Daily Fantasy Football Cash Game Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Week 8

After a great weekend here at DFSR, we're riding high, and ready to bring you more winning plays for week 8. We managed to fade Zeke (even after recommending him, woops!), tapped into an underowned Latavius Murray, got some help from the Colts, and outpaced the FanDuel cash game line by nearly 30 points. We can't get too carried away by a good early start to a too-short NFL season, but we're feeling confident that we've got our fingers on the pulse of this NFL season.

As for week 8, we finally have most of the high total games on the main slate, so theoretically writing this article should be a hair easier than usual. But are things ever that easy? Let's read on and find out.

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Quarterback

Jameis Winston FD 7800 DK 6000
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 22.54 DK - 23.26
I don't know what to tell you other than Winston is still too cheap. We're fresh off another week where Winston handily paid these prices, and that's in spite of throwing for 365 yards without a single passing touchdown. Winston did punch one in on the ground (even better for us), and finished the game with 22 fantasy points. All signs are pointed in a position direction for Winston right now. He carried the ball 10 times for 55 yards, and if he will run anything like those numbers going forward we're looking at a built in 4-6 fantasy points per game. The rest of the Tampa Bay running game is in full on shambles, and we could very well see Winston get the Cam Newton treatment, becoming the de facto inside-the-five back even more than he already is. The passing is still totally tolerable, and if the touchdowns come around he'll be worth 10% more than these prices. Vegas is a believer here as well - this game has the 3rd highest total, and the two games above it (the KC and LAR games) carry serious blowout risk. We might get some serious Jameis chalk this week.

Andy Dalton FD 7800 DK 6200
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 21.9 DK - 21.66
This looks a little weird, because Jameis is in the same game and is the same price on FD and a hair cheaper on DK, but don't sleep on the Red Rifle here. The Bengals are favored in this game with the big total, and Tampa Bay has been one of the very worst teams in the NFL against the pass this season. With 13.7 yards per attempt allowed through the air, opposing offenses have to be highly tempted to air it out against them. Dalton came out of the gate hot this season and has faded considerably in the last three weeks, but he hasn't had match-ups like this during those weeks either. What I really like about Dalton here, believe it or not, is his sort of feast or famine nature. Cincinnati seems content to stick with what is working, whether it's Mixon and the running game or Dalton and his receivers. I mentioned that Tampa Bay has been terrible against the pass this season, but they've also been excellent against the run. Their 3.6 yards per carry allowed is the 3rd lowest in the NFL. I think Cinci is smart enough to know this, and try to establish the pass early.

Andrew Luck FD 8300 DK 6300
Opponent OAK
Proj Points FD - 22.68 DK - 23.87
While you (and I) were busy crying that Andrew Luck isn't throwing the ball downfield, he's still been busy putting up some damned good fantasy totals. He's third in the NFL in QB fantasy points, and his price still hasn't returned to its previous levels. It's true that Luck is getting it done differently than he has in the past. His 6.26 yards per attempt is downright terrible, ranking between the brothers Josh: Josh Rosen and Josh Allen. What Luck is missing in efficiency he's making up with raw volume. His 311 lead the NFL, and the Colts' difficulty running the ball means this should continue. I'm not too concerned with Marlon Mack's big week against the Bills. That game script was truly wild and couldn't have favored the running game any more, and it's hard to believe that Luck won't return to 40+ attempts per game in short order. It's not a terrific match-up with Oakland, but in a game with a tight spread I'm still a believer here.

Aaron Rodgers FD 8600 DK 6400
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 22.66 DK - 23.71
If you decide that you want to shoot the moon, Aaron Rodgers is a high-risk and high-reward play. He might even have a reasonable floor here as well. Yes, the Packers are 9 point underdogs against the Rams, and there is a chance the game gets out of hand early. But does that really hurt Rodgers? The Pack have had trouble running the ball this season, and Rodgers is coming off back to back 400+ yard games. The Rams, meanwhile, actually rank dead last in the NFL in terms of yards per attempt allowed to opposing QBs this season. This game has the slate's highest total, and if the Packers are going to try and keep pace with the Rams you have to think Rodgers at least has a solid chance to get his. Whether you want to pay up for it for cash games is a different questions, but taking a chance in big tourneys? Why not?

