Denver Nuggets forward Nikola Jokic, left, of Serbia, looks to pass the ball as Phoenix Suns center Tyson Chandler defends in the second half of an NBA basketball game Thursday, Jan. 26, 2017, in Denver. The Nuggets won 127-120. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Happy Sunday, dear friends! We have a smaller than usual DFS NFL slate today, but more DFS NBA games than we are used to. Today we have a couple of different slates, so our usual approach of breaking down plays at every position could get a little unwieldy. Instead, we'll try and give you a high level picture of the early slate, and a game by game breakdown for the later one.
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The early slate today basically revolves around the Brookyln/Atlanta game. Here are two bad teams who have blowout risk on a nightly basis, and who cause a lot of stress as a result. Today, though, they are playing each other! Yes, they are still somewhat unpredictable, but this one should be closer than usual. Vegas has Brooklyn as 8 point favorites, but our system sees this game as being a bit closer.
The main injury news for this one is Allen Crabbe. If he sits, you should definitely run Rodions Kurucs out there in all formats. Kurucs has quietly produced on a per minute basis, only being held back by a general lack of minutes. Kurucs was excellent on Friday in a similar situation, and I'd happily play him against Atlanta's weaker front court. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Joe Harris saw increased opportunity as well, and both could be solid against an Atlanta team that plays the league's fastest PACE with a bottom 10 defense. I'd even play D'Angelo Russell in a pinch.
On the Atlanta side, Dwayne Dedmon is a stand-out center option. We almost played him on a full Friday slate in an even worse match-up, and now he gets the best match-up in the entire league. The Hawks have been in wonky game scripts, and that's cost Dedmon his 30 minutes a game, but I suspect he tops 30 here. The rest of the Hawks are playable as well, though I'm less bullish on them as Brooklyn is not quite the universally great match-up it used to be.
The Philly vs. Cleveland game
Jimmy Butler's status is just such a huge question here that it's tough to make any firm recommendations until we know what's going on with him. Right now he's listed as questionable, and if he misses, we've seen Joel Embiid going off in a serious way. Furkan Kormaz will still be a solid play in spite of having a bad 30 minutes against the Pacers. I'd also be fine with Ben Simmons and JJ Redick.
If Butler plays, I'm not sure you'll want to play any of these guys.
Our system isn't seeing any value on the Cleveland side of things. Jordan Clarkson could be a good play if you trust the minutes, but with the way things have been coming and going I'm not hoping to trust it for cash games.
The Pacers/Knicks game
I'm still a Bojan Bogdanovic fan, but Oladipo's return has basically killed the rest of the Pacers.
As for the Knicks - are you a gambling man? 15% of the field played Emmanuel Mudiay in his last game, and my dude dropped 53 fantasy points. Noah Vonleh and Kevin Knox will also see plenty of play as high upside options. All 3 of these guys have to be considered serious minutes risks, though, considering the fact that the Pacers are 11.5 point favorites.
All in all I'll give the early slate a D- in terms of safety. You can get a lot of value in the ATL/BKN game, but you're looking at a slate where the tightest spread is 8 points.
The Wizards completed their incredibly dubious trade, but we still don't know as of this writing whether Ariza will be playing in this game or not. I'd guess he won't be, because these things don't tend to move quite so quickly in the NBA. We also don't know whether Otto Porter Jr. will be playing or not. The Wizards jettisoned Oubre and Rivers, and there are just a lot of potential minutes to ship around here.
It's hard to imagine that Jeff Green and Sam Dekker won't be good values if one or both of Porter and Ariza miss, but again, there is just a LOT of uncertainty here. Thankfully this is the first game on the slate, and we should have plenty of time to sort that out.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 28.53 DK - 28.37
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 35.09 DK - 35.56
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 55.25 DK - 56.77
On the Lakers side, our system sees the usual suspects being solid values across the board. The Wiz pair the league's 7th fastest PACE with the league's 4th worst defensive efficiency, and are one of the premium daily fantasy basketball match-ups going. Unfortunately you will want to monitor the Lakers' status as well, since they'll be playing on the second half of a back to back.
Dennis Smith Jr. has been upgraded to probable, and his presence will kill a lot of the wing value here. He's a high usage player that has the ball in his hands a lot, and the Mavs' prices have become accustomed to his absence. JJ Barea is currently questionable, so his absence could open up some interesting upside among the back-ups.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 35.5 DK - 37.01
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 30.35 DK - 31.69
Two relatively unexciting plays in a vacuum, but sometimes unexciting with a reasonable floor is what you get on a small slate. Our system especially likes Harrison Barnes here, as the Kings have allowed the 6th most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards this season. Jordan just looks like a value play at the moment because his price is more than $1,000 off his peak with no real change in skill set. The minutes are down a bit, but I like his floor plenty against Willie Cauley-Stein.
The Kings aren't a whole lot to look at, as far as I'm concerned. Iman Shumpert left Friday's game with a bruised hip, and while he's not super impactful, he could either be a good play if he's out there or he could open up some minutes if he doesn't. Justin Jackson seemed to benefit the most in his absence, and would be a great punt if he were to draw the start.
It's funny, our system literally hates every single Pelican on FanDuel and loves them all on DraftKings. It's mostly a price thing. Anthony Davis is simply too expensive at $13,100 on FanDuel, but he's totally playable at $11,600 on DraftKings. It's the same story primarily with Jrue Holiday and Tim Frazier.
On the Heat side, we have yet another sea of uncertainty. Dragic is listed as "out," which would make things straightforwardly interesting, except for the fact that both Tyler Johnson and Dwyane Wade have injury tags as well. My gut tells me that Johnson plays and Wade sits. If that's the case, I'm down for a steady diet of Johnson and Richardson. If Wade plays Johnson is still a good play, but I might temper my enthusiasm for Josh Richardson to some degree.
This slate, man. Right now Lowry is listed as questionable, and I'd lean toward him sitting. Kawhi played 38 minutes after missing two games with a hip injury, but with how cautious the Raptors have been with him it wouldn't shock me to see him sit.
Fred VanVleet can draw minutes from either of them given how versatile the Raptors lineup is, and we haven't heard anything definitive by the times lineup lock he could be a worthwhile gamble.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 40.16 DK - 39.66
The big winner, at least from a minutes perspective, of Jonas Valanciunas' absence right now. Ibaka didn't turn it into a ton of production, but he did get 35 minutes against Portland. He'd be an auto-inclusion for me on a pretty suspect slate.
Danny Green is a reasonable cash game option almost no matter how things shake out.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 53.5 DK - 55.5
In a tough match-up with the Raptors, our system isn't drawing out a lot of value for the Nuggets. The one glaring exception is Nikola Jokic. The big man's minutes have ballooned to 36 and 38 in his last two games, and he's probably a true talent $11,500 player on minutes like those. The lack of a true center on Toronto and the low price point makes him a terrific cash game inclusion.
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View Comments
What uncerainty is there for the Wizards. Porter is out and they trade two guys away. Wall, Beal, Satoransky, Morris, and Green will get all the run they can handle. They have no choice.