(AP Photo/Gaston De Cardenas)
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Kansas Speedway - Kansas City, KS
Track - 1.5 Mile D-Shaped Oval Intermediate
After a dominant performance by the four cars at Stewart-Haas Racing, the Monster Energy Cup Series heads into Kansas Speedway for the second elimination race of the Playoffs. Just two(Aric Almirola & Chase Elliott) of the remaining 12 drivers enter this weekend locked into the Round of 8 leaving a ton of scenarios. Kevin Harvick is in the best shape of the non-winners as he needs just 11 points to clinch provided he doesn't win the race. The drivers in the worst position outside the cutline are Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson who can win to get in or clinch on points with some help and finally Alex Bowman who would need a win to advance. These scenarios will most definitely lead some different strategies throughout the race making it fun to watch and tough to predict.
For fantasy, with 267 laps in the race, dominator points are back at the top of the list at this mile and a half intermediate track. Looking at the last six races here, there has been one driver to lead 100 or more laps in each race and at least two drivers to lead 50 or more laps in each of the last five races here. Place differential is solely dependant on qualifying as we have seen anywhere from four to 12 drivers(last six races) tally double-digit PD points. With that said, let's take a look at some of the track trends and then dig into some of the top targets.
No surprise here as the "Big 3" have been the dominating drivers here at Kansas since the start of the 2016 season(five races). Kevin Harvick has won two of the last four races here with four Top 5's in those five races. During his Championship season a year ago, Martin Truex Jr. absolutely dominated here winning both races and has led a series-high 380 laps in the last five races. He also leads all drivers in fantasy scoring over since the start of last year. Kyle Busch won the Spring race here in 2016 and is the only other driver besides Harvick to finish Top 10 in each of the last five races. After those three, there are a list of drivers who have been good but not great here and it starts with Kurt Busch who has two Top 5's and three Top 10's in the last five races and then Austin Dillon who only has two Top 10's in that time but has been consistent with an 11.8 average finish.
Kansas has definitely been a veteran's track over the years as Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson lead all active drivers with three career wins apiece but it has been Harvick who has had the edge lately(see current history section) as Jimmie has just one Top 10 in his last five races and has not won here since the 2015 Spring race. After those two we have Martin Truex Jr. and Joey Logano each with two wins but Truex has been much better for fantasy leading 726 laps and more consistent with a 14.5 career average finish(Logano 18.1). To cap off the win list here at Kansas, there are only four other drivers(Kyle Busch, Ryan Newman, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski) who have a win here, Keselowski leading the way with a 13.2 career average finish.
Looking at the fantasy rankings on mile and a half tracks in 2018, Kyle Busch leads the way on both sites as has tallied three wins(Texas, Chicago, Charlotte) and has finished inside the Top 10 in all nine races. Kevin Harvick also has three wins(Kansas, Las Vegas, Atlanta) on the mile and a half tracks this season but just seven Top 10's after two DNF's at Las Vegas to start the playoffs and Charlotte at the Coca-Cola 600. Kyle Larson sits third in fantasy scoring with eight Top 10's in the nine races on mile and a half tracks with two runner-ups and four Top 5's. He will need another strong performance this week sitting outside the cutline. Martin Truex Jr. has just one win on the track type this season but has finished Top 5 seven times in the nine races and won both races here at Kansas last year so he should be near the top of your list this week. Rounding out the Top 5 is Brad Keselowski who has won back to back races on the track type(Las Vegas, Darlington) and overall, he has seven Top 10's in the nine races.
Joey Logano holds on to the #1 spot in the form ranks after his second straight Top 5 finish and has also has four Top 10's in the last six races dating back to the final race of the regular season. After Logano, things tighten up and after his huge win last week at Talladega, Aric Almirola jump up to the #2 spot in the form ranks and has three finishes of 6th or better in the last six. The next three drivers in the form ranks all haev average finishes in the 11 range as well with Denny Hamlin leading the way with three Top 5's. Not pictured above are Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, and Chase Elliott all of whom have wins in the last six races but have not been as consistent. Look for another shake up to the form ranks after the elimination race at Kansas this weekend.
Kyle Busch
He ranks #1 in my overall model this week after posting Top 5 speeds in both final practices and was also posted the Top 10-lap average speeds in both of those practices. He had trouble at Kansas early in his career but has been solid lately with seven straight Top 10's, five Top 5's, and a win in 2016.
Kevin Harvick
He won the Spring race here and has been dominant on mile and half tracks this season tying Kyle Busch with three wins on the track type. While it appears troubling he posted the 20th and 16th fastest speeds in the final two practices he was Top 5 in 10-lap averages in both practices meaning he should have a terrific long run car. At his price, I would consider him a GPP only play this week and would lean to Kyle in cash games.
Aric Almirola
With a win last week at Talladega, Almirola has nothing to lose this week so look for him to push for a second straight win and some bonus points moving forward into the Round of eight. He has finished Top 10 in back to back races after struggling for a long time and has shown a ton of speed post-qualifying ranking 1st in the second practice(6th in 10-lap avg) and third in final practice(2nd in 10-lap avg). He is a great play in all formats.
Darrell Wallace Jr.
The one low-end value play that stands out this week is Darrell Wallace Jr. as he will be starting 29th while posting the 16th and 25th fastest speeds in final practice. This Spring in his first race here in teh Cup Series he placed 23 after starting 21st and a similar result would mean some place differential upside which would be fantastic at his price, especially on DraftKings.
Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR Cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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