Online NBA Betting Picks for Friday 12/14/18

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Bucks (-10.5) vs. Cavaliers (+10.5)

DFSR Projected Score:Bucks: 127.03 - Cavaliers: 105.14
Vegas Projected Score: Bucks: 114.5 - Cavaliers: 104
DFSR Projected Total: 232.17
Vegas Over/Under: 218.5
DFSR Suggested Bet(s)
Over 218.5
Milwaukee -10.5

It always feels a little bit weird chasing a popular team and the over, as these tend to be sucker bets. In this case, though, our system sees Vegas as being the suckers. Our system thinks the Cleveland number is basically spot on, but believes that the bookmakers are unnecessarily bearish on the Bucks after a weird stretch of games. Giannis missed the Cleveland game last week, and the Bucks still beat them by 16 points and were resting their starters in the fourth quarter. Tristan Thompson will miss this game as well, denying the Cavs one of their better defenders. Yes, this game is in Cleveland, but the return of the Greek Freak should more than make up for the change of scenery. I'll be grabbing the Bucks and the over for one unit each.

Knicks (10) vs. Hornets (-10)

DFSR Projected Score:Knicks: 103.2 - Hornets: 117.02
Vegas Projected Score: Knicks: 107.25 - Hornets: 117.25
DFSR Projected Total: 218.22
Vegas Over/Under: 224.5
DFSR Suggested Bet(s)
Charlotte -10
Under 224.5

It's always interesting seeing how the public reacts to these games where we have a recent game to point to. The Knicks and Hornets met in New York on December 9th, and the Hornets walked away as 12 point victors. So has anything really changed here? When we're betting sports, we want to be very wary of referencing one game sample sizes. In that Knicks/Hornets game, the Knicks actually ran far ahead of expectation from deep, making 12/24 of their threes. Missing two more of those would have shaved 6 points off the board in all likelihood. No Hornet starter needed to play more than 30 minutes thanks to the Hornets running out ahead early, and the Hornets were actually up 21 points headed into the fourth. Our system is very bearish on the Knicks' ability to score Vegas' implied total as well, which is where the under should come in. If we see the Hornets' guys get their full run, winning by 10 at home seems trivial.

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