San Antonio Spurs forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) during the second quarter of an NBA basketball game in Los Angeles Wednesday, April 4, 2018. The Lakers won in overtime 122-112. (AP Photo/Reed Saxon)
Well, it's 11/18/18, which is a very satisfying day to type out and look at. But will it be as satisfying a daily fantasy basketball slate? Today it's a weird four game main slate, so that isn't so clear. Let's do our best either way, shall we?
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Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 35.47 DK - 35.65
So let's get the bad news out of the way first: this slate kind of sucks. It isn't Lonzo Ball's fault, though. With Rondo out 3-5 weeks Ball is quite simply too cheap as the primary ball handler for the Lakers. It's not a great match-up with the Heat, but we can't be tearing our hair out about match-ups for a guy who is probably 10% cheap if he's going to be bringing the ball up the court. There's always a risk to playing point guards with LeBron around, but I think there's room for Ball to take a secondary role here and still pay off his price handily. Judging by the fact that Ball was 75% owned on a much bigger Saturday slate you can be pretty confident he'll be chalk here as well.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 21.02 DK - 21.43
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 18.34 DK - 19.1
Here's where things start to get as dicey as possible. You could also throw DJ Augustin into this group. What do these guys have in common? They are cheap point guards who play more minutes than you'd imagine based on their prices, but they also carry a ton of risk. In Forbes' case the risk is that he isn't a prominent part of the offense. He can play 31 minutes and not get there on these prices, even in a faster paced match-up with the Dubs. In Mudiay's case, he grabbed the start and was excellent against the Pelicans, putting up 37 fantasy points on 8/12 shooting and great across the board contributions. And the Knicks only saw fit to play him 22 minutes. Still, it's another great match-up and if he draws the start he's highly playable.
On the early slate, I like Teague even if the Thibs should be brought up on charges for abusing his players.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 41.28 DK - 41.76
Yeah baby, yeah. DDR is coming off a game where he shot 30 times, and if you think he's going to be taking a back seat in the premier match-up in the West, you've got another thing coming. With Curry out and Draymond doubtful the Spurs should have a reasonable chance to hang, and I actually think DeRozan presents Klay with one of his more difficult match-up. I think he gets into the lane with ease and uses his old man pick-up moves to get lots of mid-range buckets. The price is up here, but I think we can find enough room to save elsewhere. Love DDR in all formats.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 24.37 DK - 24.58
On a slate with a pretty terrible shooting guard position, I'll be delighted to grab Trier and get away. He's had nearly identical performances in his last two starts, paying almost exactly 5x points per dollar while scoring 11 points from the field. He's not going to be a premier scorer, but playing a 32 minute rotation in a slightly better than league average against Orlando should be enough here. While it's always a risk playing Knicks due to blowout risk, Orlando and their -4.1 point differential this season shouldn't scare us very much.
Okay, we're just going to have to zoom out on this position for a second, because it's kind of bananas. Let's break this down old school game by game fashion.
POR-WAS: No one that qualifies at SF on FD plays more than 30 minutes. Pass.
NY-ORL: No one that qualifies at SF on FD plays more than 20 minutes. Hyper-pass.
LAL-MIA: LeBron is officially really expensive - a $12,100 for an average of 51 fantasy points is just not good. And this is a tough match-up against Justise Winslow and company. On the Heat side, Richardson looks like the highest floor option on the slate, and Winslow could have serious upside if he gets shadow-LeBron duty.
GS-SA: Durant will always be playable on these prices with Steph (and possibly Draymond) out, regardless of what the last two games imply. The Spurs give us 25 minutes of Rudy Gay and 23 of Dante Cunningham. Nope.
It worked so well for small forward that we'll just roll it back for PF.
POR-WAS: Markieff Morris saw decent ownership last game, only to be bad on the little playing time managed to get. Aminu on the Portland side looks like a solid option if you project him for 34 minutes.
NY-ORL: Aaron Gordon almost missed Saturday's game, so I'd want to be really clear on his status before playing him Sunday. The word was that Jarell would have gotten the start had Gordon missed, and he could be a very intriguing option if it plays out that way on Sunday. On the Knicks end, they don't seem to be able to make up their minds. Knox is getting playing time, then he isn't. Vonleh seems to be able to play 15 or 35 minutes on any given night. For big tourneys I'd try either. For cash? Eh.
LAL-MIA: Miami doesn't choose to field this position. Kuzma is just overpriced given how his minutes can fluctuate. Ingram seems to have a solid role, but far from solid production at 25.5 fantasy points a night and a $6,100 FanDuel salary. He's a fine cash option, but nothing exciting.
GS-SA:
On San Antonio's side, I love LaMarcus Aldridge. The Spurs should be able to hang given the Warriors' injury issues, and Aldridge is just too cheap at $8,100 if he plays his full run. The Warriors present us with some value of their own. I'm writing this before we've seen how many minutes Jonas Jerebko is going to play with Green out, but there's a good chance he's a solid option at a truly awful position today.
Let's just clean sweep the center position with another game by game break down.
POR-WAS: Nurkic is too expensive for my tastes, and so is Howard (at least on FD). On DK, though, you can bet our own Doug Norrie is chomping at the bit to roll it back on Howard at $6,600. My one word of caution: Howard's big game against Brooklyn was performance related, rather than opportunity related. This is all well and good, but you're going to start to need HUGE per-minute performances if he's only going to play 27-28 minutes in close games.
ORL-NY: Vucevic was chalk on Saturday, and I assume he will be again tonight in a great match-up with the Knicks. Mitchell Robinson and Enes Kanter are splitting time in NY, which makes Kanter definitively overpriced. Robinson has upside, but I don't trust the minutes and would prefer to not play him.
MIA-LAL: Both Whiteside and McGee are too expensive for cash. Whiteside will always have upside for big tournaments, but he's been playing 21 minutes a game, so tread carefully.
GS-SA: These teams don't really field the position for DFS purposes, with the possible exception of Kevon Looney, who is only a tournament play.
Fun slate, eh? Have fun, and good luck trying to chase those NFL losses on this beast!
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