Running Back

James Conner FD 8000 DK 7500
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 20.19 DK - 21.44
Le'Veon Bell hasn't seen fit to return to camp yet, so we get another week of James Conner. It sure doesn't look like Bell is going to have a lot of leverage with how well Conner is performing in this offense. He's had two nearly identical terrific weeks, going for 110 and 111 yards, catching 4 balls, and scoring 2 touchdowns in each of his last two contests. This week he'll take on Cleveland - the same team he dropped 32 fantasy points on in week 1. Vegas has the Steelers as 8 point favorites here, which makes you think Conner will be in prime position to touch the ball 24-25 times and put up big numbers in the process. If Gurley is too expensive (more on that in a minute) Conner should be the cream of the cash game crop here.

Kareem Hunt FD 8100 DK 7100
Opponent DEN
Proj Points FD - 18.68 DK - 19.16
It might wind up being a week to pay for the upper middle class at running back. The Chiefs have the second highest implied total on the slate, and yes, much of that is due to the meteoric rise of Patrick Mahomes. But don't sleep on Hunt. The Chiefs' running back has managed to get his regardless of the game script, topping 15 fantasy points in every week since week two. He's been their #1 back the whole way, but even more comforting has been his usage in the passing game. In his last two games he's hauled in 10 receptions for 160 yards and three touchdowns. Denver has been positively porous against the run this season, allowing 5.1 yards per attempt on the ground (good for 2nd worst in the NFL). And don't forget that Hunt has been a $9,000 player in the past. I love him as a high floor, high ceiling option here.

Joe Mixon FD 7800 DK 7300
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 17.96 DK - 19.24
So here's the issue at running back this week. I gave the case for Dalton because of Tampa Bay's terrible job against the pass and good stats against the run, so how can I push Mixon forward as well? I'm not totally sure. Mixon's usage has been largely a function of the game script so far this season - he understandably lost his carries in losses to the Steelers and Chiefs, but he had 3 straight 20+ touch games in closer games earlier this season. With Cinci a 4 point favorite in a game with a 54 point total there ought to be enough touches for Dalton and Mixon, though it would feel weird to play both. The thing about running back is, you're going to have to play two of these guys - and while I don't especially love the match-up Mixon should have a good floor here, which is more than you can say for a lot of running backs today.

A quick note on Todd Gurley: Welp, FanDuel finally did it. It's the all-time highest price for a running back, and $11,000 is probably a little too much invest in one player. On DraftKings at $9,800 though you can prepare for another week of Gurley. He's the best running back in the game with the highest total where his team is heavily favored. It's boring to keep talking Gurley though, so let's move on.

If you can't pay up everywhere, Nick Chubb still looks okay to me. I just hesitate to play any running back for a team that's an 8 point underdog.

Wide Receiver

Davante Adams FD 8600 DK 7900
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 19.34 DK - 23.21
Adams has averaged 14 targets in the last three weeks, which would be an historic pace if he managed it for the whole season. But are we so sure the Packers aren't comfortable just trying this until it stops working? In spite of the huge volume, throwing to Adams has still been hugely efficient for the Packers in the last three weeks. He's averaged 8.4 yards per target, even as Rodgers has averaged just 7.9 yards per attempt on the season. In a game that is slated to score a ton of points, and where the Packers are supposed to trail, it's very hard to believe that Adams isn't the most targeted receiver in this game once again - and there's a chance he's the most targeted receiver on the entire slate.

Robert Woods FD 7600 DK 6800
Opponent GB
Proj Points FD - 18.12 DK - 21.06
Woods was a chalk option in week 7, with the prevailing wisdom saying he should slide in and gobble up Cooper Kupps' evacuated targets. This mostly held true, but Woods only wound up with 7 targets. So what happened? Well, Woods went from playing 70+ snaps to just 50 since the Rams were up by approximately six million points in the second half. If you extrapolate the targets he received to his normal snap count, he would have comfortably rested in that 10+ target zone, and you would have seen an excellent week out of him. The Rams have the highest implied total once again this week, and while much of that will go to Gurley and the running game, I don't expect that Goff will throw so few passes again this season. If Kupp comes back I probably won't bother with Woods, but I still think he's playable at these slightly increased prices.

