Oklahoma City Thunder's Paul George plays against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first half of an NBA preseason basketball game Friday, Oct. 5, 2018, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)
It's our first big Friday night of the season and we've got a bunch of big plays to consider. Forget all that TGIF nonsense. This is a work night folks. Let's get to it with some cash plays for FanDuel and DraftKings.
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Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 35.54 DK - 35.93
Our system called out Payton as a DK play for opening night and he didn’t disappoint, He triple-doubled in his first game as a Pelican with 10’s across the board in 37 minutes. Payton is never going to be much of a shooter but he still found a way to get up 13 shots against Houston. The safest part of Payton right now is the minutes. With a big early win against the Rockets along with he and Holiday pairing well in the backcourt, Payton should have a higher floor for the considerable future. On Friday, he’ll get a very slow Kings’ team (slowest pace in league last season) who thankfully completely stink on defense. They made no fundamental improvements (outside of Bagley in the draft) and if anything could step up the pace this season if Fox is on the court more. Payton will likely be a pretty chalky play for this slate and his price isn’t up to his current opportunity.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 24.21 DK - 24.67
The good news on Ntilikina is that among the Knicks’ opening night starters, his minutes were the safest. He played 34 minutes and finished with a pretty underwhelming line with five points, five rebounds and one assist. One has to believe this is absolute floor fantasy-wise if he’s going to get consistent run. But it is a bit troubling if he can’t find his place in an offense that will struggle most of the season. He gets another dream matchup against a fast-paced Nets’ team that gives it up to opposing backcourts. Last season, opposing guards averaged 10% more scoring than league against the Nets. I’m stilling buying Frankie on the FD price and the robust minutes, but he might not have a ton of top-end upside. Additionally, I still think you can consider Trey Burke but man he got burned off all the minutes in game one.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 30.67 DK - 31.03
Do we want to start trusting the Kings after one game? Oh man, I don’t but after seeing how they ran their rotations to start the season I suppose we can be somewhat bullish on their starters’ run. Fox fired out of the box with 38 minutes against the Jazz and an excellent 21 points, seven assists, four rebounds, and three steals. He gets a significantly better matchup against the Pelicans on Friday who are nowhere near the defensive caliber of Utah. I’m still a little gun shy on Sacramento only because we have multiple seasons of them just jacking around minutes without a care in the world about your average DFS player (or their fans, or really anyone). But we could be turning over a new leaf to start this season and if that’s the case then Fox is still a major bargain.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 37.43 DK - 38.42
Russell Westbrook still hasn’t been cleared for contact and hasn’t practiced since his surgery so I think we can safely say he isn’t going to play on Friday. Schroder was the overwhelming chalk on the first night of the season and easily paid valued against the Warriors, helping keep the Thunder in the game with 21 points, eight rebounds and six assists. The 19 shots were second on the team behind only Paul George and that should continue to be the case as long as Russ has to sit. Schroder was a high usage guy with the Hawks and is some of the reason OKC brought him in during the offseason. He was supposed to lead the second unit charge, but has been thrust into the starting role with Westbrook sidelined. The DraftKings’ price is getting a little steep, but considering he still qualifies as a shooting guard on FanDuel, we can roster him in cash games because the time on ball will be more than just about anyone else at the position.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 31.59 DK - 31.87
Levert got a chance to shine on opening night with the Nets really short on wings because of injury. Allen Crabbe, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Demarre Carroll all out. The former two will play on Friday but Carroll remains out. I suspect Levert sticks in the starting lineup with Harris and Dudley moving back to the bench. Levert is a guy we’ve been waiting on to gain minutes in the Nets’ system considering how versatile he is on both ends of the court. He put up a 27/4/4 line in the first game in a standout performance. Levert is unlikely to put up 18 shots again considering the guys the Nets are getting back, but I do think the minutes are coming on the safer side. He can get to the basket, uses his length well and works in the transition game. I suspect the Nets want to play him a lot early in the season and he fits into their pace game.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 27.12 DK - 27.57
The Bucks aren’t going to f@#$ around this season. I think Coach Bud knows who his best rotations are ahead of time (correctly) and is going to run them all season. The key takeaway from game one is this: Brogdon is the starting shooting guard and the backup point guard. It’s the reason Dellavedova saw no minutes. The Bucks will likely run this rotation, giving Brogdon the chance to pile on points even if his upside is rather capped. He played 38 minutes in the first game with 10 points and six assists. Those aren’t going to overwhelm you but the court time should. At a thinner position, this kind of run is paramount and he’s still coming cheaper on DraftKings.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 48.45 DK - 46.53
