Oklahoma City Thunder's Russell Westbrook dribbles the ball during the first half of an NBA basketball game against the Los Angeles Lakers, Wednesday, Jan. 3, 2018, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
Oh my goodness, what an NBA slate we have on Wednesday. The day before Thanksgiving gives us plenty to chew on (get it?) with primetime matchups galore. Russ vs. KD. Lebron vs. Cleveland. Brow vs. Embiid. It's all too much. Let's get into a fantastic slate of NBA action leading into the holiday.
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Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 54.79 DK - 57.7
Westbrook returned from a six-game absence on Monday against the Kings and looked no worse for wear. He promptly played went for 29 points, 13 rebounds and seven assists in 37 minutes. There was no coddling in the Thunder approach to bringing him back into the fold and you can expect max effort from the guy on Wednesday against his old teammate. This game opens with the second-highest implied total of the evening (222.5) and a thin spread with the under-manned Warriors only -1 favorites. It figures to be the game of the night from a narrative perspective and rostering Westbrook in cash should provide a high floor. At sub-$11K on DraftKings, he seems like close to a cash game lock.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 31.2 DK - 31.1
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 23.02 DK - 22.96
I’m writing these guys up under the assumption that Victor Oladipo sits again. He was ruled out very early on Monday, typically pointing to bad signs going forward, but we’ll need to wait on that news. If the Pacers’ star sits again then both Collison and Joseph enter the discussion as strong cash plays. I was surprised the latter had higher ownership than the former on Monday even though Collison still drew the start and stood to see big usage bumps with Dipo off the court. The Pacers blew out the Jazz so everyone lost minutes, but Collison still managed nine points, seven assists and six rebounds in just 27 minutes. If the affair had stayed even within striking range, mid-30’s minutes were in order. Meanwhile, CoJo ran 25 minutes and managed a 7/4/4/2(steals) line in 25 minutes. He would have pushed 30 had it stayed close. Neither saw anything like a price increase and this matchup against the Hornets is better than what they faced in Utah. Wait to see on Oladipo and then run these guys accordingly if he sits.
Other Point Guards of note:
I still very much want to be bullish on Lonzo Ball who hasn’t seen a ton of minutes even with Rondo out of the lineup. The shooting has been a disaster and he’s struggled to work his way fluidly into the offense. But the guy does get it done on the passing end, can rebound and is an ambitious defender. If the minutes materialize then we are buying super low against an awful Cleveland team.
Eric Bledsoe is still something of a deal on DraftKings if the plan is to play him minutes in the mid-30’s. Portland’s perimeter defense does leave something to be desired and they are coming on the back-to-back.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 38.16 DK - 40.01
The myth of Klay not being able to get his own shot up in the offense with Steph off the court, or not being able to create looks on his own is just that, a myth. Dude has been a volume shooter in the short term, averaging 23 shots (10 three-pointers) per game over his last five. Are they of the same quality he sees with Curry on the court? Of course not. But we also shouldn’t realistically expect him to keep shooting 26% from three (over his last 50 attempts) and it’s only served to bring his price way, way down. He’s a near lock in cash games at these prices. The Thunder have been excellent defensively this season, but bringing Westbrook back into the fold increases their pace and decreases their perimeter presence. Klay could put up a monster line here.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 42.74 DK - 43.7
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 40.4 DK - 42.93
Lavine sat out Saturday’s game with an “illness” but he’s fine now and ready to rock against the Suns on Saturday. This could be an absolute chuck-fest against the Suns and Devin Booker. Lavine trails only James Harden and Russell Westbrook (8 games) in usage this season with a 32.2% mark. He’s putting up 20 shots per game and against a very weak Suns’ defense he should easily eclipse that number. His price is down a bit on both sites with the big slate and the scoring volume should be there for the Bulls’ guard after having to suffer through watching his teammates shoot without him on Saturday.
Meanwhile, Booker isn’t too far behind with a 30.6% usage rate (13th) on the season. The Suns just said f@#$ it last game and started him at the point guard, sending Isaiah Canaan to the bench. That move should stick considering they were able to hang with the Sixers most of the game. Booker got up 28 shots (2nd-most of the season) and finished with 37 points and eight assists in 36 minutes. If the plan is to have him completely control the point of action then we can for sure expect to see an increase in shot attempts over the short term.
