Kyle Busch drives during the NASCAR Sprint Cup auto race, Sunday, Nov. 20, 2016, in Homestead, Fla. (AP Photo/Terry Renna)
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Martinsville Speedway - Martinsville, VA
Track - .526-Mile SHort Track
After Chase Elliott held off Kyle Busch to pick up his second playoff win last week at Kansas, the field was reduced to eight drivers. The "Big 3" have all advanced but the bigger storyline is that Kyle Busch is the only one of those three with a playoff win and leads them with four Top 10's(Truex and Harvick each have three). The other big story as we enter the Round of 8 is that all four Stewart-Haas cars moved on and five of the remaining eight drivers come from the Ford camp. Get ready for one of the most exciting rounds of playoffs folks!
To kick off the Round of 8, the Monster Energy Cup Series heads back to Martinsville Speedway where Clint Bowyer snapped his long 190 race winless streak. Probably even more memorable here at Martinsville was last years playoff race where Chase Elliott was in the lead late and was destined to win his first race until Denny Hamlin spun him out which brought on all the hate for the #11 at his home track. The worse part of that for Hamlin was likely not the boos he faced but rather that he didn't end up winning the race. This time around Elliott is the only one of the two remaining so we likely won't see any payback.
For fantasy, there are 500 laps here at Martinville so dominator points are the key when building a core set of drivers. Looking at the last six races, there have been multiple drivers to lead 100 or more laps in five of the last six and three drivers to do so in each of the last two races here. Starting position will also be key as passing is tough and only twice in the last six races has there been more than two drivers to start outside the Top 20 and finish wit ha Top 10. The most interesting part of this weekends race is that it's an impound race meaning practice and qualifying will take place on Saturday and following qualifying, all cars will be impounded with inspection not happening until Sunday morning. This the final starting lineup won't be official until two to three hours before the race. Buckle up folks and get ready for a crazy Sunday of fantasy racing!
Since the start of the 2016 season(five races), no driver has been as dominant here at Martinsville than Kyle Busch who has two wins and has finished inside the Top 5 in each race. Brad Keselowski has been the only driver even close to Busch in that time as he has a win and four Top 5's in the last five races for a 4.4 average finish. He has also led 225 laps over the last three races and is second in fantasy scoring in that time. In his first race here since running the #7 for Tommy Baldwin Racing back in 2015, Alex Bowman finished with a career-high 7th here in the Spring. Matt Kenseth is back in the #6 car again this weekend and returns to Martinsville with three straight Top 10 finishes but those came in the #20 for Joe Gibbs Racing so temper your expectations. Martin Truex Jr. returns to Martinsville with back to back Top 5's is the only other driver with a sub 10 average finish since the start of the 2016 season.
Seven-time series champion, Jimmie Johnson, leads all active drivers with nine career wins here at Martinsville with his most recent coming in the playoffs in 2016. He is also the only driver with a sub 10.0 career average finish which is even more impressive seeing as he has 33 races under his belt here. Not far behind is Denny Hamlin who has five career wins here and a 10.1 career average finish. The Busch brothers sit tied with two wins apiece but Kyle has been much more consistent with a 12.7 average finish and 14 Top 5's to Kurt 21.4 average finish and just three Top 5's. Four other drivers have one win here at Martinsville led by Brad Keselowski who has a 12.4 career average finish.
All three short tracks are different so I will be weighing this a bit lower this week but it is always nice to see who performs on these tracks. Leading the way is Kyle Busch who has tallied six wins since the start of the 2016 season, two at each track and three coming this season(Richmond x2, Bristol). What is even more impressive about what Kyle has done on short tracks is the fact no other driver has more than one win in that timeframe. Looking at just this season, Clint Bowyer has stood out above the rest(other than KB18) with five Top 10's and is second in fantasy scoring.
Only three drivers remaining the playoff race have won in the playoffs and while Joey Logano isn't one of them, he has been the most consistent with three Top 5's and the only driver with five Top 10's in the six races so far. Three drivers(Aric Almirola, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott) have four Top 10's in the playoffs but Almirola has been the most consistent with a 9.0 average finish. Kyle Larson has been consistent with a 10.0 average finish but didn't advance to the Round of 8 and just shows the emphasis NASCAR has put on the bonus points throughout the season as he has been slightly better than Martin Truex Jr. who is moving on.
Kyle Busch
He is #1 in my pre-practice/qualifying model and fading him would be a mistake this week as he has three short track wins in 2018 and six since the start of 2016. He also leads all drivers with an average of 129.2 DK/110.7 FD points per race in the last three races here at Martinsville.
Jimmie Johnson
Is this the week Jimmie breaks through with a win in the 2018 season? There is a good chance as he has nine career wins here with the most recent coming in 2016 during the playoffs. The pressure is off now as he is no longer in the playoff race and he has already proved winning is everything(see the Roval race final lap). Even if he doesn't win he is a terrific value in the low $8K range on DraftKings and the low $9K range on FanDuel.
A.J. Allmendinger
Down in the value range, I will be targeting Allmendinger this week as he returns to Martinsville with four Top 10's in his last five races here(the other finish was a crash) and has seven Top 10's in 20 career races here.
Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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