Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 11/28/18

We've got a ten-game NBA slate coming your way featuring superstars like Russell Westbrook, Giannis Antetokounmpo,  James Harden, Anthony Davis and more. That's going to make for some big money decisions in your FanDuel and DraftKings lineups. But there's value around the edges as well. Let's break down some of the cash game plays on this slate.

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Point Guard

Russell Westbrook FD - $11100 DK - $10900
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 58.07 DK - 60.72
There are going to be some bigger money decisions on this slate with Westbrook, Harden (possibly without Chris Paul) and Giannis all staring down the barrel at good matchups. Russ is mostly back in his triple-double groove since coming back from injury (and the birth of his kids) though hasn't put it all together for a Westbrook-like monster fantasy game. Over the last four games, he's averaging 22 points, 10 assists and nine rebounds with scoring being the primary issue in holding down the upside. His shots per minute are mostly there but he's running bad from behind the arc. He's never been a particularly efficient three-point shooter, but this season has been extra bad at 17% (30% for his career). At six attempts per game, this is keeping the scoring in check. I do think we have a big game coming and on Wednesday he draws the second-worst defensive team in the league.

Eric Bledsoe FD - $7400 DK - $6900
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 39.04 DK - 39.14
It sure seems like the Bucks’ plan in close games is to play Bledsoe minutes in the mid-30’s. The issue is, of course, that the Bucks just don’t play in a lot of close games. Over the last two, with the games on the line, he’s averaged 35 minutes and 18 points, seven assists, two rebounds with some steals thrown in. The Bulls come with the 21st-ranked defense on the season and have nothing in the way of slowing down opponents around the perimeter. The blowout could be in order again though with the Bucks 14 point home favorites against the Bulls. There's some risk Bledsoe doesn't see the fourth quarter again, an issue rostering him in fantasy this season.

There are other point guards to consider as well.

JJ Barea would once again make a great play if Dennis Smith Jr. sits out. The latter is currently questionable. Barea has played 29 and 26 minutes over the last two with 30 or more fantasy points in both.

Then there's the expensive contingent of Kemba Walker, Ben Simmons, and John Wall. At their current price points and minutes floors, it's tough to distinguish among the group. If put on the spot though, I'd rank them in that order.

Shooting Guard

James Harden FD - $11600 DK - $11600
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 61.78 DK - 63.88
Eric Gordon FD - $5500 DK - $5800
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 33.35 DK - 35.41
With news that Chris Paul’s injury is more than just a simple soreness in his leg and could be a hamstring injury (the same hamstring that kept him out of the end of the Conference Finals), I doubt we see him play on Wednesday. If that was the case, we would see another huge night of minutes and usage out of these two guards. In the overtime loss to the Wizards on Monday, Harden put up an eye-popping 54 points, 13 assists and eight rebounds in 47 minutes as a chalk play. Gordon was of similar value, scoring 36 points on 12-23 shooting (8-16! from three). Harden’s price remains relatively the same while Gordon sees a slight uptick on FanDuel ($5100 to $5500) and a big jump on DraftKings ($4800 to $5800). If there’s no CP3 on the court, then both of these guys still make for incredibly high floor plays against the Mavericks on Wednesday considering they both see massive usage and minutes upticks with the lack of Rockets’ backcourt options. You’ll likely see them again as chalk against a Dallas team that’s about league average on defense.

Jeremy Lamb FD - $6600 DK - $6400
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 34.8 DK - 35
The Hornets haven’t been fully committed to playing Lamb major minutes until somewhat recently. After averaging about 25 minutes per game over the first month of the season, he’s bumped that up to 32 minutes per game in the short term. Over the last five games, Lamb is averaging 18 points, seven rebounds and three assists and putting up around 13 shots per game. I don’t think the price has fully caught up to this recent production and he gets a fantastic matchup against the Hawks. Atlanta is among the worst defensive teams in the league and is particularly bad against opposing wings. Lamb could be in line for heavy minutes again and the volume shooting is encouraging.

Much like Bledsoe, I think there’s still upside on Malcolm Brogdon. He played 35 and 37 minutes over the last two, taking 15 and 16 shots respectively. That’s an amazing sign for his usage in this offense. I very much doubt he has anything in the way of ownership on this slate but is two games away from 23 points while last game he put up eight points and six assists. If he puts it all together then he’ll crush these prices.

Small Forward

Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $12100 DK - $12000
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 61.3 DK - 62.12
Like I said with Bledsoe, the concern with Giannis isn't necessarily about his ability to pile on fantasy points, but rather whether he'll have the chance to if the Bucks are steamrolling the Bulls. On a strict per-minute basis, there's really no one better than Antetokounmpo who's averaging 27 points, 13 rebounds, six assists and 3.7 steals and blocks combined per game despite only running 34 minutes per. These numbers are just stupid and when games stay close and he pushes to 37-38 then the sky is really the limit. Like most teams, the Bulls don't have anything close to the defensive personnel to handle him (Jabari Parker? lol) and Giannis should get to the lane over and over. He's a cash game play, but don't be surprised if the game is over early.

