(AP Photo/Ralph Freso)
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Richmond International Raceway
Track - .75 Mile D-Shaped Oval Short Track
It was a crazy playoff opener at Las Vegas where seven of the 16 contenders had issues or were involved in a wreck, four of them(Harvick, Jones, Elliott, Hamlin) making a trip to the garage early. This has proved that playoff points from stage and race wins throughout the season are so important as Kevin Harvick, despite the wreck, still sits fourth in the standings only nine points back of leader Brad Keselowski. One race down, two to go in this first round and this weeks race at Richmond is extremely important as the elimination race comes next week at the new Charlotte Roval where drivers have never been on track in competition.
Richmond is a .75-mile flat track with just 14 degrees of banking and while it falls under the umbrella of short tracks, I won't be weighing track type as high as all three short tracks(Martinsville, Bristol, Richmon) are so much different. For fantasy, dominator points are even more important this week as there are 400 laps and over the last six race here, there has been at least one driver(twice there has been two) to lead 100 or more laps. There has also been three or more drivers to lead 50 or more laps in three straight and four of the last five races here at Richmond.
No driver has been better here at Richmond over the last two years(five races) than Denny Hamlin. He returns with five straight Top 10's including a win in 2016 and four straight Top 5 finishes with 255 laps led. Despite the encumbered finish for Joey Logano in the Spring of 2017, the win still counts on the stats sheet and like Hamlin, he has finished Top 10 here in each of the last five finishes. Kevin Harvick hasn't won here since 2013 and has only led 82 laps in the last five races but he has been consistent with four Top 5's in those races. Brad Keselowski is the hottest driver in NASCAR at the moment and while he hasn't won here at Richmond since 2014, he has not finished outside the Top 11 in five straight races and with some poor qualifying, has crushed place differential value and has averaged 82.9 DK/84.7 FD points per race over the last three. Kyle Busch returns after a win here in the Spring and is one of just five drivers to have four Top 10 finishes in the last five races at Richmond.
Like I mentioned above, Kyle Busch won here in the Spring which was his fifth career win at Richmond to go along with a series-best(active drivers) 16 Top 5's in 26 career races. After him, there are three drivers(Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson) who each have three wins here at the track. Hamlin has been the most consistent with a 9.3 career average finish and he also leads all active drivers with 1,659 laps led here. He also leads all drivers in average fantasy points(70.9 DK/84.6 FD) per race over the last six at the track. Harvick and Jimmie have a bit larger sample size but it has been Harvick who has been more consistent with 13 Top 5's and 22 Top 10 finishes with 1,069 laps led. There are four other drivers(Joey Logano, Kurt Busch, Clint Bowyer, Matt Kenseth) who have multiple wins here but Logano leads the way when looking at consistency with eight Top 5's and a 11.5 career average finish.
Things have sure changed now that we are rolling in the playoffs. Brad Keselowski has been red-hot with three straight wins and vaults to the #1 spot in the form ranks going into this weeks race. He did admit not having the fastest car in two of those races but strategy and execution on pit road were elite. Kyle Larson is still seeking his first win of the season and was close last week finishing second and is the only other driver with at least three Top 5's in the last six races and he has also been a great dominator target leading a series-high 325 laps in that time. The biggest surprise for me this week is that Kyle Busch is the only driver in the "Big 3" to make the list. He hasn't been at his best lately but has finished Top 10 in five of the last six races. His older brother, Kurt Busch, also has five Top 10's in the last six races but leads Kyle in average fantasy points thanks to a win in that time. Rounding out the Top 5 is Young Ryan Blaney who is the only other driver with an average finish below 10 in the last six races.
Kyle Busch(DK - $11,800 FD - $13,800)
He won the race here in the Spring coming through the field form the 32nd starting position and leads all driver with five career wins at the track. While all the short tracks on the circuit are different, it does take a certain kind of aggressiveness and Kyle has that and leads all drivers with five wins on short tracks since the beginning of the 2016 season. He will be my top target this week going into the weekend.
Denny Hamlin(DK - $9,600 FD - $13,000)
It will be hard to fade Hamlin this week at a discount from top drivers, especially on DraftKings. He has been very consistent here at Richmond as he returns with six straight finishes of 6th or better including a win at the night race in 2016. He got into a wreck in the playoff opener at Las Vegas and will need a strong finish here to jump back inside the cutline going into a very unpredictable elimination race at the Charlotte Roval.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.(DK - $6,400 FD - $6,600)
This pick will most definitely depend on qualifying but the #17 car of Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is a nice value on both sites in the mid $6K range. He has finished 23rd or better in four straight races here with three Top 20's and a Top 10. His most recent form has not been good at all finishing 30th or worse in two straight but before that, he had reeled off five straight Top 25's with three Top 20's. I likely won't target him in cash games unless he has a poor qualifying run but will be targeting in GPP formats at these prices.
Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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