Daily Fantasy NFL Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings Cash Games - Week 3 - 9/23/18

Week 3 is right around the corner and as we get a little deeper into the season, the pricing on FanDuel and DraftKings starts to tighten up. The sites have adjusted for early season opportunity and the options don't necessarily look as clearcut like we saw in the first couple of weeks.

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Quarterback

Jimmy Garoppolo FD 7400 DK 6500
Opponent KC
Proj Points FD - 19.51 DK - 20.49
To say Jimmy G’s first two games have failed to live up the end of the 2017 season hype train would be an understatement. He really struggled in Week 1 on the road against a very good Viking’s defense and Week 2 against the Lions saw the 49ers establishing the run in a game they led by 17 entering the 4th quarter. Prepare to see a shift in Week 3. For all of the Patrick Mahomes’ hype / KC offensive juggernaut, their defense has allowed an ungodly 860 yards through the air in the first two weeks. That’s 100 more yards than the next closest team (Tampa Bay). Sure, teams have been forced to play catch up against the Mahomes “Every single drive I get the ball I score a TD” offense. But the defense was bad last year (30th in DVOA) and really doesn’t look at all improved this year. Garoppolo completed 70% of his passes in Week 2 working his 18 completions to eight different receivers. He also threw for to touchdowns and had a drive *shortened* by a Matt Breida 66 yard run in the third. This game should script very well for Jimmy G in that he’s the QB with the second-most implied points as an underdog.

Deshaun Watson FD 7700 DK 6100
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 21.28 DK - 22.39
Carson Wentz FD 7400 DK 6200
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 20.93 DK - 21.79
All right, stay with me here for a second. I know both of these guys are basically less than a year removed from ACL surgery and Wentz is making his season debut after sitting out the first two games. But I think in both cases we could be looking at buy-low opportunities. Let’s start with Watson first. For as much as he struggled in Week 1 against the Pats, Week 2 marked a bounce-back game in which he completed 69% of his passes for 310/2 and also got out and ran for 44 yards (making it 84 on the season). Tennessee controlled the clock on the ground (they ran 34 times), something the Giants may try to do with Saquon Barkley. But the Giants’ offense kind of seems like a mess and I do think, if anything, Watson stands to see more passing attempts in this game. The Giants have allowed much through the air, but admittedly their first two games were against Dak Prescott and Blake Bortles. Mostly, what I’m interested here for Watson is the low price. For a running quarterback with a legit WR1 and a bolstered passing attack with WIll Fuller back in the mix, this price is really only going to go up.

And then there’s Wentz. Should we take a wait and see approach with the Eagles’ quarterback? Vegas doesn’t think so. They have the Eagles at 27 implied points against the Colts (the fifth-highest number of the main slate). Wentz is the 10th-most expensive quarterback on FanDuel which could look like an absolute bargain by the time the week is done. The Eagles may be conservative with him out of the box, but he gets an ideal matchup to start with. The Colts are allowing a 73% completion percentage against to start the season and one has to assume the Eagles take to the air just a bit more with Ajayi out of the mix. For sure, this one is more speculative but the price has me on Wentz.

A quick note on Mr. Patrick Mahomes: I know the guy has been the second-coming and all. I get it and the Chiefs have the highest implied total of the day (kind of by a lot). I just think so much of the price jump has been on the back of an unsustainable TD rate. It will be interesting to see his cash game ownership considering how amazing he's been through two weeks.

Running Back

Todd Gurley FD 9300 DK 9200
Opponent LAC
Proj Points FD - 23.23 DK - 25.04
Week 2 saw only one running back carry the ball more than 20 teams for his team (Joe Mixon and he’s hurt now). Otherwise, running the ball in bulk wasn’t the play for almost any team in the NFL, and especially not just from one player. It’s early in the season and the list of “huge volume” running backs in the NFL already seems awfully short. Through the first two weeks, Gurley leads the NFL in rushing attempts (39) and he’s third in overall implied usage (Rush attempts + Receiving targets) behind James Conner (buoyed by a comical Week 1) and Saquon Barkley who just had like a bajillion (rounded) Week 2 pass targets. Gurley gets a rather ideal situation in Week 2 with the Rams as a -7 home favorite against the Chargers who ranked 25th in DVOA against the rush last season. They kept Kareem Hunt relatively in check for Week 1 and we have no real takeaways from their Week 2 game against the Bills (though I suppose it’s worth mentioning that McCoy ran for over four yards per carry in a throwaway game). The key for Gurley is his supreme *safety* relative to any other running back in the league. I don’t see any main slate back with anything close to Gurley in terms of projectable usage.

Giovani Bernard FD 6400 DK 5900
Opponent CAR
Proj Points FD - 14.74 DK - 16.62
Joe Mixon is expected to miss about the next month with a knee issue, leaving the Bengals needing to replace a dude who’d averaged 19 carries and four targets a game through the first two weeks. It sure seems like Gio Bernard will pick up a lot of the slack, though the team did promote Mark Walton from the practice squad. Bernard is a fairly known commodity at this point and has shown at least moderate success in the past when given the rock as the lead back. In Week 16 last season he operated as their primary RB1, carrying the ball for 23/116/1 against the Lions with Mixon out. So there’s at least something of a comp for how the Bengals could handle this situation. The Week before that game he was in a similar situation, but the Bengals got their doors blown off by the Vikings. Though Bernard still touched the ball 19 times (14 carries, 5 targets) in a game of catch-up. His versatility and ability to operate in the receiving game does give him a higher floor because different game scripts work. The Bengals are underdogs here to a slower Panthers team that’s been good on defense for the last couple of seasons. But they allowed Tevin Coleman/ Ito Smith to go 25/153 in Week 2 and Zeke Elliott averaged over 4.5 yards per carry in Week 1. I mostly like Bernard’s price and opportunity here especially out of the Flex spot on both sites.

