Miami Heats Hassan Whiteside, right, defends against Atlanta Hawks Kent Bazemore in the first quarter of an NBA basketball game Monday, Dec. 14, 2015, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/David Goldman)
Tuesdays are usually pretty light in the NBA and today is no different. We only have four games on the slate and unfortunately one of the eight teams in the Knicks. But the Heat offer plenty of value, Kawhi is back from some rest and then there's some injury possibilities we'll need to wade through.
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Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 26.73 DK - 27.08
Goran Dragic will sit out for at least the next three games, and D. Wade remains out as well. That leaves a lot of backcourt minutes to go around (and we’ll get to all of the relevant guys). Tyler Johnson will still come off the bench, but he’s been a lock for 30+ minutes over the last three. In that span, with Dragic out, he’s averaged 17 points, five rebounds, and three assists while getting up more than 12 shots a game. His price is up some, but as a mid-tier value play, he should still see plenty of ownership even on the shorter slate of Tuesday games. Brooklyn remains one of the worst defensive teams in the league even while playing at a much slower pace this season. Johnson is a safe cash game play even at these prices.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 42.98 DK - 43.5
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 42.19 DK - 43.87
I can see something of a debate waging around which of these two guys to play tonight. On the one hand, you can maybe just hedge it by going with the cheaper of the two guys depending on the site you play (Dame cheaper on FD, Wall cheaper on DK). Both teams come in with right around the same Vegas implied point line on the night. Wall and the Wiz have struggled this season for sure and it’s let to them getting dusted in the last two games, but this rates to be a close one against the Clippers who are coming on the back-to-back.
Lillard meanwhile, draws the much easier of the two matchups against the Knicks. He’s been playing major minutes of late, rolling 35 or more in each of his last five. Dame dropped 40 last game against the Lakers and won’t find much in the way of resistance from the Knicks’ defense. Like I said, choosing between these two primarily depends on what site you play.
Strongly consider Spencer Dinwiddie even still coming off the bench for the Nets.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 23.14 DK - 23.31
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 24 DK - 25.66
We mentioned Tyler Johnson coming off the bench for the Heat, but these two will be in the starting lineup without Dragic on Tuesday. McGruder and Ellington played 38 minutes each in the blowout loss to the Lakers on Sunday. McG went for 14 points, seven rebounds and four assists and Ellington did his usual, chucking up a lot of threes (11) and hoping to get there on the scoring. That’s going to be what we can expect from these guys on Tuesday against the Nets. The key for both at their current price points are the high floor on the minutes. They should each see upper 30’s almost independent of game script and both are excellent high-floor plays relative to price point. Even though this game has the lowest over/under of the evening, Miami still comes in with some of the best per-dollar value.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 32.17 DK - 32.91
You are still very tied to his scoring in order to hit fantasy value, but that’s the main thing keeping the price in check this season. McCollum is shooting a little under his career averages from three (36%, 40% for his career) and has seen something of a dip in the assist numbers. But his scoring per minute is still up over last season and the Blazers have played in enough blowout-y type of games that C.J.’s seen the minutes come and go. I like his price on both sites again a Knicks’ team playing the second-worst defensive efficiency in the league this season. The Knicks are a total mess, constantly shifting around their lineup and McCollum should see plenty of good looks.
Strongly consider D'Angelo Russell who has finally been playing consistent minutes since Caris Levert was injured.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 46.76 DK - 46.42
There just aren’t that many ways to spend up on this slate and it looks like some value could open up at some of the other positions which could leave us staring down Kawhi as one of the big money options to roster. Leonard’s been able to put it all together in some games this season, most notably the 31 points, 15 rebound, four assist overtime loss to the Celtics on Friday. The scoring has mostly been there, putting down 25 points per game on more than 18 shot attempts with the other stats coming and going depending on the game. Some of that is the Raptors’ scheme, but I do think the rebounds should be fairly consistent going forward. Toronto is only -6 road favorites against the Magic which takes some of the possible blowout sting off the table and I do think Kawhi comes in as a safer cash game play.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 19.07 DK - 19.02
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 25.41 DK - 24.98
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 21.59 DK - 21.69
I’m putting all three of these guys together with the idea that Dwight Howard could sit on Tuesday. The latter seems closer to doubtful than anything and his absence would open up the opportunity for the Wiz to play more small ball lineups. Jeff Green drew the second half start when Dwight went down and finished with seven points and 13 rebounds in 25 minutes. Oubre played 29 minutes in that game and scored 19 points while chipping in four rebounds and assists each. Porter is the real mystery with the starting small forward unable to sustain consistent minutes. But I do think missing Howard in this game would push at least two of these three guys to the 30+ minute mark and there’s a lot of upside for the guys who get there on their current price points.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 37.43 DK - 38.56
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 34.37 DK - 33.51
Danilo Gallinari sat out on Monday with an illness and both of these guys ended up as something of chalk plays for the slate. It could be the case again if Gallo sits. Even if he doesn’t Harrell and Harris make for high-floor plays against a Wizards’ team playing the fourth-worst defensive efficiency in the league this season. They’ve looked lost on that end of the court and could be without Dwight Howard going into Tuesday. Harrell is the epitome of a per-minute fantasy scoring machine. In just 24 minutes per game this season, he’s averaging 15 points, 6.6 rebounds and 1.8 blocks. Those are staggering numbers considering his court time and even at these elevated price points he rates as a play at a tougher power forward position.
Harris meanwhile definitely sees a usage bump with Gallo off the court, but is still getting 16 shots up per game and shooting more than 40% from beyond the arc for the season. The rebounds are where he’s seeing a big increase as well, going to eight boards a game this season after averaging less than six for his career. Again, these guys look a lot better if Gallo is out, but on a short slate would be in play regardless.
After these two, on FanDuel, power forward starts to look real, real bad. You can consider the Knicks’ contingent of Noah Vonleh and Kevin Knox The former didn’t start but because New York is such an epic disaster, played more than 30 minutes last game. The latter is still coming cheap and starting but is very reliant on scoring to hit value. I’m really only mentioning these guys because FanDuel forces you to choose two PFs and there are almost none to even start with.
Also consider Markieff Morris if Dwight Howard were to sit.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 46.59 DK - 46.71
As we’ve said many times, it’s hard to overstate just how bad the Nets are against starting centers this season. They’re allowing 32% more scoring and 38% more rebounding than league average to the position and not much points to them getting any better. Brooklyn is very undersized on the interior, starting Jarett Allen at center and rotating in a group of glorified power forwards. Whiteside can come and go from a fantasy perspective and has seen the minutes trending the wrong way in the short term. There’s been foul trouble and a few blowouts, but this is a prime chance for a bounce-back game. The variable performance has the price on the downtrend but he’s still double-doubled in six of his last seven games and is only a couple of weeks removed from back-to-back 20 rebound games. He’s a lock in all formats
Honestly, Whiteside is so far and away above any other center play that I don’t even want to pay the rest of the bunch all that much lip service. It would make them appear even in the same discussion, which they are not. But I can roll through some other guys to consider. If the Magic can keep the game close, Nikola Vucevic would be in a good spot. The Raptors have allowed above average scoring and 5% more rebounding to opposing centers this season. It’s, by far, their biggest weakness on defense.
Also, Jusuf Nurkic is getting expensive but should have a higher floor against a terrible Knicks team. Turkic’s biggest issue is getting minutes, but is safer when the Blazers can control the game and can’t be exploited by opposing small ball lineups. The Knicks offer no such challenge.
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