Detroit Pistons forward Blake Griffin (23) during the second half of an NBA basketball game against the Memphis Grizzlies Thursday, Feb. 1, 2018, in Detroit. The Pistons defeated the Grizzlies 104-102. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)
The NBA remains the best show around on a nightly basis and Tuesday gives us some things to think about. Will we see Dwyane Wade play old-school minutes again? Can Lakers-Nuggets live up to the hype? Do the Knicks have enough to slow down Blake and Andre?
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Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 29.35 DK - 29.26
I don’t like writing him up as much as you don’t like reading the name. But point guard is very thin on Tuesday’s slate and Lonzo’s played 29 or more minutes in the last three games. In that time he’s averaged 11 points, nine rebounds and three assists. That’s a little below where we want to be in terms of value on his price points, but I'm looking for a slight uptick in minutes here. The scoring is always going to be an issue, but he does make it up (generally) in the hustle department if the minutes are there. Denver is a good defensive team, especially around the perimeter if Gary Harris is back in the lineup. But I’ll run the risk on Lonzo especially if Josh Hart doesn’t play.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 28.32 DK - 27.88
It’s crazy, but the Pacers really haven’t played in a close game since Victor Oladipo was ruled out four games ago. The margin of those games has been 28, 18, 11 and 33. I don’t think we’ve gotten a true sense of how the minutes look for the starters and think Collison is easily in play in this game. He put up eight points, 11 assists and four steals against the Jazz on Monday in only 26 minutes, sitting the entire fourth quarter in the blowout. The price stays in check and we could see him as something of a popular play in a much *easier* matchup against the Suns. I think 30+ minutes is basically the plan in close games and we just really haven’t seen that take shape.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 24.13 DK - 24.98
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 27.71 DK - 28.36
See what I mean about point guard? It’s looking really rough all around. With Toronto playing Memphis, Miami playing without the position, the Suns not starting a PG (on FanDuel), the Pistons’ timeshare and other potential issues, we are looking at a reduced player pool. Both Mudiay and Burke can pile on the fantasy points with the biggest issue being who gets the lion’s share of the run. Mudiay has been starting, though ceding playing time to Burke. Both are much more DraftKings’ viable than FanDuel where the price has been overcorrected in the short term. It’s more a GPP thing with these guys but there’s for sure upside at their prices.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 29.86 DK - 29.85
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 23.58 DK - 24.99
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 25.61 DK - 25.82
For all that Miami lacks in the point guard position, they are making up for it with shooting guard-eligible DFS plays. D. Wade is coming off a turn-back-the-clock performance against Toronto on Sunday with 35 points, six assists and five rebounds in 34 minutes. It’s unrealistic to think he continues to play this kind of run going forward considering his age and how the Heat have used him over the last couple of seasons. But they are also very short on ballhandlers with Dragic and Johnson out and don’t have much in the way of players who can get their own shot. The price is way too low if he’s going to play even high 20’s minutes again. But I’m just a little dubious because of the track record.
Meanwhile, McGruder and Ellington should see heavy run again (Ellington saw some of it buzzed against the Raptors) but with the Heat still employing a lot of wings, these guys are in play once again. I trust McGruder a bit more with the minutes and his ability to rebound. Ellington is very three-ball dependent which does make him an upside GPP play.
