even topping 25 carries twice). Last week he saw all the usage, touching the ball 28 times in a shutout of the Cowboys. The price doesn’t see much of a correction on either site and this is the perfect running back opportunity in DFS.

Tevin Coleman FD 6400 DK 4800
Opponent CAR
Proj Points FD - 15.73 DK - 17.18

Ito Smith is out for the rest of the season on the injured reserve and that *should* open up all of the carries for Coleman. If I’m noncommittal, it’s only because we’ve been down this path with the Falcons this season; with Tevin Coleman. When Devontae Freeman went down earlier in the season it looked like this would be Coleman’s backfield. But then Ito Smith entered the picture and we got the sense that Atlanta just really wants to split carries. That could be the case again here with Brian Hill hanging around. I’m fine risking it with the DraftKings’ price but on FanDuel it’s much closer especially considering some of the other running back value out there. If Coleman sees high-teens carries (especially with the Falcons favorites now that Cam is out) then he’s a crazy value. But the team has given us enough reason for skepticism.

Wide Receiver

Amari Cooper FD 7000 DK 7500
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 14.62 DK - 17.24
Back to the full Cowboys stack for week 16? Sure. Cooper was the highest owned wide receiver on FanDuel last week, and disappointed to the tune of 4 receptions for 32 yards on just 7 targets. The entire Cowboys offense was in shambles, and each of them seemed to disappear. There are a lot of potential red flags with Cooper's explosion - it's tough to reproduce those insane yards after the catch, he probably won't convert 26/30 targets on average, and so on. With how feast or famine Cooper has been, one has to think that the best match-up for an opposing passing game should make the feast more likely than the famine. And the bigger question here: if you aren't going to play Cooper in the best possible match-up, who ARE you going to play? You just can't pay up everywhere, and getting Amari at a relatively cheap price (even if it's an increase over last week) is probably a good idea this week.

Julian Edelman FD 7000 DK 7200
Opponent BUF
Proj Points FD - 16.38 DK - 20.5
With Josh Gordon suspended indefinitely, Rob Gronkowski looking like a shell of his former self, and a mismatching running game, we could see Edelman be one of the top owned receivers as well. I don't relish the idea of grabbing a wide receiver against Buffalo, who has allowed the 3rd best yards per attempt to opposing passers this season, but it's very hard to imagine that the first option on most passing plays won't be Edelman. Brady targeted Edelman 31 times in the last three weeks, and Edelman's relative lack of production seems to have come mainly from his lack of touchdowns. With nothing secured in New England just yet, the Pats should be heavily incentivized to put their best foot forward, and that almost has to include Edelman.

T.Y. Hilton FD 7700 DK 7100
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 17.14 DK - 19.9
Here's an interesting puzzle of a player. Hilton didn't practice at all last week, and was still targeted 8 times in the Colts' oppressive win over Dallas. The Colts said that Hilton's ankle injury flared up a bit in this contest, but given how little they needed from him I'm happy with the 8 targets and 85 yards. Hilton had been on a 4 week stretch where he averaged nearly 140 yards a game on double digit targets. The Colts are heavy favorites against the Giants, and there's certainly a chance we see them feature Mack left, right, and center. Still, Hilton is a true WR1 at WR2 prices.

Robby Anderson FD 5900 DK 4500
Opponent GB
Proj Points FD - 11.81 DK - 13.26
Scraping around in the bargain basement feels more difficult than it has in previous weeks. I don't really trust Sterling Shepard, who can't seem to catch more than two balls a game regardless of how many targets he's getting. Robert Foster can't likely keep turning 5 targets a game into 100+ yards. Jordy Nelson isn't on this slate. Chris Godwin looked very much like a $5,000 receiver last week. So are we left with Robby Anderson? The Jets are far from a prolific passing offense, but Anderson has re-settled in as the defacto WR1. He turned 11 targets into 7 catches for 96 yards and a touch against Houston last week, and has 7 or more targets in each of his last three games. Green Bay has been below average against the pass this season, so we shouldn't be scared of the match-up here. The Jets are slight underdogs here, and I imagine they'll go back to Anderson a bit here. I can't say I feel great about it, though.

Tight End

Eric Ebron FD 6100 DK 5700
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 13.49 DK - 16.27

Was Eric Ebron a colossal bust last week? You bet. Am I willing to go back to the well this week? Hell yeah. Look, this position is a weekly disaster where you are searching out some luckbox touchdowns and 6-7 targets. Ebron is 4th in the league in TE targets on the season and that includes a lot of time with Jack Doyle dominating the snaps. The former is used much more in the pass game, ceding snaps to Allie-Cox on run plays so there’s always going to be some risk in the usage in games the Colts are winning. But considering the price hasn’t moved and he’s slotted a tier below the other tight ends (who are in his usage tier) I’m willing to roll Ebron back here and let everyone else deal with the recency bias.

Evan Engram FD 5700 DK 4600
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 9.93 DK - 12.02

As crazy as it sounds, I still see Ebron as the rather clear cash game play on this slate even after the disaster performance. But if Odell Beckham Jr. sat out again, then Evan Engram would be in play for the Giants. It’s likely New York is playing from behind in this one. Engram is coming off a team-high 12 target game last week against Tennessee and finished with 8/75. He’s always been an adept pass-catcher with only the injuries (and the quarterback play) holding him back and has over 150 yards receiving over the last two weeks.

This week in defense

This is a tough one. My gut tells me the New England Patriots will be highly owned, as they are not over-the-top expensive and the Bills have the lowest implied total of the week, per Vegas.

I'm not sure, though, because the overwhelming trend this season has been to go cheap at defense. You can get a slight savings by taking the Green Bay Packers against the Jets. You can really roll the dice and play the Cincinnati Bengals against the Browns. The Philadelphia Eagles are very cheap, still playing for something, and are against a QB who has shown the ability to turn the ball over a bunch in the past. I don't know, though. Defense just looks sort of unexciting this week, and I'll probably just see how much money I have left over and play the defense that our lineup optimizer recommends.

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