Utah Jazz guard Rodney Hood (5) attempts to block New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis from making a shot in the first half of an NBA basketball game in New Orleans , La., Saturday, March 5, 2016. (AP Photo/Max Becherer)
Friday night is already shaping up to be a crazy one in NBA DFS Land. James Harden is out, Chris Paul is back from suspension, the Pelicans are playing the Nets and a whole lot more is going down. Let's get you sorted for FanDuel and DraftKings.
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Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 47.44 DK - 48.35
James Harden is going to sit out at least the next two games, just in time for Chris Paul to return from his two-game suspension. This is now Paul’s team to run and he gets massive bumps across the board with Harden off the court. CP3 goes from a 26 usage with the Rockets at full strength to a 32 usage with Harden off the court (from last season) and also sees the assist rate go from 12% to 16% in that off court data. The price took a hike across the board because the Harden news came out before the salaries released, but I still see Paul as something of a value even up in this tier. He should also play a ton of minutes because the Rockets are very short on ball handlers after him and, to some degree, Eric Gordon.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 39.46 DK - 39.63
Three games in and Elfrid is still coming much too cheap on both sites. We’ve seen the Pelicans’ plans for him in close games (37 and 36 minutes respectively) and he’s averaging 13.7 points, 7.7 assists and 7.3 rebounds through an average of 32 minutes. This translates to him easily hitting value when the minutes are there and he adds in some defensive stuff around the edges. The matchup against Brooklyn still looks good on paper even though the latter is actually playing a slower pace this season (2nd slowest in league). But their defense is still compromised and I suspect some of those pace numbers to normalize as the season goes on. I’m actually surprised Elfrid isn’t coming more expensive at this point and see him as an easy buy in cash games.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 36.03 DK - 37.87
Do we dare trust the minutes on this guy? He played 34 in a close game against the Knicks, 32 in a 20-point loss to the Pacers and 27 in a blowout against the Cavs. I suspect the Nets’ plan, now that they are getting healthier, is to keep playing Russell because Brooklyn might actually see a path to the playoffs in the East with their personnel. He’s getting up double-digit shots per game and has averaged a 15/7/4 line over his last three games. The Pelicans are a below-average defensive team playing at a top-4 pace this season. There’s a reason this game opened with a 237 over/ under.
Strongly (strongly) consider John Wall against the Kings in the game with the highest over/under of the night and a relatively thin spread.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 35.74 DK - 38.04
Much like we said for Paul, Eric Gordon also sees a big opportunity with Harden off the court. The latter goes from a 24% regular season usage rate to a 29% rate when Harden is off the court. Last season, Gordon led the Rockets in minutes when Harden was off the court, so we have a relatively large sample size on these numbers. He played 40 minutes against Utah, but the shooting was a disaster (5-21). It’s actually kept his price in check and the context around this play is majorly in Gordon’s favor. I have no problem paying middle salary tier prices on him and the Clippers, outside of Beverley, don’t have tremendous perimeter defense.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 39.59 DK - 39.65
It’s easy to dream on the upside for Holiday. He’s struggled to start the season, shooting 32% from the field and a whopping 0.0% from three (0-11 to start the season). Simply put: this won’t last. He’s playing major minutes in close games (38 in both the first and third games) and still averaging nine assists and five rebounds per night. It’s just the scoring that’s stagnated and that’s due for some big-time regression going forward. I love the Holiday play on both sites, but especially on DraftKings at sub-$7k.