After this group, the pickings get a little thinner. If Torrey Craig starts again for the Nuggets then he makes an excellent punt play on both sites. He’s $3800 on FanDuel and $3000 on DraftKings. He played 36 minutes in start on Saturday and put up eight points and 10 rebounds. He’d be the easy go-to SG if Harris sat again.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 55.16 DK - 56.42
With how some of the other positions are lining up, it’s going to be tough getting away from Lebron on this slate and he likely ends up a chalk play across the board. Over the last five games, he’s averaging 30 points, eight rebounds and six assists per game which really isn’t totally getting it done on these prices even though the minutes have been there in the short term (35 per game). But again, I think you are going to be in the place to take the floor on his points and his minutes’ floor is as high as anyone playing on this slate. The Nuggets will likely front him with Millsap, a tough matchup for Lebron.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 25.64 DK - 26.08
Since entering the starting lineup back on November 11th, Hernangomez has averaged 33 minutes per game for the Nuggets. In that time, he’s averaged 12 points and seven assists with the occassional assists, block and steal thrown in there. He’s shooting a little hot from three (47%) but there have been plenty of double-digit shot attempt games for Juancho, keeping the scoring floor higher than I would have thought for him entering this starting unit. The price is up some, but the minutes are among the best in the game right now. I think he still makes a strong cash game play on both sites.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 30.61 DK - 31.3
Much like Collison, I still think we are getting Tyreke at a discount if the Pacers end up playing a close game and he pushes toward 30 minutes. Against the Jazz on Monday, Evans scored 14 points in 23 minutes, also sitting out the whole fourth quarter. We’ve seen this guy put it all together in a game and if he was in a GPP-winning lineup on Tuesday it wouldn’t shock me. His 10 shot attempts were the most of the Pacers’ starters and he isn’t going to find much defensive resistance from the Suns.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 46.39 DK - 48.48
We could be looking at a Blake/ Drummond stack in cash on Tuesday with the Pistons lining up against the Knicks. New York’s been blitzed by opposing power forwards this season allowing 17% more scoring and 6% more rebounding than league average to the position. That’s what happens when you start guys like Noah Vonley and Enes Kanter down low. When games stay close, Griffin has major minutes’ upside, averaging around 36+ when the Pistons are in games. He’s averaging a fantastic 25 point, 10 rebound, five assists line for the season and has improved his three-point shooting to 39%. He’ll likely see higher ownership on this slate.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 29.44 DK - 29.02
Collins was a chalk play on Sunday against the Hornets and didn’t disappoint with 23 points, 11 assists and four rebounds in 30 minutes for the Hawks. He’s long been a points-per-minute beast with the only real concern stemming from the variable run. But the Hawks do seem committed to playing him NBA-starter minutes now with him getting more and more run as he returns from injury. We might be nearing the peak right now, but at a thinner power forward position he should still be in consideration against the Heat squad.
After these guys, power forward does offer some other intriguing options. If James Johnson can play high-20’s minutes then I think he’s something of a bargain on both sites.
Our system still likes Brandon Ingram on both sites against the Nuggets. He maintains a solid minutes’ floor with the way the Lakers run their rotations.
If there’s a game Paul Millsap sees a full run of minutes, this could be the one.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 52.05 DK - 52.41
The Knicks have been slightly better than average against centers this season, but those numbers look much worse when they have Enes Kanter on the court. Though Drummond isn’t necessarily a true post player, he should cause Enes fits on both ends of the court. Drummond, like Griffin, has fantastic minutes upside in games the Pistons keep close. I suppose there is some concern over foul trouble if Kanter has his offensive game going, but Drummond has 20-15 upside in this game with the chance for piling it on on the defensive end against a sloppy Knicks’ team. Drummond has improved on his scoring this season, up to 20 points per game while maintaining the 16 rebound per game average. The Pistons’ duo make a solid DFS pivot away from Lebron on this slate for slightly less salary.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 38.97 DK - 41.06
Are we ready to believe in Enes Kanter as a safe DFS play? We’ve been down this road other times and been burned on many a trip. But it’s hard to ignore the last two games with him in the starting lineup. He’s played 41 and 33 minutes respectively and last game put up the absolute monster line of 21 points and 26 rebounds. Kanter, from a fantasy perspective, has always had it in him with the lack of defense often keeping him off the court. And, of course, this is the Knicks were are talking about and the minutes could disappear without a moment’s notice. But for the time being, we have to strongly consider him at these prices.
Strongly consider Nikola Jokic though he’s struggled to maintain consistency in both the minutes and the per game production.
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