Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 11/2/18

Let's get it one with another night of NBA action. The Rockets come in running ice cold. The Raptors could be in line for another blowout. The Warriors are the Warriors. And, oh man, there's so much more. It doesn't get much better than a Friday night in the NBA and we've got plenty to break down here.

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Point Guard

Chris Paul FD - $9100 DK - $9400
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 55.18 DK - 57.93
Is it time to hit the panic button in Houston? Maybe. They are 1-6 to start the season, losing by double digits in each of the last three games and will be without James Harden once again on Friday. But while there’s a lot to hate about the Rockets right now, there’s still something to like about them from a DFS perspective. The struggles are keeping the prices in check and Paul has run horribly bad from the field over the last two games (9-32).  The rest of the team has as well. On Friday, the Rockets are a -3 road favorite against the Nets (which says a lot about the state of their season) and there should be a regression in their shooting numbers. I think Paul is an easy play here and even with the Houston struggles, it's easy to make a case for them all at their current price points.

Ricky Rubio FD - $6200 DK - $5700
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 30.39 DK - 30.84
Dante Exum FD - $3800 DK - $3700
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 26.19 DK - 26.58
Donovan Mitchell has been ruled out for the Jazz on Friday and that is going to leave a lot of shots up for grabs on the Jazz side. This isn’t exactly a prime matchup for Utah, but you have to project at least moderate usage and minutes bumps for the Jazz ball handlers, with Rubio being a prime beneficiary. He’s isn’t, in any way, a substitute for Mitchell’s scoring, but I do think we can add minutes to his floor projection. He's been able to hit some threes and can take the ball to the rim in a pinch. The main thing is he's coming too cheap for an almost certain bump in minutes.

Meanwhile, when Mitchell tweaked his hamstring on Wednesday, Exum did pick up a few extra minutes and should be in line for even more on Friday. With Mitchell out and Alec Burks looking doubtful, the Jazz are very short on ball handlers and scorers. Exum, does fit some of that need and to be honest, our system has never seen a game where it didn’t want to play this dude on like 24 minutes at these prices. He should see a lot more and it stands to reason he’s chalk on both sites at sub $4K everywhere.

Shooting Guard

Eric Gordon FD - $5500 DK - $5900
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 32.41 DK - 34.46
Eric Gordon isn’t going to be putting the beginning of this season on his resume. And he certainly won’t be putting the last three games on his LinkedIn profile. He’s been an atrocious 4-26 from three and 12-53 from the field. This marks one of the worst stretches of his career or probably really for anyone who’s been allowed to shoot this much. NBA shooters tend to regress to their historical means over time and there’s no reason to think this doesn’t happen for Gordon, even in the short term. His usage rates and opportunity are still through the roof with Harden out and the Rockets have to start winning post haste. Stacking Gordon and Paul is looking very much like the cash game move for Friday.

Victor Oladipo FD - $9000 DK - $8700
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 45.28 DK - 44.99
Oladipo has been steady as he goes this season without ever really breaking it out of the box in any meaningful way. He’s been on lock for low 20’s points, around six rebounds and the assists have been lumpy. But the Pacers have played in a lot of weird games where Dipo’s minutes were buzzed here and there. There’s still a lot of upside for the guy and he could realize it against a Bulls team playing the third-worst defensive efficiency in the league. They have nothing in the way of perimeter (or any defense) and even though Oladipo is expensive, this is about the perfect matchup for him. He could also pile on the defensive stats against a Bulls’ team that has little in the way of coherent offense. I don’t think he’ll be all that popular a play because of the price, but is a cash game consideration nonetheless.

As far as other shooting guards are concerned, we are looking at some shaky options. Zach Lavine is seeing major usage for the Bulls and getting to the rim a lot more this season. But, of course, he's very expensive. I do think Wesley Matthews is still coming cheap enough in a good matchup against the Knicks.

 

Small Forward

Kawhi Leonard FD - $10300 DK - $10100
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 51.22 DK - 50
I’m very worried about the blowout in this game. There’s no early line, but it’s hard to imagine Toronto opening as anything less than a -8 road favorite. So we likely need to factor that in. But, Kawhi’s put together a magnificent opening run as a Raptor this season, averaging 27 points, eight rebounds and three assists at 35 minutes per game. It’s clear the Raptors are going to do everything in their power to keep the dude happy as the season moves forward (resting on b2bs, high usage in real games) and though the price is up across the board, I still think we are getting him as a cash game option here. Being on the road does help mitigate some of the blowout risk, and the Suns have no one close who can handle him on the offensive end.