Corey Clement FD 5800 DK 4300
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 13.71 DK - 15.49
As of this writing, it sure looks like Jay Ajayi is going to sit out Week 3 with a back injury he suffered in Week 2 (before reentering the game). The Eagles are likely without Darren Sproles as well and that’s starting to leave them very thin at RB. In Ajayi’s *absence* last week, Clement out-snapped Wendell Smallwood 33-24 and saw 12 looks (six carries, six targets) for 85 total yards and a rushing touchdown. It wouldn’t shock me to have Smallwood and Clement maybe even split carries in this game, with Clement’s track record showing the Eagles would just rather have him on the field. I’m fully prepared to pivot off this pick over the course of the week if we here definitive proclamations from Eagles’ brass as to who the *starter* is. And that could get us into something of a tricky spot. But the way things are shaking out, I’d much rather go cheaper at RB this week and pay up at WR.

Wide Receiver

Michael Thomas FD 9000 DK 8900
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 19.19 DK - 23.38
Through the first two weeks of the season, Thomas is second overall in targets (30), first in receptions (28 - 93% conversion rate), second in yards (269) and tied for second in TDs (3). No other player has commanded a higher percentage of his team’s target share (38%) and Thomas has most definitely made the leap into the very upper tier of WR1. Hell, he might be the best of the bunch at this point considering how much the team throws to him and just how outstanding the conversion rate is through two weeks. He’s had optimal conditions, two home games in the dome with the Saints trying to come from behind in both. Week 3 he’ll get another dome game, this time against an Atlanta team that got torched by WR1s in 2017 (25th in DVOA). Last season, Thomas lined up only 12% of the time in the slot. This season it’s up to 35% and clearly paying big time dividends. The Saints are moving him into advantageous matchups and though you will for sure see regression on the conversion rate, the passing volume makes up for it. This is a thin spread (ATL -3) big total (53) game that could easily turn into a shootout.

Nelson Agholor FD 6600 DK 6100
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 14.13 DK - 17.17
We were bullish on Agholor’s chances for a solid game going into Week 2 and it looked correct with the young WR finishing at 12 targets and an 8/88/1 line. Not much has changed (including the price) for Agholor going into a Week 3 matchup against the Colts, except the Eagles are getting Wentz back (did I mention that?). Despite the Colts' win over the Redskins in Week 2, this is still a weaker secondary ranked 32nd in DVOA against the pass in 2017. Andy Dalton torched them Week 1 and the Alex Smith dink and dunk show saved them in Week 2 (even though the latter was very efficient and threw for nearly 300 yards). With the Eagles losing options left and right (Ajayi, Sproles, Mike Wallace and Alshon Jeffrey will all sit in Week 3), the offense becomes very concentrated. Agholor operates almost exclusively out of the slot over the last two seasons, and this year has converted 73% of his targets. he could be able to sustain with Wentz back.

Allen Robinson FD 6500 DK 5400
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 12.67 DK - 14.97
It’s tough for wide receivers to switch teams and get a quick connection with a quarterback, especially when the quarterback is young (and not all that accurate). But Robinson has emerged in the early season as the clear WR1 for the Bears, leading the team in targets (21) and converting at a steady clip (67%, 14/144). He gets a dream matchup against the Cardinals in Week 3 who’ve allowed the third-most total yards to opponents this season and 6th-most passing yards per game. What’s even more remarkable about the passing yards is that on a per attempt basis, they are the second worst. It’s just that teams have crushed them both weeks and don’t need to pass late in the game against Arizona. Such may be the case again on Sunday, but Chicago has issues of its own on offense and I don’t think the blowout is necessarily in order. Robinson draws a good matchup against a weak secondary and should continue to dominate target share here.

Tight End

George Kittle FD 5800 DK 4500
Opponent KC
Proj Points FD - 12.82 DK - 15.5
The case for Kittle is very much the same one I made for Jimmy G. It stands to reason the 49ers will have to pass and when that was the story in Week 1, Kittle led the team in targets (9) and receiving yards (90). KC could get Eric Berry back this week which would for sure, help their passing defense. But I’m still on Kittle who didn’t see much of a price change after Week 2 which was scripted away from the passing attack. He remains a clear cash game value at a position that’s highly volatile.

Zach Ertz FD 7000 DK 6800
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 13.03 DK - 15.83
You have to like two things here:
1. Ertz is the most targeted TE on the season with 23 (next closest is 16 - Kelce and Cook)
2. He’s getting Carson Wentz back under center.
Foles looked his way for sure, but with Wentz there the majority of 2017 Ertz finished as the fourth-most targeted tight end in football and scored eight touchdowns. With the Eagles still without Alshon Jeffrey and now losing Mike Wallace for the rest of the season, they are very thin on pass-catchers. If you think Wentz starts even a little slow here, deferring to Ertz possibly even more than usual could produce a lot of upside from the tight end.

Defense

Minnesota Vikings FD 4900 DK 4300
Opponent BUF
Proj Points FD - 9.96 DK - 9.96

Chicago Bears FD 4300 DK 3500
Opponent ARI
Proj Points FD - 7.64 DK - 7.64

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