Jrue and Gordon are the clear top plays for our system on Friday. There are a number of other interesting shooting guard options though. If you think the Kings suddenly saw the light and want to play Buddy Hield big minutes (41 last game) then he would make a solid mid-tier play on both sites. Then there’s Justin Holiday, he of the many minutes and spotty production. Dude definitely needs to knock down threes and has to play in the upper-30’s minutes-wise to hit, but I don’t mind him as a cheap play.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 51.67 DK - 49.81
I’m still very much on the Kawhi-train this season and, for the most part, he’s delivered. He’s coming off a 35 point, five rebound game against the T-Wolves and is still putting up more than 20 shots per game. He’ll face a Mavericks’ team playing the 11th-fastest pace in the league this season and this game. The Raptors do come in as big (-11) favorites in this one so there’s some risk of a blowout. But our system loves him at these prices and I still don't think we've seen a game with him and Raptor uniform where he's put it all together.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 53.64 DK - 54.2
Durant is down to his lowest FanDuel price of the season and I don’t mind him as a cash game play on this slate. After taking more than six three-pointers per game last season and shooting 42% from beyond the arc, he’s down to three attempts on the early season at a 25% rate. Those numbers are going to turn around and with them will turn the salary as well. The Warriors’ scheme hasn’t changed at all, there’s just been a lot of Steph early in the season crushing souls. Look for Durant to put it all together and for the game script to lead to more attempts for the Dubs’ superstar.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 28.73 DK - 29.69
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 24.89 DK - 24.65
These two make for interesting value plays at their respective price points considering how thin the Rockets are right now. Of course, they are without James Harden. But James Ennis is also out and the Michael Carter-Williams as a starter thing didn’t really work out last game. That could leave a ton of minutes to Melo and Green at the 3/4 in this game. Carmelo could start at the four, pushing PJ Tucker to the three. That would peg Anthony for something in (at least) the low 30’s minutes and make him an excellent middle tier play if he can get the scoring going. Meanwhile, Green should see minutes off the bench and is a dart throw at his price point if the threes are going down.
Strongly consider Justin Jackson ff he gets the start for Iman Shumpert again. We might not get that news prior to lock, but the former is coming very cheap on both sites if he’s going to play minutes in the 30’s.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 62.15 DK - 61.74
He’s easily the best big money play on this slate (or really any slate that he’s on). AD is averaging a 30 points, 13 rebound, five assist line to start the year along with three steals and two blocks a night. It really doesn’t get much better than that and all you are really asking yourself is whether you can stomach the $13K FanDuel salary ($11.6K on DK is a little easier). The answer is, maybe. With a stars and scrubs approach (increasingly difficult on both sites with tight pricing) this is an ideal spot to pay up for Davis. Brooklyn has nothing in the way of interior defense with RHJ and Jarrett Allen starting in the front court. Davis should be able to feast here and I do think paying all the way up for his salary makes a lot of sense.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 27.39 DK - 27.94
The Wizards have had a very tough run of games to open the season. They’ve played a slow Miami team, and then excellent defenses in the Raptors, Blazers, and Warriors. They’ll get the polar opposite on Friday against the Kings. Sacramento is playing the 7th-fastest pace to start the season and have given it up to opposing offenses with a bottom quarter defensive efficiency. This game actually has the highest over/under of the evening (237.5) with the Wizards as four point favorites. Markieff stands to see a lot of minutes if he can keep himself out of foul trouble. That’s always his issue, but less of one against a Kings’ team that doesn’t run all that efficient of an offense.
There are some mid-range plays I like at power forward who could provide some upside. If Rondae Hollis-Jefferson sees his minutes increase after some early season injury/ personal stuff we might be buying low in a good matchup against the Pelicans. There’s also Taj Gibson who typically plays in the mid-30’s minutes but didn’t get there last game when the Wolves were playing from behind. He fits well on FanDuel.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 46.05 DK - 47.98
Towns started the season at $10,900 on FanDuel and $9800 on DraftKings. He’s now down to $8500 and $8000 respectively. There are two ways to look at those numbers. We can assume KAT was overpriced to start the season and is now just venturing into his *correct* salary. There have been two big issues for KAT to start the season, the shooting and the minutes. Those are big issues, but easily correctable. He averaged 35.6 minutes per game last year and this year, because of some weird games and foul trouble is only at 31.8. And he’s a career 54% shooter but this season is only 41%. This is all to say, we are buying low on some (likely) early season run bad in two key areas. I’m all over playing him in this matchup against the Bucks who don’t have much of anything in terms of interior defense. Others won’t like the play because they’re looking at game logs. Don’t be that guy/gal.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 41.75 DK - 41.81
Capela actually takes a little bit of a usage hit with Harden off the court, but it’s not enough to dissuade me from playing the guy on Friday. He’s at an excellent DraftKings price under $7K and should see quality minutes against Marcin Gortat and company for the Clippers. He’s been playing major minutes, and is averaging a 15/10 line on the season but hasn’t put it all together into one big fantasy outing yet. Considering the price has stagnated, but the opportunity hasn’t, I think we are in a great spot to play him on DK where the double-double bonus lives.
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