Kawhi sure didn’t look like a guy who basically just sat out an entire season. In the Raptors’ opener, he jacked up 22 shots, on his way to 24 points and 12 rebounds. It is going to be the rare game Kawhi doesn’t register a steal or a block so on that front we might even think he ran a bit bad. I’m very bullish on Leonard’s fantasy prospects this season and think he’s still coming at much too low a price for how the Raptors plan on using him. If the goal is to get him to resign in the offseason, then running him major minutes, allowing a high usage and basically letting him ball is going to be the way to go. That played itself in game one and should be the case going forward. This is a bad matchup against a defensively sound Celtics’ team, but in an East matchup that could define a lot of the season, I think we get Kawhi on full run.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 42.74 DK - 43.66
The Thunder sans-Westbrook turns into a team with really only George and Schroder (and I suppose Adams) as threats to score on the offensive end. PG put up 23 shots against the Warriors on Tuesday on his way to 27 points. He didn’t get on the board (two rebounds) but added four steals which goes a long way on FanDuel. It stands to reason the shooting % improves here and it’s a great sign that he put up 12 threes against Golden State. The Clippers are a much better matchup from a DFS perspective and George makes for just another way to live with lineups in the upper middle-tier rather than spending all the way up for the top end superstars like Giannis and Brow.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 23.31 DK - 24.07
It didn't appear as if Simmons would play all that much to start the season because he was dealing with some injuries. But then he came out and ran 33 minutes against the Heat on Wednesday. It's tough to totally trust the Magic *plan* going forward considering they are a team that stinks and hasn't had much in the way of roadmap for more than a few seasons. But Simmons is a guy they like to play minutes and will contribute enough (at these prices) to warrant a consideration in cash games if you are looking to get away from the position on the cheap. He got up 11 shots on Wednesday in a slower matchup against the Heat. This game against the Hornets isn't a marked improvement in pace, but Simmons' price hasn't moved either.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 36.06 DK - 36.93
Mirotic came out firing against the Rockets shooting 11-20 from the field and 6-8 from three. Those are obviously run hot numbers that he isn’t going to recreate every single night. But I was encouraged by the rebounds and do think his minutes are rather safe with him in the starting lineup. Randle cuts into the run somewhat and is probable to play on Friday. But Mirotic is going to run up against worse in the way of defense against the Kings who don’t understand defensive schemes and don’t (currently) have the personnel to deploy them even if they did. Mirotic isn’t locked into the same kind of usage every night, but with Davis playing more on the interior (the latter attempted zero threes in the first game) he’ll be able to continue to stretch defenses.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 41.28 DK - 44.33
Revenge Game! (For all you dopes who believe in that kind of nonsense.) Love will face off against his former team (which he’s done many times over the last couple of seasons) but this time as *the man*. He struggled against the Raptors on Wednesday, but still got up 18 shots (most on the team), got to the line 14 times (an insane effective usage rate) and chipped in seven rebounds. He’s clearly the go-to guy on offense here for Cleveland and only the struggles from the field have this price in check. I suspect we only see it climb over the short term with the minutes guaranteed and the Cavs having literally nothing else in the way of offense. Love will be a $9K player in the short term so it makes sense to buy on him now.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 26.17 DK - 25.73
Gibson got himself into foul trouble early and then randomly just sat for the better part of the second quarter on Wednesday. It’s unclear if that was some kind of rotational mixup or just a lapse on Thibs because he got full run in the second half. I suspect we see him play in the low-to-mid 30’s minutes and that’s a great spot to be especially on FanDuel where we need to roster two power forwards. Gibson is just the kind of guy we want to buy on the low side when we think he’s been burned off minutes in the short term. I think that’s the case here and Cleveland isn’t the kind of team that can out-rotation a guy like Taj. He should beast on the blocks and is coming way too cheap on both sites if you think the minutes will be there.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 34.76 DK - 33.78
This follows the De’Aaron Fox line of thinking in that, do we trust the Kings? It helps WCS that Kosta Koufos is out again on Friday, leaving plenty of center minutes for the big guy. But you can forgive me if I’m still a but gun shy on this team from a minutes’ perspective. That being said, WCS played a ton in the first game (38 minutes) and put up an excellent 23/7/4 line which is probably the baseline expectation we can consider on this much run. If the Pelicans bring that faster pace (hell, the Kings played Utah on Wednesday) and Cauley-Stein can stay out of foul trouble against Davis (no small feat) then he should positively crush these salaries. There are a couple of big *ifs* here but this is looking like a complete value play if only a couple of things go right.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 36.86 DK - 39.04
I get it, playing this guy seems like death because of the minutes (or sometimes lack thereof). But this is a fantastic spot against the Nets. They won't be able to completely punish his lack of defense on the interior and he should be able to go to work on them on the offensive end. If there's a game where he's going to push towards 30 minutes, this is the one. In 27 minutes against the Hawks on Wednesday, Kanter went for 16/11 and 40.25 FanDuel points. You'll take that per minute fantasy scoring all day and I'm banking on him playing more minutes in this matchup.
Consider Myles Turner
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