Consider Luka Doncic
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 61.98 DK - 63.07
Yes, I know I’m writing up a bunch of expensive players here and that’s somewhat disingenuous because you simply can’t all of them in your lineups together. But I promise there are some cheaper guys coming and the case to be made among the upper tiers of guys is all pretty close. Giannis doesn’t draw the best matchup of the group, but he has the most fantasy upside of the group. He’s eighth in scoring, sixth in rebounding, and ranks in the top 30 in assists, blocks and steals. It’s like he was sent from the future to completely dominate in fantasy (and real) basketball. For his minutes upside and overall potential I put him above the other big-money plays on this slate. It’s going to be a close call because there’s a lot to love about Lebron James and Kevin Durant so I wouldn’t call this necessarily a complete conviction play. But Giannis has a monster projection and is coming in the same price point as those other small forward options.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 21.09 DK - 21.42
After starting the season injured and then being slowly worked back into the lineup, Chandler is now a full go for the Sixers who are still working to find the right rotations for their personnel. From a per-minute basis, it’s hard for him to have been worse last game, playing 31 minutes and managing only two points, four rebounds and three assists. With this kind of run, even without any kind of usage in the offense (which he won’t have) he still stands to hit enough on the auxiliary stats to warrant a punt play. He doesn’t have tremendous upside because of the complete lack of scoring, but I think the floor is at least there if the injury training wheels are off and he is going to play real minutes.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 21.19 DK - 21.78
Wesley Matthews has already been ruled out for the Mavs on Wednesday which should slot Finney-Smith right back into the starting lineup. He’s coming off a couple of decent fantasy games as a starter with an average of 13 points, four rebounds and some assists, blocks and steals thrown in there as well. It won’t put you in a fantasy tizzy, but there’s likely room for upside on his price if he can put it all together in a game considering the minutes are there in the mid-to-upper 30’s. I still very much like him as a punt play against a Nets team that features a lot of wing guys.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 23.03 DK - 23.28
Let me start this by saying that, of course, I don’t trust the Knicks even in the slightest. But Vonleh is seeing the minutes (37 as a starter on Tuesday, 35 off the bench on Sunday) and against the Blazers he put up a 14 point, 14 rebound game. The key for Vonleh here is that he’s cheap on FanDuel at a position that’s increasingly difficult to fill on a night-to-night basis. So while I don’t love the matchup, and I hate the Knicks with a fiery passion, I’m willing to roll the dice on Vonleh’s per minute fantasy upside.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 32.83 DK - 33.24
Not an exciting play for sure. But this isn’t an exciting position. Ingram hasn’t flashed a ton of fantasy upside this season with the addition of Lebron into the lineup but the former is still playing major minutes and can facilitate some of the offense in the right spot. He gets one of the best DFS matchups around against the Cavaliers who rank third-to-last in defensive efficiency this season. Ingram’s per minute scoring and rebounding is on par with last season though the assist numbers are down some. He’s shooting worse from three, so I do think we see some regression there (he only takes two per game). I’m mostly looking at the minutes and the matchup with this recommendation.
The rest of the Power Forward morass:
Paul Millsap remains an interesting option if they Nuggets commit to giving him minutes. That’s been the main issue for the guy in that he’s seen erratic run since the beginning of the season. He’s not going to be a high usage guy but the peripherals get him there on his price point if he’s playing close to 30 minutes.
I recognize Anthony Davis is among the best in the game. But on a night with so many big money plays I’m just not sure he’s the way to go.
Al-Farouq Aminu’s length and defensive versatility could really help him in this matchup against the Bucks, leading to a ton of minutes. That would be the key for him.
And finally, if Jerami Grant sat out and Patrick Patterson drew the start, you could roll him out as a pure punt play at the minimums.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 44.64 DK - 46.36
Play centers against the Nets. Profit. That seems like something of the formula this season with Brooklyn just giving it up to opposing big men without any embarrassment. They are allowing 32% more scoring and 40% more rebounding than league average to the position and that was before Hassan Whiteside put up 21 points and 23 rebounds last night. The Nets just can’t do a single thing about opposing big men. Considering DeAndre is a total rebounding hog (even among his own teammates), we could see similar numbers on the glass on from the Mavs’ center. He’s averaging 11 points and 14 rebounds per game on the season and would be able to stay on the court for mid-30’s minutes in this matchup. He’s an easy double-double candidate on DraftKings and makes for the best center value of the slate.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 21.4 DK - 21.66
The Sixers are doing all kind of experimenting with their lineups right now. They’ve brought in Butler, jettisoned Saric and Covington and even put Fultz on the shelf. Muscala, while not starting, has seen some quality minutes in the short term, finishing with 19 points and 5 rebounds against the Suns. He shot well from the field and got to the line 11 (!) times. I think the plan is the spell Embiid with him and get him stretch five looks from beyond the arc. There’s a lot of upside on this price if the three is falling.
I still think there is a big Rudy Gobert game coming.
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