Charlotte Hornets guard Kemba Walker (15) grabs a rebound against the Utah Jazz during the second half in an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Jan. 27, 2016, in Salt Lake City. The Jazz won 102-73. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
We are through the weekend and on to a seven-game slate of Monday NBA action for FanDuel and DraftKings. Even at noon EST, we still have quite a bit of injury news hanging out there that will affect the slate. Let's try to lock in some cash plays while also nodding to injury news you'll want to keep an eye on leading into lock.
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Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 45.22 DK - 46.89
Kemba is coming on the second game of a back-to-back after really struggling from the field Sunday night in a loss on the road to the Hawks. He went 7-23 even though he was solid (4-9) from beyond the arc. Walker continues on as one of the highest usage plays in the league right now, averaging over 21 shots per game plus six free throw attempts (the highest of his career). The latter stat is a testament to how much he keeps taking the ball to the basket this season. He draws a tougher matchup against a defensively-sound Bucks’ team though they are essentially playing without a defensive center presence this year, meaning Kemba should continue getting to the rim. The price is down just a bit on both sites and he makes for a high floor play against the Bucks.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 37.7 DK - 37.91
I continue to maintain Bledsoe is a DFS bargain at these prices and in the right game script, he should see 33-34 minutes (i.e. if the game stays relatively close). He’s seen the per-minute assist levels climb back to his Suns’ tenure, and is averaging more than six dimes per game. He also contributes on the defensive end with about two steals + blocks per game. And the shot attempts are there as well (11 per game, averaging 15 points per). This game has the highest implied Vegas total of the evening at 235 with the Bucks -4 road favorites. As long as the game stays within striking distance, Bledsoe has a very high fantasy floor.
The Injury News and Other Considerations
Darren Collison would remain a legit value play if Victor Oladipo sat out again on Monday. He’s struggled with Dipo off the court, but the price is still quite low.
John Wall and Kyrie Irving are definitely both in play here. Irving gets a pace-up matchup against the Pelicans and Wall should log heavy minutes against the Rockets.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 38.43 DK - 40.19
Stephen Curry remains out of the Warriors’ lineup so we get at least to more games out of heavy-usage Klay. Over his last five games (all without Curry) Thompson is averaging 24 shots and 10 three-point attempts per, putting up 27 points per game. If anything, he’s run bad from the field shooting only 33% from three. He’s almost completely scoring dependent to hit fantasy value, but that’s mitigated to a great degree if this kind of usage remains. He’s shown the ability to get his own shot off the dribble with Curry off the court and the mid-tier pricing does leave plenty of room for upside if the three ball is falling in volume.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 22.69 DK - 22.74
Jaylen Brown has already been ruled out for the game, meaning we could see an uptick in minutes out of Smart who could enter the starting lineup. But even off the bench Smart would make a nice play at these price points considering his versatility. He played 25 minutes last game off the bench, scoring 19 points and chipping in a pair of assists and rebound each. I’m mostly counting on the Celtics ticking up the run here with them out a wing against the Pelicans.
The Injury News and Other Considerations
James Harden and Eric Gordon vault to the top of the big money/ value plays if Chris Paul were to sit again. With Paul out last game, Harden saw a monstrous 43 minutes, while Gordon got the start and played 38. Both see significant usage bumps over the last couple of seasons with CP3 off the court. The matchup against the Wiz doesn’t cause anything like a speed bump and the Rockets would once again be so short on ballhandlers that both would log heavy minutes once again.
Alec Burks would make an interesting punt play if Donovan Mitchell sat out again on Monday. The former played 21 minutes off the bench against the Kings on Sunday, scoring 14 points and grabbing four rebounds. He’s still priced at the minimums.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 29.23 DK - 30.32
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 26.05 DK - 26.96
David Nwaba has already been ruled out, JR Smith is gone, Kevin Love and George Hill remain sidelined and the Cavs are very short on *reliable* personnel at this point. Osman played two 42 minute games in a row, averaging 20.5 points and 7.5 rebounds, before logging just 23 minutes (he left the game with an injury) against the Rockets. If he’s in the starting lineup against the T-Wolves, then look for another game of heavy run. He isn’t a prolific, per-minute fantasy scorer but in the right situation, he’s been able to pile on those minutes and make up the difference.
Meanwhile, Hood was another one who saw his minutes buzzed a bit against Houston, but the two previous games he played 39 and 34 respectively and took 20 shots against the Sixers. Like Osman, Hood needs all the run he can get at these prices, but I see him as a solid mid-tier value who should have a high floor because of the Nwaba injury.
The Injury News and Other Considerations
Joe Ingles would be in play again if Donovan Mitchell sat out. Meanwhile, Jae Crowder drew the start over Derrick Favors on Sunday but only had to play 26 minutes in the blowout. There’s value on his price points if he starts again AND Donovan Mitchell is out.
I still want to dream on Tyreke Evans’ upside with no Oladipo, though that’s looking more and more like a pipe dream with every passing game.
The big money options Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant are looking a tad overpriced at the moment even in good matchups but could come into play if enough punt plays emerge.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 28.84 DK - 27.48
I’m speculating a bit here, but without David Nwaba, we could see Nance reenter the starting lineup on Monday. It helps his fantasy floor (and likelihood to start) that Cleveland plays a Minnesota team who starts two traditional(ish) bigs in Karl-Anthony Towns and Taj Gibson. Nance will never be a high usage guy in this offense, but will contribute on the rebounding end and piles on the defensive stats if given enough time on the court. He’s susceptible to foul trouble and that would be a concern in this matchup, but he’s also priced fairly at a position on FanDuel that’s awfully tough to fill on a night-to-night basis.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 41.48 DK - 40.82
Aldridge draws a fantastic matchup against a Bulls’ team allowing 7% more scoring and 10% more rebounding than league average to opposing centers this season (which is where LMA plays in this current Spurs’ starting lineup). He struggled in the second half of a couple of back-to-backs over the last week, but should come into this game fresh. In those non-B2Bs Aldridge averaged 25 points and 11 rebounds and played big minutes (37, 40, 41 all in regulation). Pop has nodded to needing to get both LMA and Derozan rest in the short term, but they should both roll out there tonight.
The Injury News and Other Considerations
Thaddeus Young and Domantas Sabonis would both be in play against the Jazz if Myles Turner sat out again.
Marcus Morris becomes a value play if he gets the start for Jaylen Brown.
Also, consider Markieff Morris if Dwight Howard sits again.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 33.16 DK - 33.38
Horford has struggled with sustaining higher minutes and consistent fantasy production this season but I do think he has a very high floor in this matchup against the Pelicans. It stands to reason the Celtics will log him heavy minutes as they contend with Anthony Davis on the court considering Horford is such a versatile defender. The big story is just how low the price as dropped on Big Al, down to $5400 on DraftKings where he seems like an easy value play. It is also worth noting that Horford is struggling from beyond the arc, shooting only 32% (four attempts per game), well below what he’s done over the last few seasons.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 24.59 DK - 24.25
The Bucks have allowed more than league-average scoring to opposing centers this season (though controlled them on the boards) mostly because Brook Lopez was brought in to be a stretch five and they will run Giannis at the center for longer stretches. But it does allow teams to take advantage inside and Zeller will push up to 30 minutes in close games. He’s more a punt-style play than anything else on this slate considering the position is rather weak.
The Injury News and Other Considerations
It’s hard to not love Clint Capela’s sub $8K DraftKings’ price against the Wizards who could be without Dwight Howard again.
Similarly, Rudy Gobert is coming cheap against a Pacers’ team without much (if anything) in the way of interior defense.
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