We’re almost at the halfway point of the season if you can believe that. We know Alabama is dominating and would likely be double-digit favorites if the Championship game were to be played tomorrow. Georgia looks like the second-best team in the nation, again. And we think Notre Dame may have found their quarterback. But much of the college landscape is still up in the air. Week Six is highlighted by the Red River Rivalry where Oklahoma will look to keep their playoff hopes alive against Texas. This will be their 113th meeting dating back to October 10, 1900. Saturday caps off with Notre Dame taking on Virginia Tech in what could be a statement game for Ian Book and the Irish. Now let’s get down to business and break this slate down.
DK 10200
Opponent Texas
There are a few guys worthy of this top spot, but the nod goes to Murray. Many people will play Dwayne Haskins and I’ll certainly have my own exposure, but Murray runs whereas Haskins does not. At only $400 more I feel it’s worth the added safety of rushing production for the small bump in salary. Ohio State is projected for more points, but with such a high line and so many weapons, Haskins could get burned by early rushing touchdowns. As good as Oklahoma is, the production is largely dominated by Murray. The loss of Anderson has their run game in shuffle mode leaving Murray and the passing game to do much of the damage. So, even with a less favorable game script compared to Haskins I still prefer the production share advantage for Murray. Again, it’s close, real close. The Sooners are currently eight-point favorites with a total sitting right at 60, which feels a little low, but it is an emotional game so I can see it starting off slow offensively. Texas has shown a smidge of defensive swagger recently, but they haven’t faced an offense anywhere near as explosive as Oklahoma. This is going to be a stiff test for the Longhorns. On the flip side, Texas has shown a decent proficiency in the passing game and the Sooners have shown some susceptibility at defending the pass. Hence why the total feels a little low to me. I will certainly have exposure to multiple quarterbacks on the slate but in terms of cash, it's really hard to argue against Murray.
DK 4900
Opponent Ohio State
On the opposite end of the salary spectrum is Peyton Ramsey. It’s hard to feel safe rostering Ramsey for your cash lineups, but the data suggests he’s the correct play at just $4900. Before I get to the why on Ramsey let me preface by saying if you’re structuring your lineup with only one quarterback stick with one of the big guns for cash. Ohio State is coming off a huge win against my Nittany Lions and may, just may, come out a little flat in what is perceived as a cake matchup. Indiana is a heavy dog at +25 and should be passing much of the game. Ramsey is in his second year as the Hoosiers starting signal caller and is still improving, but he has at least 15 fantasy points each game this season. Against Michigan State, he passed for 272 yards and two scores. When you compare him to the other options at the same price point you can make an argument to use him in your Superflex slot for cash and even stronger argument as a GPP play.
DK 7700
Opponent Maryland
This may not be the best value play on the board, but Higdon is the easiest lock and load cash play at the position on the slate. Many people thought the arrival of Shea Patterson would ignite the Wolverines passing game and take their offense to a new level. Nope. I think this simply speaks to how the coach and system are a better indicator of fantasy production as opposed to actual personnel. The running back position is extremely dicey this week so I am happy to roster Higdon as the 3rd-most expensive running back. In contested games, Michigan has given Karan the ball at least 20 times per game. In blowout wins Karan has averaged 146 yards and a score, hardly a ship-sinker. As 17 point favorites, the game script is very favorable for Higdon to see another heavy workload. Chris Evans missed last game which helped contribute to Higdon’s 30 carries. Keep an eye on the injury news and if Evans sits again Higdon almost becomes a must play across all formats, but especially for cash.
DK 8800
Opponent Wake Forest
This dude is coming off a heck of a week. Clemson was all geared up last week to show off their freshman phenom Trevor Lawrence, but it was Etienne that carried the Tigers to the win. After getting down early and losing Lawrence to injury, Etienne went bananas and racked up 203 yards and three touchdowns on 27 carries to literally carry Clemson to 5-0. Lawrence is expected to back under center this Saturday and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he chucks it all over the field. That said, there is more than enough offense here for Etienne to still deliver the goods. Wake Forest hasn’t stopped anyone all year and has just enough of a passing attack to keep the game flow going. Last week Lawrence was making his first career start and didn't look great prior to leaving the game due to injury. Now he’ll be making his first start on the road. Dabo really doesn’t want to get behind the eight-ball like last week while on the road. I expect Clemson to pound the ball in the early going and try to control the game before opening up the passing attack. I don’t love his price, but the position as a whole is pretty gross.
DK 7700
Opponent Texas
Brown has been as good as any receiver in the country and plays in one of the most potent offenses. He is averaging 29.4 Draftkings points per week and at just $7700 that’s pretty sick value. He won't blow you away with his volume as he's only registered more than six receptions in one game this season. But he will wow you with his big-play ability and knack for the end zone. If you can look past his donut against Army, Brown has scored in every game and surpassed the 100-yard plateau in three out of four games. As I mentioned above, the Sooners don’t appear capable or committed to the run game and have relied heavily on the arm of Murray. Well, Murray sure has locked in on Brown as his top target. His five touchdowns in four games, again excluding whatever happened against Army, is not a fluke and he should once again find pay dirt this Saturday against the Longhorns. Hands down Brown is my top play across all formats and I will be hard pressed to make a lineup that doesn't include him.
DK 5600
Opponent Northwestern
Price verse opportunity. The price is forgiving and the opportunity is sky high. As of this writing, Michigan State is dealing with a plethora of injuries to their receiving corps leaving Davis III the last man standing. Felton is already second on the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns behind Cody White. White is out indefinitely. There is a chance Darrell Stewart Jr.suits up, but he’s yet to practice this week. The Spartans don’t run the ball particularly well averaging less than 4.3 YPC out of their three main rotation ball carriers. This week's game against Northwestern will likely be a slow grinding field position game where Davis III could see a season-high in targets. Assuming Stewart is out there is simply too much opportunity at this salary to ignore. If Stewart does play I will likely pivot to Lil’Jordan Humphrey.
Punt Plays to consider: Scotty Washington (Wake Forest), Cam Green (Northwestern), Brandon Sowards (Michigan State, if Stewart is out)
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