Oklahoma City Thunder's Russell Westbrook dribbles the ball during the first half of an NBA basketball game against the Los Angeles Lakers, Wednesday, Jan. 3, 2018, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
It's a big Friday in the NBA with a bunch of value plays already on the board. That could lead to a stars and scrubs approach to lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Let's take a look at what Friday in the NBA has to offer.
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Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 24.16 DK - 24.64
Frazier got the surprise start over Wesley Johnson on Wednesday and the move worked for the Pelicans. Dude was awesome, playing 37 minutes in a blowout win over the Wizards and finishing with 12 points, 12 assists and six rebounds. I didn’t expect him to get anywhere near that kind of run considering how the Pelicans had been handling their rotations with Holiday at the point, but that was clearly wrong. Frazier will likely stick in the starting lineup again on Friday and doesn’t see a crazy price jump game over game. He stands to be one of the higher-owned plays on the slate.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 22.17 DK - 22.87
In another surprise move, the Suns released Isaiah Canaan two days removed from him being in their starting lineup. Okobo came off the bench against the Clippers, tallying 32 minutes and scoring 19 points on 8-12 shooting. It looks like he’ll be the primary ballhandler off the bench with Devin Booker taking over the starting point guard role, but the Suns were willing to play them together on Wednesday. You aren’t likely to get a repeat of the 8-12 shooting (3-5 from three) but the minutes make up for that at these prices. Okobo and Frazier make it very easy to go double cheap at point guard on Friday.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 60.57 DK - 63.09
If you decide to pay up at the position, Westbrook makes a lot of sense against a Hawks’ team that’s become one of the perfect DFS matchups this season. They are playing a bottom-third defense at the league’s fastest pace, a perfect scenario for Westbrook’s high-octane style of game. He turned in a Westbrook performance of old on Wednesday, going for the triple-double with 23 points, 19 rebounds and 15 assists against the undermanned Cavs. He’ll get a chance to pile on the points again here with Trae Young still very much trying to become even a subpar defender (currently, he’s awful).
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 24.21 DK - 23.89
Jaylen Brown sat out last game and the Celtics turned to Marcus Smart in the starting lineup. Smart played a whopping 40 minutes in a big win over the Pelicans and Brown has already been ruled out for Friday. Smart needs every minute to hit value even at these lower prices because he’s not going to see a lot of shots with the starting unit and is there to mainly be a disruptor on defense. In those 40 minutes against New Orleans, he tallied only eight points, five assists and two rebounds with a block and steal each. That’s hovering just around 5x value on FanDuel. But this is a good matchup for him on a wing-heavy Cavs’ team and he could be in line for a lot of run again.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 58.64 DK - 60.96
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 31.47 DK - 33.32
Chris Paul and Gerald Green are both looking doubtful again, leaving all of the Rockets' backcourt minutes to these guys. These guys have played massive minutes in the short term and that wouldn't change here is Paul is out again. Harden's numbers have been ridiculous in the short-term. Even last game, when the shot wasn't falling he managed to tack on six steals. It hasn't led to any Rockets' success (they've lost their last four) but Harden put up 30+ shots two games in a row and even last game took 11 threes.
Meanwhile, Gordon has put up 11, 16, and 10 threes over the last three and knocking them down at a 43% clip. He needs to hit threes to hit value but like I've said before, that's factored into the price. The Spurs actually rank 23rd in defensive efficiency this season. They aren't a team we need to avoid in DFS by any stretch and don't let the historical stats fool you. They are struggling on the defensive end.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 32.63 DK - 32.7
Warren was questionable going into Wednesday’s game but ended up playing. He’s made strides in his offensive game this season, most notably becoming a competent (or better) three-point shooter. After averaging just 1.5 attempts per game over the last couple of seasons and shooting below 30%, he’s now up to four three attempts a game and knocking them down at a 45% clip. I don’t think he’ll be able to sustain that over the course of the season, but it’s a very encouraging sign. He chips in along the other stats as well and is a candidate for big minutes on this Suns’ team that is lacking much in the way of scorers after Devin Booker.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 27.85 DK - 29.04
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 25.73 DK - 26.37
Do I think these guys are all that good at basketball? No. Are they both in line for a ton of minutes again on a shorthanded Cavs’ team? Probably. It’s unclear if Alec Burks will make his Cleveland debut on Friday after coming over in the trade for Kyle Korver and we saw Osman and Hood get major minutes last game. Osman played 40, putting up 14 shots on his way to 14 points, 10 rebounds an six assists. It’s the minutes’ floor that just seems so high on the guy considering he does have some defensive versatility and the Cavs don’t mind running him to the max.
Hood doesn’t have quite the same kind of minutes but still played 35 last game. Both are priced firmly in the mid-tier, often a price point we are looking at when trying to fill out lineups. Neither are incredibly high usage guys, but both put up double-digit shots last game.
If Aaron Gordon sits again, then Jonathan Isaac and Jonathon Simmons would become good value plays once again. It’s a West Coast start so we might not have news before the main slate lineup lock.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 47.67 DK - 49.67
Blake’s had some variable stat lines from time-to-time, but this is a dude averaging 25 points, 10 rebounds and five assists on the season now playing a bottom third defensive team in the Bulls. Griffin is taking more than six three-pointers a game and knocking them down at a 37% clip. The offense runs through him and I actually think we are getting him at something of a bargain on FanDuel where rostering two power forwards is a seemingly nightly issue. He and Drummond see major minutes in close games because the drop off in Pistons’ talent after them is so stark.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 35.83 DK - 35.84
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 27.9 DK - 29.41
I’m putting these guys together playing in the same game mostly because they are around the same price points and, while they look like values on paper, have some question marks around the safety. Nance, as a chalk play on Wednesday, was something of a disappointment only scoring seven points while adding 10 rebounds and two assists. Getting any kind of usage in this offense is the primary concern for Nance even though he can pile on the rebounds and defensive stats (0 steals or blocks last game killed him). I’m still bullish on the minutes, but he’s isn’t a lock to hit value at these prices.
Meanwhile, even in this Celtics’ starting lineup, Morris is able to find shots, getting up 14 attempts last game and putting up 19 points and 11 rebounds. He is in a great matchup here against the worst defensive team in the league and sees something of a usage bump with Horford off the court.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 57.02 DK - 57.48
Drummond struggled last game against the Knicks, ceding rebounding to Blake Griffin as he dealt with Enes Kanter in the post. But on Friday he gets a fantastic matchup against the Bulls who’ve been blitzed by opposing centers this season. They’ve allowed 7% more scoring and 10% more rebounding than league average to opposing big men and Drummond could feast on the blocks in this one. He’s seen the minutes get burned off from time-to-time because of foul trouble and other mitigating circumstances, but it’s only stood to keep the price relatively in check. He makes for one of the best big money plays on the slate.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 24.67 DK - 24.68
Al Horford’s already been ruled out for Friday, likely leaving the spot start to Baynes. When Big Al sat out three games ago Baynes played 23 minutes putting up 16 points and nine rebounds. He’s a fantastic punt play on both sites for Friday and could end up being a chalk play at near the minimums on DraftKings. Considering you can roster two centers there, going stars and scrubs with he and Drummond becomes totally viable. I’m not expecting a ton of minutes out of Baynes in this matchup but he doesn’t need much to hit value.
Strongly consider Nikola Vucevic if Aaron Gordon sits out again.
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