Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 10/28/18

It's an itty-bitty 4 game slate tonight, and I'm just thanking the gods that the GS-BKN made its way onto the main slate. Do you even want to play players from the game with the biggest spread? What if the rest of the plays just seem terrible? Yikes.

Instead of going position by position, we're going to instead break things down game by game. There is so much uncertainty around so many of these teams that I think breaking down the situations in each given game (and what to do if certain dominoes fall) will be a better use of your time. So let's get to it, shall we?

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Golden State Warriors at the Brooklyn Nets

Vegas has Golden State favored by 10, and the game has a 226 total
I figured this game would have the highest total when I saw the slate initially, and it's at least the 2nd highest total (and potentially the 3rd depending on where the OKC/PHO lands). It also has the biggest spread by far.

So how do we proceed here? Let's start with the easier team to analyze: the Warriors. The case for and against them is pretty straightforward. If you think these guys get their full run, then guys like Steph Curry and Kevin Durant should be auto-locks. If the game gets out of hand? Gulp. Playing DFS today is going to be a game of accepting premises. We saw in the GS/NYK game that you can't just assume a big spread means a blowout, and even if there IS a blowout, it doesn't mean guys will lose their minutes. I'll go ahead and sign off on playing Draymond Green here as well. I frankly just think the slate is too small with too many bad plays to try and play around a blowout. I think the worst thing you can do here is just try to grab one guy from this game - just be in or be out.

And then there are the Nets. They've played in three close games this season, so we have a reasonable idea of what their plan is when things stay close. When stuff goes haywire? Oh, baby. A guy like Jarrett Allen looks relatively safe in close games, but can he even stay on the court if the Dubs go small? He only played 28 minutes against the Pelicans. In fact, Caris LeVert was the only Net to top 30 minutes in that game. I think he makes sense as a play today, but I'd really rather prefer to fade the rest of this motley crew.

Phoenix Suns at the Oklahoma City Thunder

The game has no total and no spread thanks to an outrageous amount of outstanding news
Russell Westbrook FD - $12700 DK - $10700
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 57.4 DK - 60.7
Devin Booker FD - $8400 DK - $8100
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 0 DK - 0
This is the main game that makes writing picks up for this slate pointless at the present time. Booker did some light shooting in warm-ups on Saturday, but ultimately sat against the Grizzlies. His absence from the lineup just creates a huge usage vacuum. Guys like Josh Jackson become insta-plays, and it also creates a rising tide for anyone who relies on shots. I'm writing this before the game has actually tipped off, but we're going to be paying close attention to how the Suns distributed minutes Saturday night, and of course whether Booker plays or not. If he does play, you can still probably play revelation Deandre Ayton, but the rest of the Suns should be handled very delicately.

And then there are the Thunder, who of course totally revolve around whether Westbrook plays. Westbrook's price on DraftKings suggests that the DK algorithms think he's only going to play 32-35 minutes. His price on FanDuel is more in line with the 37 we've seen from him in the past. And, of course, he's a GTD with this shoulder injury, and we might not find out his status by the time the slate tips off at 5pm. So, here we are. If you assume Westbrook is going to play his full minutes he's arguably a great play on both sites in one of the league's fastest match-ups.

But what if Westbrook misses? I guess we go back to the plan from the first two games. Dennis Schroeder an Paul George were ubiquitous early season plays with Westbrook out, and they would be plays in a heartbeat if he were to sit again. The Thunder look pretty confident in Jerami Grant as well. Just like with Booker, you just have to stare at Twitter and pray that you get the news in time.

Utah Jazz at the Dallas Mavericks

Vegas has Utah favored by 3.5, and the game has a 216 total
Here's another enigmatic game for me. It should be the lowest total on the slate, but this game has a total ~15 points higher than it would have been with last year's cast. Utah has basically the same team, and I'd suspect that when the season is over they'll have played their same relatively slow pace. This means I'd really rather not run the Dallas guys here, if I can avoid it. We saw that even Dennis Smith Jr.'s absence didn't really create a whole lot of value here, and in what should be one of their worst match-ups overall, I'd rather not.

Utah, though, strike me as fairly interesting. I think Dallas' increase in PACE is legit, and they're still playing defense as bad as they did last season (which is to say, really really bad). As I'm writing this Ricky Rubio has snapped out of any early season funk by dropping 25 fantasy points before halftime. Rudy Gobert and Dononvan Mitchell look fairly priced to me as well, and I could see playing them in any format in spite of the lowish total here.

Washington Wizards at the Los Angeles Clippers

Vegas has LA favored by 4, and the game has a 228.5 total
Here's the one I can't totally figure out. This game has a higher total than the Golden State/Brooklyn game, and the total is getting bet up right now. And yet, there isn't a ton of value jumping off the page as of right now.

Bradley Beal's ongoing questionable status makes this team sort of hard to predict, and I would guess there is some chance he gets a day off after playing as a GTD on Saturday. If he does, guys like John Wall move into highly attractive cash game status. Kelly Oubre's been getting consistent minutes, but do you really want to be running bench guys (even on a small slate)? He seems to make for a perfect throwaway guy on FanDuel, though.

The other piece of news for the Wizards is the status of Markieff Morris. Did he miss Saturday's practice with the flu flu, or the "NBA flu"? Time will tell, and again you might not know his status until after lineup lock.

And then there are the Clips. A team many slated for last in the West is now 3-2, and has beaten the Rockets twice to start the season. So we must just be oozing with fantasy value, yeah? Well, it hasn't quite worked out that way. Their starting guards have almost zero good fantasy games between them, and Lou Williams hasn't done much off the bench. Danilo Gallinari has just two good games on his current prices (near $7,000), and Tobias Harris' game log tells a similar tale. They basically don't start a center.

So there's your Sunday. It's just not a slate that can be neatly wrapped up in a tidy little box. Be sure to hop in our member's only chat leading up to the 5pm main slate tip off, and I'm sure Doug will have a lot more answers than I do right now.

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