Rodney Hood FD - $5200 DK - $4600
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 27.69 DK - 28.67
Cedi Osman FD - $5200 DK - $4900
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 27.67 DK - 28.6
I’m still a firm believer in the minutes' upside for both of these guys as the Cavaliers look like they’re moving toward more solid rotations (fingers crossed). Osman ran into foul trouble last game and still played 30 minutes though he also struggled from the field, shooting 3-12 and scoring only eight points. Osman needs all of the minutes available in order to hit value on these prices, but I do thank that’s the Cleveland plan for their small forward.

Meanwhile, Hood played 35 minutes last game and jacked up 16 shots. He finished with 20 points, three assists and two rebounds. The periphery stats won’t always be there for him, but he should continue to see usage on a Cavs’ team completely devoid of offense. This isn’t a great matchup against an OKC team that plays tight defense. But neither are priced out of consideration and we are always on the lookout for cheap plays who stand to see bigger minutes.

If Aaron Gordon sits, Jonathan Isaac would instantly jump to the top of the value plays. When Gordon went down last game, Isaac played 30 minutes and went for 15 points and four rebounds. Jonathon Simmons is also very much in play after moving into the starting lineup.

Consider Nicolas Batum

Power Forward

Larry Nance Jr. FD - $6000 DK - $5300
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 36.04 DK - 35.71
Three Cavaliers on a bigger slate of NBA action? Say it ain’t so. But that’s where we are landing considering Cleveland does seem intent on playing a core rotation of players major minutes. Nance drew the start on Monday with David Nwaba sitting and put up a monster 12 point, eight rebound, seven assist line with two blocks and a steal. The price did come up more than 10% on FanDuel (less on DraftKings) but if he’s in line for another game of mid-30’s minutes then he makes for another cash game consideration. If Nwaba were to return, we could see Nance shift back to the bench, taking him out of cash games, but we need to keep an eye on lineup news leading into lock.

P.J. Tucker FD - $4300 DK - $4400
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 24.38 DK - 24.57
With Chris Paul out and Gerald Green sidelined as well, Tucker has been called on to play massive minutes in the short term. In the last three games he’s gone 43(OT), 42 and 44 minutes with an average of eight points, 10 rebounds and 2.5 assists. As you can see, Tucker needs every single minute he can get considering he’ll never ever see a shot sharing the court with Harden and Gordon. But these minutes are the big key with keeping the floor higher and the PF position on FanDuel consistently looking so rough.

LaMarcus Aldridge has seen the minutes dip down some over the last couple of games. Coach Pop did say that he needed to find ways to get LMA and DeRozan more rest in the short term and that could be why he’s come off the high-30’s minutes. But if those were going to tick back up, this would be the matchup against a bigger frontline of the Timberwolves. Aldridge has big upside in this matchup.

After these guys, there are some other power forward considerations. If Rondae Hollis-Jefferson drew another start, I’d considering playing him in this spot even against the Jazz.

Center

Rudy Gobert FD - $8500 DK - $7700
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 46.46 DK - 46.16
Center vs. Brooklyn. It’s been a recipe for success up until this point and there’s no reason to stop now. This season, the Nets have allowed (regressed) 16% more scoring and 22% more rebounding than league average to opposing centers. It’s been a consistent theme that actually could be put to the test on Wednesday with Gobert. The Jazz have been anything but consistent this season and Gobert’s seen the minutes come and go. But he’s still averaging a double-double on the season. And I do think the minutes will be there on Wednesday considering he won’t find much resistance and the game is likely to stay close. It’s a bit of an overpay on FanDuel, but DraftKings makes for an easy decision with the double-double bonus adding to the upside.

Brook Lopez FD - $5200 DK - $4800
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 27.6 DK - 27.01
Bro-Lo isn’t a guy we’ve recommended very often mostly because, well, he’s Bro-Lo and the guy’s current game isn’t exactly built for cash. He’s turned into the epitome of a stretch five who’s actually living and dying on the three ball this season. He’s 5-22 over his last five games including a brutal 0-12 in a loss to Phoenix last week. The encouraging sign is the minutes are more than there and he’s been able to pitch in rebounding from time to time. Last time he faced off against his brother, he went for 14 points and five rebounds on 5-10 shooting. The price has dropped enough with the shooting troubles in the short term that I do think we can make a case for him in cash games.

Strongly consider Clint Capela against the Mavericks.

If Aaron Gordon sits, Nikola Vucevic would be in line for increased usage.

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