Oklahoma City Thunder's Russell Westbrook dribbles the ball during the first half of an NBA basketball game against the Los Angeles Lakers, Wednesday, Jan. 3, 2018, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
The turkey carcass is in the garbage, the empty bottle of wine are in the recycling bin, family has cleared out and it's time to wake up from your post-Thanksgiving stupor. Don't worry, the NBA is here for a shot in the arm to get us going for Friday. It's a full day of games with a big evening slate.
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Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 57.32 DK - 60.5
I guess we could call his performance against the Warriors on Wednesday something of a *disappointment* even though the dude went for a triple-double with 11 points, 13 assists and 11 rebounds. It was the *lack* of scoring that did him in on his salary even though all of the other peripheral stats were there. But he also got buzzed off minutes (33) because the game was a complete blowout with the Thunder winning by 28 points over Golden State. I still like the price point on Russ here and his upside is as high as you can expect from any player on the slate. He should go one-on-one with Kemba Walker most of this matchup and the Thunder have one of the biggest implied totals on the day at 117.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 44.8 DK - 46.77
The Wiz have had a hell of a season, and not in the good kind of way. They are in win-now mode mostly because the coach is about to get fired. But we can use that kind of desperation to our DFS advantage because the minutes for the key cogs will be there for sure. Wall played 41 minutes in their come-from-behind win over the Clippers on Tuesday which you only see when the coach needs to survive. He went for 30 points, eight assists and four rebounds. Now he gets a matchup against a Toronto team that doesn’t get you all that excited. But the price is down because of the opponent making for a prime time to buy on the guy.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 38.7 DK - 38.3
He’s not a guy you think about on a night-to-night basis mostly because the Bucks end up playing in an inordinate amount of blowouts. It leads to guys like Bledsoe not getting the requisite amount of run and therefore burning off his fantasy upside. But on a per minute basis, this guy is getting the job done. In less than 30 minutes per game over the last five he’s averaging 18 points, six rebounds and five assists with some blocks and steals thrown in there. You bump that to 32-33 minutes in a close game and we are looking at a bargain at these prices.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 36.11 DK - 37.79
I wrote about Klay leading into Wednesday's slate of action, saying that he was a complete and utter bargain on his volume shooting without Stephen Curry. That night’s game did nothing to dissuade me from the idea that he can A: create his own shot without Steph and B: sustain a high usage in this offense. Dude put up 22 shots in only 31 minutes again OKC, going 10-22 from the field and 3-8 from the field. It was his third straight game of 20 or more shot attempts. He’s just the very clear second option in this offense without Curry and we aren’t paying anything close to correct prices for this kind of usage. The looks aren’t of the same quality from when GSW is running at full strength, but the sheer volume more than makes up for it. This one is an easy play.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 25.61 DK - 25.97
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 25.29 DK - 26.99
With the Heat playing shorthanded on Tuesday without Goran Dragic and Tyler Johnson, McGruder and Ellington saw upticks in minutes with the starting lineup. McGruder played 36 minutes, finishing with 15 points, five rebounds and four assists on 5-14 shooting from the field. He has a high floor in this matchup against a Bulls’ team ranked in the bottom third of defensive efficiency this season. He’s still coming cheap enough on both sites to strongly consider as long as the minutes remain in this range.
Ellington meanwhile needs to hit threes in order to hit value considering he doesn’t do much else across the box score. He took eight threes last game, only hitting two and finished with 19 fantasy points in 33 minutes. His variable minutes and performance (because of the shooting) keep the price very cheap and he’d amount to a strong punt play on this slate if still in the starting lineup.