Jarvis Landry FD 6700 DK 7200
Opponent PIT
Proj Points FD - 14.69 DK - 18.84
With how often we've run Landry the last few seasons I'm embarrassed to say that he didn't make his way into our cash game lineups last week even when we wound up playing three Browns in our cash game lineups. And by the way, if you had offered me a bet as to whether I'd ever have three Browns in my cash game lineup I probably would have taken out a mortgage on my house. I digress. Landry is very obviously one of the highest floor receivers in the NFL right now - he's second in the entire league in targets, and it was a welcome sign to see the conversion percentage come around last week. The Browns obviously love the match-up as well - Landry saw 15 targets for 100+ yards in the worst passing weather imaginable in week 1, and you have to think they'll go back to the same plan in week 8. Landry should be one of the highest owned receivers once again.

Tyreek Hill FD 7800 DK 8600
Opponent DEN
Proj Points FD - 18.54 DK - 20.69
He's the #1 receiver on the league's most electric passing attack, and he's still under $8,000 on FanDuel. Hill has now averaged double digit targets over his last four games, and has been heavily featured in the red zone, dropping four touchdowns in his last two games. The price disparity between DK and FD here should shine a light on what a value this guy is on FanDuel right now, and I don't think you should hesitate to play him in any format over there.

 

Tight End

David Njoku FD 5700 DK 4600
Opponent PIT
Proj Points FD - 11.09 DK - 13.56
FanDuel and DraftKings are making no credible effort to stop me from playing Njoku, and at DFS' worst all time position, I'm inclined to just roll it back once again. Njoku's targets dipped to 6 with Landry going off, but I am going to trust the longer sample size and guess that his true target share is something like 8-9 per game, and possibly higher if the Browns trail by as much as Vegas projects. And I ask you - where else are you getting anything resembling a high floor for less than $6,000 at the tight end position? Don't tell me one week of Vance McDonald has you persuaded.

Jimmy Graham FD 6400 DK 4700
Opponent LAR
Proj Points FD - 12.25 DK - 14.85
While I like Njoku on FanDuel, it's a lot closer between him and Graham on DraftKings, where the prices are a lot closer. The case for Graham is a compelling one. He's got the pedigree of a big performer, he's still very cheap, and he's a real option for one of the league's best quarterbacks. With 10 and 9 targets in the last two weeks, we could be seeing him become Rodgers' easy #2 option. If that's the case, he'll be worth 10%+ more than these prices and could produce even then. He's run bad with just one touchdown this season in spite of being the perfect red zone target, and with the Packers likely playing catch-up we should see 9-10 targets once again.

Also considered: Okay, you got me. I am considering Vance McDonald on DraftKings, where he is probably too cheap. I think 8 targets might wind up being his highest come season's end, but you can live with six on these prices. I'd still rather play Graham or Njoku though.

 

This week in Defense

Last week we saw cheap defenses rule the day, with the Colts carrying teams to big tournament success in a dream match-up with the Bills. So should we keep streaming cheap defenses in good match-ups?

Early returns from our lineup optimizer suggest that yes, this is the case.

On DraftKings our system is aghast at the Steelers price against the Browns. I get that Cleveland has looked fiesty with Mayfield under center, but the Steelers are the 7th cheapest defense, and the below them are mostly facing the very best offenses in the league. The Browns have the 6th lowest implied total on the slate, and you still have playmakers on the Steelers defense. Just seems too low from here.

On FanDuel, you have a number of cheap options as well. You can take the Cards against San Francisco, who has a total even lower than the Browns. The Steelers look like a solid option there as well. The Ravens also look pretty good at similarly low prices against Carolina, whom Vegas hates this week as well.

As always you can keep your eyes peeled for news about changes at QB, which inevitably produce good defensive plays as well.

One thing seems to be clear at this point, though - we are very unlikely to be paying up for a defense.

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First time with NFL? Be sure to read our free MLB and NFL Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.