Kevin Durant FD - $10700 DK - $9900
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 48.13 DK - 48.9
If the T-Wolves can keep this any semblance of close then the DraftKings price is a total joke and Durant will be a fantastic cash game play on that site. The Warriors are -11 home favorites because, well, they blow everyone the f#$% out. But there’s upside on Durant at these prices even if he is getting a lot of Jimmy Butler (at least to start). The Warriors did work to get Durant going early against the Pelicans and he ended up finishing with a 24 point, eight assist, five rebound line in quiet second half. It sure stands to reason, that with all the Curry and Klay parabolic games to start the season, that we are left out in the cold somewhat on Durant’s game log. That’s led to value prices and considering his fantasy makeup, I still think we are buying low.

Bojan Bogdanovic FD - $4500 DK - $4800
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 24.36 DK - 25.47
Look, I know if doesn’t feel great rostering a guy like Bojan who can pull disappearing acts all the time. He’s very scoring dependent and if the three-ball isn’t falling then you are left with a dude who does little else. But he’s put those games together this season and basically we are waiting for the price to fall low enough in order to not get tilted when it doesn’t happen. In this matchup, I think we are there with Bojan. He’s averaging close to 10 shots a game even though the Pacers have been involved with an inordinate amount of blowouts and though the 3-pt shooting is a bit run hot, the price doesn’t totally reflect it. The Bulls are a bad defensive team and he should see plenty of good looks.

 

Power Forward

Pascal Siakam FD - $5700 DK - $4800
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 28.66 DK - 28.09
I’m interested to see what the Raptors do with O.G. Anunoby coming back after missing multiple games. Siakam’s seen mega minutes in the short term because of some contextual factors and it stands to reason a dip is coming because the Raptors just have more bodies available. But then there’s also the part in which dude’s averaged 16 points and 10 rebounds per game over the last three while also contributing eight steals in that timeframe. He’s been a fantasy god at this price point. If the Raptors are still committed to playing him mid-30’s minutes then this is an easy call. I’m just a little worried that he dips back down into the high-20’s because OG is back and more.

T.J. Warren FD - $5400 DK - $5000
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 29.62 DK - 29.01
It sure doesn’t look like Devin Booker is going to play (again) on Friday and that leaves a lot of minutes and usage open for the Suns. Warren drew the start over Ryan Anderson at the power forward last game and responded with 21 points, three assists and rebounds in 36 minutes. It’s mostly the minutes I’m interested in here considering the price point. He’s a PF on DraftKings (but still a SF on FD) and coming at such a discount if we can project this kind of run. He’s a scorer through and through but there’s auxiliary fantasy upside built in there if he can just see the court time. I think that will be the case with the Suns so banged up right now and lacking any true incentive to win.

On FanDuel, the power forward position is a near-nightly disaster. Players are mislabeled by position and you’re still forced into playing two of these guys. It’s almost always going to make sense going cheap considering the nature of the player pool. If you think Josh Jackson still starting means something then punting at his price points is fine. But know that he’s been as bad as it comes lately. I’m still somewhat bullish on Jerami Grant though he saw sub-30’s minutes in a close game Thursday night.

 

Center

Clint Capela FD - $8400 DK - $7800
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 46.45 DK - 46.55
Not sure how many Rockets are too many Rockets on this slate, but at least three seems viable. Capela does see something of a usage dip with Harden off the court, but is still very much in play against a Nets’ interior defense that features almost nothing in the way of size and has spent multiple seasons allowing well above average production to opposing bigs. Capela has double-doubled in four of his last five games, averaging a 15/11 in his last six. Again, stacking all of the Rockets here is a total buy-low situation with a ton of upside.

Boban Marjanovic FD - $3600 DK - $3800
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 29.83 DK - 29.96
Ok, well here we go. The Clippers started Boban in the second half on Thursday and the dude preceded to play 23 minutes, going for 15 points and 11 rebounds. The only thing that’s ever held this guy back from being the greatest fantasy player who ever lived is the minutes. He fills up the stat sheet like no other. It’s hard to tell if they just wanted him to front Embiid on Thursday or if this is the plan going forward. But I think it’s worth taking the *risk* on Boban at these prices because he can hit value at only about 15 minutes worth of action.

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