Consider David Nwaba if he sticks in the starting lineup for the Cavs.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 55.71 DK - 56.36
I know the dude struggled against the Thunder on Wednesday but the dude has the weight of the Warriors’ world on his shoulders right now and, in general, is handling the load. We are actually getting him at a bargain here because the three point shooting has been off the charts abysmal. He’s 2-22 from three over his last five games. Let that number sink in. Kevin f@#$%ing Durant is shooting 9% from three over the short-ish term, leading to a moderate price drop. Do we want to buy on this? Of course. Durant is one of the easiest plays around for Friday.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 24.5 DK - 25.26
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 23.49 DK - 24.07
Do you want to trust the Cavaliers with you cash game hopes on a big slate? Me neither. But there are things to like there. With Cleveland playing something like shorthanded without Love, JR and George Hill (plus being a terrible team and fully in the tank) there are minutes for the other role players. Insert Cedi and Rodney here. Against the Lakers on Wednesday, Osman played a whopping 42 minutes and went for 21 points, seven rebounds and two assists. On FanDuel, the price hasn’t crested over $5K and if these minutes are even 20% too high we are still in a great value place. Sure Cleveland stinks, but they might be willing to play the young guy a ton.
Meanwhile, Hood rolled 34 minutes though managed only nine points, four rebounds and an assist in that time. I have to believe that’s the absolute floor on what we can expect on that kind of run. He’s slightly cheaper than Cedi which makes it a little easier, and I think I prefer Osman, but Hood is for sure in play here if the Cavs are getting more liberal with minutes.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 26.5 DK - 26.62
It feels completely impossible trying to predict the Knicks’ rotations on any given night, but Vonleh has at least emerged as one of the *safer* plays on their roster. He was among the highest-owned players on Wednesday’s slate and it stands to reason we see that level of interest again from the New York power forward after finishing with 16 points and 10 rebounds in 30 minutes. Because power forward on FanDuel is such a nightly minefield and Vonleh is still coming so cheap, we should see him as the punt play once again. Though I would caution that there’s some blowout risk in this game and the Knicks are consistently inconsistent with their starters’ minutes.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 60.77 DK - 60.2
Davis gets a fantastic matchup against the Knicks and should be in line for a monster line if the game can stay close. The Pelicans are seven-point road favorites with the highest implied total of the slate at 122. Davis struggled to score against the Sixers, going only 4-13 from the field in 41 minutes. But he made it up elsewhere, getting a 10 combined steals and blocks and also pulling down 16 rebounds. He won’t face much, to any, front court resistance from the Knicks who will probably trot Enes Kanter and Noah Vonleh back out there in the starting lineup. Davis has monster upside in this matchup and is a strong consideration even at these prices.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 25.7 DK - 25.44
He was a fairly popular cash game play on Wednesday after reentering the starting lineup with the Hawks short on big men. He only played 27 minutes and finished with an uninspiring six point, six rebound, four assist line on 3-9 shooting (0-3 from the FT line). We’ve seen Collins sustain higher levels of fantasy performance in the past and if he butted up against high 20’s minutes on Friday I would still put him in the cash game discussion because of how thin power forward remains on FanDuel. It could ding him some that Atlanta gets Omari Spellman back in the rotation, but if Collins started again he’d be close to a cash game play.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 27.95 DK - 28.1
Dedmon finally entered the starting lineup on Wednesday and could stick there again for Friday if Alex Len remains out. Honestly, Dedmon might stay the started even if Len is back. The former played 31 minutes against the Raptors scoring only four points, but chipping in along the margins with seven rebounds, two assists, three steals and two blocks. It added up to hitting value on his price points and though he probably ran hot in the defensive stats, he ran bad shooting from the field 1-8 (0-4 from three). He’d be a fantastic value play even against the Celtics if he can remain with the starters and push over 30 minutes.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 41.29 DK - 41.18
Gobert finally flashed some of the fantasy upside last game against the Kings, finishing with 13 points, 15 rebounds and two blocks in 34 minutes. It’s that last piece which has been the biggest issue for Gobert in the short term. He’s topped 30 minutes only once in the last five games. That shouldn’t be a trend going forward for the Jazz center and could have a lot of upside as the rim protector against Lebron and company driving the lane on Friday. I think we are buying moderately low for the matchup and think he will be very low owned on this slate.
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